08-19-2018, 11:01 PM
*** 20-Aug-18 World View -- Afghanistan's president Ghani announces ceasefire with Taliban
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Afghanistan's president Ghani announces ceasefire with Taliban
****
![[Image: g180819b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180819b.jpg)
Afghan security forces stand guard in Ghazni, Afghanistan, on Aug. 15, 2018. (EPA)
Ashraf Ghani, the president of Afghanistan, gave an Independence
Day speech on Sunday announcing a ceasefire with the Taliban,
on the condition that the Taliban also announce a ceasefire.
The ceasefire is to begin on Monday, the first day of the Eid
holiday, and is to end on November 19, which is Mohammed's birthday.
<QUOTE>"As we approach Eid-ul-Adha, and to respect the wishes
of different segments of Afghan society including religious
scholars, political parties, politicians, women and civil society
leaders, youth and members of high peace council in all 34
provinces, and to respect the wishes of the religious scholars of
the Islamic world that were gathered in the holy mosques and to
respect the wishes of the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC)
and the custodians of the two-holy mosques, the King of Saudi
Arabia, we announce a ceasefire that would take effect from
tomorrow, Monday, the day of Arafa, till the day of the birth of
the prophet (PBUH) i.e., Milad-un-Nabi, provided that the Taliban
reciprocate."<END QUOTE>
President Ghani further added that peace is one of the main demands of
the nation. He said it would not be acceptable that there would be
ceasefire in part of the country while that conflict would continue in
its other parts.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement approving
of the ceasefire, and saying "It is time for peace":
<QUOTE>"The United States welcomes the announcement by the
Afghan government of a ceasefire conditioned on Taliban
participation. This plan responds to the clear and continued call
of the Afghan people for peace....
There are no obstacles to talks. It is time for
peace."<END QUOTE>
Pakistan's Foreign Office issued a statement saying: "Pakistan fully
supports all such efforts that contribute to achieving durable
stability and lasting peace in Afghanistan. The people of Afghanistan
deserve it."
It sounds like peace for our time. I hope everyone in Afghanistan can
now go home and get a nice quiet sleep. Khaama News (Afghanistan) and Reuters and Dawn (Pakistan)
****
**** Taliban says no peace in Afghanistan until foreign 'occupation' withdraws
****
This was the week that the Taliban surprised government forces and
captured the strategic town of Ghazni long before the Afghan army
could react. It took almost a whole week to recapture the town, and
that was possible only because they were supported by US warplanes
that conducted dozens of airstrikes.
Even today, Ghazni is still unsafe, with the roads peppered with
unexploded IEDs (improvised explosive devices) and mines.
The Taliban conducted numerous other operations across the country in
the last week alone. This is the middle of the annual Taliban
fighting season, and the Taliban are in the ascendant, and so it's
very unlikely that the Taliban will agree to a three month ceasefire.
The Taliban have said for years that they will never negotiate with
the "corrupt regime" -- the Afghan government. They are demanding
negotiations with the American military, with the objective of the
negotiations to be the full withdrawal of the "occupying forces" --
the US and Nato forces.
On Saturday, just hours before Ghani announced the supposed ceasefire
with the Taliban, Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada issued
a statement repeating all their demands:
<QUOTE>"Afghan Mujahid Nation! This year's [Eid holiday]
approaches us as our Jihadi struggle against the American
occupation is on the threshold of victory due to the help of Allah
Almighty. The infidel invading forces have lost all will of
combat, their strategy has failed, advanced technology and
military equipment rendered useless, sedition and
corruption-sowing group defeated and the arrogant American
generals have been compelled to bow to the Jihadic greatness of
the Afghan nation...
Bringing peace and security is from among the highest priorities
of the Islamic Emirate, but peace will remain elusive during an
occupation and neither is salvation possible without the
establishment of an Islamic authority....
This war that is has been called the longest, costliest and most
futile war in American history, plunged the entire region and the
world including Afghanistan into insecurity and chaos.
A war that has cost Americans loss of security, prestige and
mental wellbeing globally and even inside America itself...
But the Islamic Emirate continues to call America towards
understanding and sound logic instead of force and points them
towards options that can guarantee the secession and end of this
long war, and that lone option is to end the occupation of
Afghanistan and nothing more....
The regime based in Kabul and forced upon the Afghan people at the
expense of huge American military, financial and human loss has
disappointed American officials and they have lost all trust in
the regime due to corruption, incompetency, impotence and failure.
The leadership of this corrupt regime has been given to a figure
who has spent all his time in power squabbling with officials of
his government, battling his chief executive, battling his
deputies, battling his cabinet and even battling his governors....
Even now if they show readiness for direct dialogue with the
Islamic Emirate by accepting the ground realities of Afghanistan,
we will view it as a sound step by America.
Sincere, transparent and result-oriented negotiations are an
important part of our policy, But negotiations must be sincere and
productive free from any fraud and deception and must revolve
around the core issue and not be used for propaganda or misleading
the common thinking."<END QUOTE>
The statement goes on to give additional demands for negotiations with
the Americans, and for American withdrawal.
Each time I write an article about the Afghan war, it seems more and
more like a Gothic fantasy. Ghani's statement and Akhundzada's are so
completely out of touch with one another, that it seems clear that
they can only be play-acting. Pompeo's statement that "It's time for
peace" seems even more surreal. And the statement from Pakistan's
foreign office seems to be mocking and making fun of all of them.
Ghani and Pompeo are not stupid men, so there's no chance that they
believe anything they're saying.
And we haven't even mentioned ISIS-K, the Afghanistan branch of ISIS,
which is not included in the supposed ceasefire.
As I've said, the only thing that makes sense is the larger strategy
for the region. If America withdraws, it would destabilize the
region, and would be a political disaster for the American
administration. The larger picture is that Donald Trump and the
military understand that this war cannot be won, but they also
understand that war with China and Pakistan is approaching. As war
with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep
American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain
several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air
bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will
be valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances,
having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are
defeated or not. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Long War Journal and Long War Journal
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Ashraf Ghani,
Mike Pompeo, Nato, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport,
Hibatullah Akhundzada, Ghazni,
ISIS Khorasan, Wilayah Khorasan, ISIS-K, ISKP
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Afghanistan's president Ghani announces ceasefire with Taliban
- Taliban says no peace in Afghanistan until foreign 'occupation' withdraws
****
**** Afghanistan's president Ghani announces ceasefire with Taliban
****
Afghan security forces stand guard in Ghazni, Afghanistan, on Aug. 15, 2018. (EPA)
Ashraf Ghani, the president of Afghanistan, gave an Independence
Day speech on Sunday announcing a ceasefire with the Taliban,
on the condition that the Taliban also announce a ceasefire.
The ceasefire is to begin on Monday, the first day of the Eid
holiday, and is to end on November 19, which is Mohammed's birthday.
<QUOTE>"As we approach Eid-ul-Adha, and to respect the wishes
of different segments of Afghan society including religious
scholars, political parties, politicians, women and civil society
leaders, youth and members of high peace council in all 34
provinces, and to respect the wishes of the religious scholars of
the Islamic world that were gathered in the holy mosques and to
respect the wishes of the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC)
and the custodians of the two-holy mosques, the King of Saudi
Arabia, we announce a ceasefire that would take effect from
tomorrow, Monday, the day of Arafa, till the day of the birth of
the prophet (PBUH) i.e., Milad-un-Nabi, provided that the Taliban
reciprocate."<END QUOTE>
President Ghani further added that peace is one of the main demands of
the nation. He said it would not be acceptable that there would be
ceasefire in part of the country while that conflict would continue in
its other parts.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement approving
of the ceasefire, and saying "It is time for peace":
<QUOTE>"The United States welcomes the announcement by the
Afghan government of a ceasefire conditioned on Taliban
participation. This plan responds to the clear and continued call
of the Afghan people for peace....
There are no obstacles to talks. It is time for
peace."<END QUOTE>
Pakistan's Foreign Office issued a statement saying: "Pakistan fully
supports all such efforts that contribute to achieving durable
stability and lasting peace in Afghanistan. The people of Afghanistan
deserve it."
It sounds like peace for our time. I hope everyone in Afghanistan can
now go home and get a nice quiet sleep. Khaama News (Afghanistan) and Reuters and Dawn (Pakistan)
****
**** Taliban says no peace in Afghanistan until foreign 'occupation' withdraws
****
This was the week that the Taliban surprised government forces and
captured the strategic town of Ghazni long before the Afghan army
could react. It took almost a whole week to recapture the town, and
that was possible only because they were supported by US warplanes
that conducted dozens of airstrikes.
Even today, Ghazni is still unsafe, with the roads peppered with
unexploded IEDs (improvised explosive devices) and mines.
The Taliban conducted numerous other operations across the country in
the last week alone. This is the middle of the annual Taliban
fighting season, and the Taliban are in the ascendant, and so it's
very unlikely that the Taliban will agree to a three month ceasefire.
The Taliban have said for years that they will never negotiate with
the "corrupt regime" -- the Afghan government. They are demanding
negotiations with the American military, with the objective of the
negotiations to be the full withdrawal of the "occupying forces" --
the US and Nato forces.
On Saturday, just hours before Ghani announced the supposed ceasefire
with the Taliban, Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada issued
a statement repeating all their demands:
<QUOTE>"Afghan Mujahid Nation! This year's [Eid holiday]
approaches us as our Jihadi struggle against the American
occupation is on the threshold of victory due to the help of Allah
Almighty. The infidel invading forces have lost all will of
combat, their strategy has failed, advanced technology and
military equipment rendered useless, sedition and
corruption-sowing group defeated and the arrogant American
generals have been compelled to bow to the Jihadic greatness of
the Afghan nation...
Bringing peace and security is from among the highest priorities
of the Islamic Emirate, but peace will remain elusive during an
occupation and neither is salvation possible without the
establishment of an Islamic authority....
This war that is has been called the longest, costliest and most
futile war in American history, plunged the entire region and the
world including Afghanistan into insecurity and chaos.
A war that has cost Americans loss of security, prestige and
mental wellbeing globally and even inside America itself...
But the Islamic Emirate continues to call America towards
understanding and sound logic instead of force and points them
towards options that can guarantee the secession and end of this
long war, and that lone option is to end the occupation of
Afghanistan and nothing more....
The regime based in Kabul and forced upon the Afghan people at the
expense of huge American military, financial and human loss has
disappointed American officials and they have lost all trust in
the regime due to corruption, incompetency, impotence and failure.
The leadership of this corrupt regime has been given to a figure
who has spent all his time in power squabbling with officials of
his government, battling his chief executive, battling his
deputies, battling his cabinet and even battling his governors....
Even now if they show readiness for direct dialogue with the
Islamic Emirate by accepting the ground realities of Afghanistan,
we will view it as a sound step by America.
Sincere, transparent and result-oriented negotiations are an
important part of our policy, But negotiations must be sincere and
productive free from any fraud and deception and must revolve
around the core issue and not be used for propaganda or misleading
the common thinking."<END QUOTE>
The statement goes on to give additional demands for negotiations with
the Americans, and for American withdrawal.
Each time I write an article about the Afghan war, it seems more and
more like a Gothic fantasy. Ghani's statement and Akhundzada's are so
completely out of touch with one another, that it seems clear that
they can only be play-acting. Pompeo's statement that "It's time for
peace" seems even more surreal. And the statement from Pakistan's
foreign office seems to be mocking and making fun of all of them.
Ghani and Pompeo are not stupid men, so there's no chance that they
believe anything they're saying.
And we haven't even mentioned ISIS-K, the Afghanistan branch of ISIS,
which is not included in the supposed ceasefire.
As I've said, the only thing that makes sense is the larger strategy
for the region. If America withdraws, it would destabilize the
region, and would be a political disaster for the American
administration. The larger picture is that Donald Trump and the
military understand that this war cannot be won, but they also
understand that war with China and Pakistan is approaching. As war
with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep
American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain
several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air
bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will
be valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances,
having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are
defeated or not. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Long War Journal and Long War Journal
Related Articles:
- Taliban attack on Ghazni brings America's Afghanistan strategy into question (14-Aug-2018)
- ISIS-K bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan, targets returning vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum (23-Jul-2018)
- Taliban launches major military operation in Farah province in Afghanistan (16-May-2018)
- Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan (01-May-2018)
- ISIS-K suicide bomber kills over 50 in Kabul, Afghanistan, registering to vote (23-Apr-2018)
- Brief recent generational history of Afghanistan (25-Jul-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Ashraf Ghani,
Mike Pompeo, Nato, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport,
Hibatullah Akhundzada, Ghazni,
ISIS Khorasan, Wilayah Khorasan, ISIS-K, ISKP
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
