08-29-2018, 10:22 PM
*** 30-Aug-18 World View -- Diplomats fear that proposed Serbia-Kosovo peace deal will lead to Balkans war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Diplomats fear that proposed Serbia-Kosovo peace deal will lead to Balkans war
****
![[Image: g180829b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180829b.jpg)
Serbia president Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo president Hashim Thaci (Reuters)
The breakup of Yugoslavia led to the Balkan wars of the 1990s, which
were the bloodiest European wars since the end of World War II, and
have not been completely settled. In particular, there is still a
border dispute between Kosovo and Serbia, and there are still
Nato peacekeepers in the region.
Neither Serbia nor Kosovo is a member of the European Union, although
Serbia is going through the accession process. Kosovo claimed its
independence in 2008 and is recognized by the EU, Nato and the US, but
five countries] -- Russia, Greece, Cyprus, Serbia, Spain, and
Azerbaijan -- consider it to be a "fake country," and do not recognize
its independence.
But now the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia have say that they have
reached a peace agreement between the two countries.
Serbia president Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo president Hashim Thaci
announced an agreement on Saturday to swap some territories and reach
a permanent peace agreement. Part of the deal would involve
unspecified "border corrections" or "territory swaps" between the two
countries. It's believed that the proposal is that four
municipalities in the north of Kosovo which host a majority Serbian
population could be given to Serbia while Bujanovac and Presevo,
municipalities in Serbia with mainly ethnic Albanian populations,
might be divided and given to Kosovo.
This proposal has caused something of a panic among the people
living in the areas involved. For example, a Serb living in
a mostly Albanian region of Serbia would suddenly find that
suddenly he's a citizen of Kosovo, and no longer in Serbia.
Another issue is that the deal could set a precedent that other
countries might try to follow, including Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Macedonia and Montenegro.
Kosovo's president Thaci said on Saturday:
<QUOTE>"Kosovo is determined to reach a binding legal
agreement with Serbia. The time to do this is now. We have a
short window of opportunity. It is not easy at all; it is very,
very difficult. That’s why everybody has to be behind
it."<END QUOTE>
Despite the widespread opposition to the idea, it may be adopted
anyway because it would allow both Serbia and Kosovo to join the
European Union. The (laughable) theory is that once both countries
are in the EU, then the border adjustment won't make any difference
because borders will no longer matter. Euro News and B92 (Serbia) and Bloomberg
****
**** Former Balkan diplomats say that land swap proposal ignores 1,000 years of bloodshed
****
There are certainly plenty of historical examples to show that setting
borders to separate different ethnic groups doesn't always work, and
may never work. An example that comes to mind is the 1947 agreement
to partition the Indian subcontinent, supposedly putting all the
Hindus into India and all the Muslims into Pakistan. The result was
the Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the twentieth
centuries, when Muslims in India traveled to Pakistan, and Hindus in
Pakistan traveled to India, with any property disputes settled by
murder. That war has not been settled to this day, with
the threat of a new war in Kashmir and Jammu.
Another example is the United Nations partitioning of Palestine in
1948, creating the state of Israel. That led to the extremely bloody
war between Arabs and Jews. That war also has not been settled to
this day, with the threat of a new war between Arabs and Jews.
So it's not surprising that three former High Representative’s for
Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Carl Bildt, Paddy Ashdown, and Christian
Schwarz-Schilling -- are expressing strong objections to the
land swap proposal. In the letter they wrote jointly, they
said:
<QUOTE>"We know Bosnia and Herzegovina well enough to know
that this will give comfort and support to those who would break
up the country, who are already calling for a return to the status
quo ante in Dayton, unravelling all we and our Bosnian partners
have worked for over more than two decades.
We know the EU and Europe well enough to know that our principles
and our bloody history teach us that sustainable peace can only
come when we learn to live in multi-ethnic communities, rather
than re-drawing borders to create mono-ethnic ones;
We can in short, think of no policy more likely to lead us back to
division and conflict in the Balkans than the one which some are
apparently now supporting."<END QUOTE>
Paddy Ashdown, interviewed on the BBC, added the following about the
border adjustments (my transcription):
<QUOTE>"But in reality, I think it will set in train a series
of events that will certainly add to those who want to destabilize
Bosnia Herzegovina, certainly undermine the possibility of the
solution in Macedonia, and if it should happen, it will certainly
institute a movement of population of minorities from all of those
areas back to their home territory, and by the way it will be
hugely comforting to Vladimir Putin who is trying to do exactly
the same thing in Ukraine. It's a very, very very bad thing, and
a very dangerous one.
I've been the high representative in Bosnia for four years in this
matter, and I could have always, in a heartbeat, in a murmer, have
got all of the national leaders, the ethnic leaders of their
populations, to divide the country up into little ethnic pockets
to preserve their ability to exercise control over their people.
But the founding principle of Europe, one that we have learned for
over a thousand years of bloodshed, is that we do not redraw
borders to make nationally or ethnically homogeneous areas. We
can make peace in a multi-ethnic spaces that are already there.
And this is going exactly against what the practice in the Balkans
have so far been, it will institute a round of border changes and
I have no doubt whatsoever that it will destabilize states, it
will move towards more ethnically pure states that are bound to
come into conflicts with each other, and will offend the European
principle that we do not redraw borders.
The positive suggestion is that we continue to try to make sure
that the borders that have been drawn in Kosovo are ones in which
everybody across the whole of Kosovo can join the European Union,
and if they achieve standards to do so, then borders won't
matter."<END QUOTE>
It's interesting that those who support territory swaps and those
who oppose territory swaps predict the same outcomes -- that
borders will no longer matter. I know of no historical precedent
to support that assumption, and it's hard to believe that Ashdown
or anyone who is familiar with the history of the Balkans could
possibly believe that.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, The Balkans region,
which has been the site of repeated crisis wars throughout history
between the Christian civilization and the Muslim civilization, may
well provide the start of the next major European war. Balkan Insight and Paddy Ashdown and N1 (Balkans) and Map Universal
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yugoslavia, Balkans, Serbia, Kosovo,
Aleksandar Vucic, Hashim Thaci, Bujanovac, Presevo,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro,
Carl Bildt, Paddy Ashdown, Christian Schwarz-Schilling
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Diplomats fear that proposed Serbia-Kosovo peace deal will lead to Balkans war
- Former Balkan diplomats say that land swap proposal ignores 1,000 years of bloodshed
****
**** Diplomats fear that proposed Serbia-Kosovo peace deal will lead to Balkans war
****
Serbia president Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo president Hashim Thaci (Reuters)
The breakup of Yugoslavia led to the Balkan wars of the 1990s, which
were the bloodiest European wars since the end of World War II, and
have not been completely settled. In particular, there is still a
border dispute between Kosovo and Serbia, and there are still
Nato peacekeepers in the region.
Neither Serbia nor Kosovo is a member of the European Union, although
Serbia is going through the accession process. Kosovo claimed its
independence in 2008 and is recognized by the EU, Nato and the US, but
five countries] -- Russia, Greece, Cyprus, Serbia, Spain, and
Azerbaijan -- consider it to be a "fake country," and do not recognize
its independence.
But now the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia have say that they have
reached a peace agreement between the two countries.
Serbia president Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo president Hashim Thaci
announced an agreement on Saturday to swap some territories and reach
a permanent peace agreement. Part of the deal would involve
unspecified "border corrections" or "territory swaps" between the two
countries. It's believed that the proposal is that four
municipalities in the north of Kosovo which host a majority Serbian
population could be given to Serbia while Bujanovac and Presevo,
municipalities in Serbia with mainly ethnic Albanian populations,
might be divided and given to Kosovo.
This proposal has caused something of a panic among the people
living in the areas involved. For example, a Serb living in
a mostly Albanian region of Serbia would suddenly find that
suddenly he's a citizen of Kosovo, and no longer in Serbia.
Another issue is that the deal could set a precedent that other
countries might try to follow, including Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Macedonia and Montenegro.
Kosovo's president Thaci said on Saturday:
<QUOTE>"Kosovo is determined to reach a binding legal
agreement with Serbia. The time to do this is now. We have a
short window of opportunity. It is not easy at all; it is very,
very difficult. That’s why everybody has to be behind
it."<END QUOTE>
Despite the widespread opposition to the idea, it may be adopted
anyway because it would allow both Serbia and Kosovo to join the
European Union. The (laughable) theory is that once both countries
are in the EU, then the border adjustment won't make any difference
because borders will no longer matter. Euro News and B92 (Serbia) and Bloomberg
****
**** Former Balkan diplomats say that land swap proposal ignores 1,000 years of bloodshed
****
There are certainly plenty of historical examples to show that setting
borders to separate different ethnic groups doesn't always work, and
may never work. An example that comes to mind is the 1947 agreement
to partition the Indian subcontinent, supposedly putting all the
Hindus into India and all the Muslims into Pakistan. The result was
the Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the twentieth
centuries, when Muslims in India traveled to Pakistan, and Hindus in
Pakistan traveled to India, with any property disputes settled by
murder. That war has not been settled to this day, with
the threat of a new war in Kashmir and Jammu.
Another example is the United Nations partitioning of Palestine in
1948, creating the state of Israel. That led to the extremely bloody
war between Arabs and Jews. That war also has not been settled to
this day, with the threat of a new war between Arabs and Jews.
So it's not surprising that three former High Representative’s for
Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Carl Bildt, Paddy Ashdown, and Christian
Schwarz-Schilling -- are expressing strong objections to the
land swap proposal. In the letter they wrote jointly, they
said:
<QUOTE>"We know Bosnia and Herzegovina well enough to know
that this will give comfort and support to those who would break
up the country, who are already calling for a return to the status
quo ante in Dayton, unravelling all we and our Bosnian partners
have worked for over more than two decades.
We know the EU and Europe well enough to know that our principles
and our bloody history teach us that sustainable peace can only
come when we learn to live in multi-ethnic communities, rather
than re-drawing borders to create mono-ethnic ones;
We can in short, think of no policy more likely to lead us back to
division and conflict in the Balkans than the one which some are
apparently now supporting."<END QUOTE>
Paddy Ashdown, interviewed on the BBC, added the following about the
border adjustments (my transcription):
<QUOTE>"But in reality, I think it will set in train a series
of events that will certainly add to those who want to destabilize
Bosnia Herzegovina, certainly undermine the possibility of the
solution in Macedonia, and if it should happen, it will certainly
institute a movement of population of minorities from all of those
areas back to their home territory, and by the way it will be
hugely comforting to Vladimir Putin who is trying to do exactly
the same thing in Ukraine. It's a very, very very bad thing, and
a very dangerous one.
I've been the high representative in Bosnia for four years in this
matter, and I could have always, in a heartbeat, in a murmer, have
got all of the national leaders, the ethnic leaders of their
populations, to divide the country up into little ethnic pockets
to preserve their ability to exercise control over their people.
But the founding principle of Europe, one that we have learned for
over a thousand years of bloodshed, is that we do not redraw
borders to make nationally or ethnically homogeneous areas. We
can make peace in a multi-ethnic spaces that are already there.
And this is going exactly against what the practice in the Balkans
have so far been, it will institute a round of border changes and
I have no doubt whatsoever that it will destabilize states, it
will move towards more ethnically pure states that are bound to
come into conflicts with each other, and will offend the European
principle that we do not redraw borders.
The positive suggestion is that we continue to try to make sure
that the borders that have been drawn in Kosovo are ones in which
everybody across the whole of Kosovo can join the European Union,
and if they achieve standards to do so, then borders won't
matter."<END QUOTE>
It's interesting that those who support territory swaps and those
who oppose territory swaps predict the same outcomes -- that
borders will no longer matter. I know of no historical precedent
to support that assumption, and it's hard to believe that Ashdown
or anyone who is familiar with the history of the Balkans could
possibly believe that.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, The Balkans region,
which has been the site of repeated crisis wars throughout history
between the Christian civilization and the Muslim civilization, may
well provide the start of the next major European war. Balkan Insight and Paddy Ashdown and N1 (Balkans) and Map Universal
Related Articles:
- European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans (07-May-2017)
- Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania' (29-Apr-2017)
- 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants (11-May-2015)
- Sarajevo Serbs unveil monument to Gavrilo Princip, who triggered World War I (29-Jun-2014)
- Europe cheers the capture of Serbian Ratko Mladic, the butcher of Srebrenica (27-May-2011)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yugoslavia, Balkans, Serbia, Kosovo,
Aleksandar Vucic, Hashim Thaci, Bujanovac, Presevo,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro,
Carl Bildt, Paddy Ashdown, Christian Schwarz-Schilling
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
