09-01-2018, 10:54 PM
*** 2-Sep-18 World View -- Worldwide alarm as the US ends aid to UNRWA Palestinian refugee agency
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Worldwide alarm as the US ends aid to UNRWA Palestinian refugee agency
****
![[Image: g180901b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180901b.jpg)
From 2011: Latakia Palestinian refugee camp being bombed and destroyed by Bashar al-Assad. Since 2011, Shia/Alawite al-Assad has been committing genocide against Sunni Arabs, including Palestinians (AFP)
International governments are expressing alarm that the decision to
end all US aid to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)
could destabilize the Mideast and create increased radicalism.
UNRWA provides services to Palestinian Arabs living in Jordan,
Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and the West Bank. There are 1.5 million
registered Palestinians living in 58 recognized Palestinian refugee
camps. An additional 3-4 million Palestinian refugees and descendants
live in "unofficial camps where Palestine refugees are concentrated,
such as Yarmouk, near Damascus," according to UNWRA.
UNRWA's services include education, health care, relief and social
services, camp infrastructure and improvement, microfinance and
emergency assistance, and support in times of armed conflict. UNRWA
provides these services to all Palestinian refugees and their
descendants.
UNRWA is dependent on funding from UN Member nations, with the United
States having been the biggest donor. In 2017, the US provided $364
million to the agency, with other member states donated $650 million.
The US on Friday announced that it would cut all aid, giving as
a reason that UNRWA programs are "irredeemably flawed."
UNRWA spokesman Chris Gunness expressed "deep regret and
disappointment" at the U.S. decision:
<QUOTE>"We reject in the strongest possible terms the
criticism that UNRWA's schools, health centers, and emergency
assistance programs are 'irredeemably flawed.'
It is the failure of the political parties to resolve the refugee
situation which perpetuates the continued existence of
UNRWA.<END QUOTE>
A spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas denounced the
decision as "a flagrant assault against the Palestinian people and a
defiance of UN resolutions." He added, "Such a punishment will not
succeed to change the fact that the United States no longer has a role
in the region and that it is not a part of the solution."
PA Foreign Minister Riad al-Malki said that the US decision would
backfire and draw strong reactions from several countries that oppose
the “American policy of thuggery.” He said that the Palestinians,
together with Jordan and EU countries, will launch a diplomatic
campaign to urge many countries to fund UNRWA.
In fact, the German government on Friday said that it
will significantly increase its support for UNRWA, although
it would not be enough to make up the agency's current
shortfall of $217 million.
Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said:
<QUOTE>"It is therefore all the more important that we, as
the European Union, jointly undertake further efforts. ... The
loss of this organization could unleash an uncontrollable chain
reaction."<END QUOTE>
Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said that the US decision
violates international law and the UN resolution that established
UNRWA. He added:
<QUOTE>"[The US is] not entitled to support or bless the
theft of Palestinian lands and illegal Israeli colonialism. It has
no right to act at the whim of [American business magnate,
investor and philanthropist] [Sheldon Adelson and [Prime
Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu. ...
The US decisions regarding Jerusalem, the settlements and the
refugees destroy the international law and undermine security and
stability in the region. They are a gift to the forces of
extremism and terrorism in the region."<END QUOTE>
Other Palestinian officials made several angry accusations directed at
the Trump administration:
So as it turns out, these three accusations are pretty much true.
UNRWA and
Deutsche Welle and Haaretz and Jerusalem Post
****
**** UNRWA's support for exponentially growing Palestinian population is unsustainable
****
On Friday, the US State Department issued this statement:
<QUOTE>"The Administration has carefully reviewed the issue
and determined that the United States will not make additional
contributions to UNRWA. When we made a U.S. contribution of $60
million in January, we made it clear that the United States was no
longer willing to shoulder the very disproportionate share of the
burden of UNRWA’s costs that we had assumed for many
years. Several countries, including Jordan, Egypt, Sweden, Qatar,
and the UAE have shown leadership in addressing this problem, but
the overall international response has not been sufficient.
Beyond the budget gap itself and failure to mobilize adequate and
appropriate burden sharing, the fundamental business model and
fiscal practices that have marked UNRWA for years – tied to
UNRWA’s endlessly and exponentially expanding community of
entitled beneficiaries – is simply unsustainable and has been in
crisis mode for many years. The United States will no longer
commit further funding to this irredeemably flawed operation. We
are very mindful of and deeply concerned regarding the impact upon
innocent Palestinians, especially school children, of the failure
of UNRWA and key members of the regional and international donor
community to reform and reset the UNRWA way of doing
business. These children are part of the future of the Middle
East. Palestinians, wherever they live, deserve better than an
endlessly crisis-driven service provision model. They deserve to
be able to plan for the future.
Accordingly, the United States will intensify dialogue with the
United Nations, host governments, and international stakeholders
about new models and new approaches, which may include direct
bilateral assistance from the United States and other partners,
that can provide today’s Palestinian children with a more durable
and dependable path towards a brighter tomorrow."<END QUOTE>
The reference to "UNRWA’s endlessly and exponentially expanding
community of entitled beneficiaries" refers to the fact that
UNRWA is providing services to all descendants of the original
1948 refugees. UNRWA was set up to provide services to about
750,000 refugees of the bloody war between Jews and Arabs that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of
the state of Israel. These refugees were moved into camps in
Lebanon, Jordan and Syria.
It was thought at the time that these refugees would move out of these
camps and become citizens of the various countries in the region.
Instead, UNRWA's services have made it possible for the refugees to
stay in the camps, and for their children and grandchildren to stay
there as well. And so there's an exponentially growing population of
descendants of the original refugees, and the entire population now
totals 5.1 million, and is continuing to grow exponentially. The
means that the amount of aid that's required is also growing
exponentially at the same rate. The State Department announcement
says that this "business model," which depends on exponentially
growing donations, is unsustainable, and that's true.
For the same reason, the "right of return" is delusional. When
UNRWA was first formed, providing services to 750,000 refugees,
perhaps it might have been possible for Israel to absorb
a signficant number of them. But now the number of "refugees"
is at 5.1 million, and is growing exponentially, and it's not
reasonable to expect Israel to absorb the exponentially growing
population.
Early in August, leaked January e-mail messages emerged from Jared
Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, indicating that the
Trump administration does indeed want to do away with UNRWA.
According to published excerpts:
<QUOTE>"It is important to have an honest and sincere effort
to disrupt UNRWA. ... This [agency] perpetuates a status quo, is
corrupt, inefficient and doesn’t help peace."<END QUOTE>
The logic behind this statement is that the existence of UNRWA, which
is dependent on exponentially growing donations to service an
exponentially growing population of refugee descendants, is giving
this population a false hope that they might one day leave their
refugee camp and go home again to their grandparents' houses in
Israel. This is obviously never going to happen, and so the best way
to get to a new peace agreement is to begin by removing the agency
that makes a peace agreement impossible.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. The Trump administration is
generally aware of all this, having been educated by Steve Bannon,
whom I worked with off and on for many years.
Trump believes that he can get a peace deal in the Mideast. Every
president for decades has tried to do the same, with no success.
Trump's approach is to create political chaos, to destroy the
status quo, so it will be necessary to renegotiate everything
to bring peace. That's why the US Embassy was moved to Jerusalem and
why now aid to UNRWA is ending. This is the approach he's taken with
China, North Korea, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. As I've said many
times, I'm not going to criticize Trump for taking steps to prevent a
world war -- or a Mideast war -- even if preventing such a war is
impossible. US State Dept. and Al Jazeera and Fox News and Jerusalem Post
Related Articles:
****
**** US military cancels $300 million in aid to Pakistan
****
The U.S. military said it has made a final decision to cancel $300
million in aid to Pakistan that had been suspended over Islamabad's
perceived failure to take decisive action against militants. In the
past, Trump has accused Pakistan of rewarding past assistance with
"nothing but lies and deceit." Reuters
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA,
Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, West Bank, Chris Gunness,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Riad al-Malki,
Heiko Maas, Saeb Erekat, Jared Kushner
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Worldwide alarm as the US ends aid to UNRWA Palestinian refugee agency
- UNRWA's support for exponentially growing Palestinian population is unsustainable
- US military cancels $300 million in aid to Pakistan
****
**** Worldwide alarm as the US ends aid to UNRWA Palestinian refugee agency
****
From 2011: Latakia Palestinian refugee camp being bombed and destroyed by Bashar al-Assad. Since 2011, Shia/Alawite al-Assad has been committing genocide against Sunni Arabs, including Palestinians (AFP)
International governments are expressing alarm that the decision to
end all US aid to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)
could destabilize the Mideast and create increased radicalism.
UNRWA provides services to Palestinian Arabs living in Jordan,
Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and the West Bank. There are 1.5 million
registered Palestinians living in 58 recognized Palestinian refugee
camps. An additional 3-4 million Palestinian refugees and descendants
live in "unofficial camps where Palestine refugees are concentrated,
such as Yarmouk, near Damascus," according to UNWRA.
UNRWA's services include education, health care, relief and social
services, camp infrastructure and improvement, microfinance and
emergency assistance, and support in times of armed conflict. UNRWA
provides these services to all Palestinian refugees and their
descendants.
UNRWA is dependent on funding from UN Member nations, with the United
States having been the biggest donor. In 2017, the US provided $364
million to the agency, with other member states donated $650 million.
The US on Friday announced that it would cut all aid, giving as
a reason that UNRWA programs are "irredeemably flawed."
UNRWA spokesman Chris Gunness expressed "deep regret and
disappointment" at the U.S. decision:
<QUOTE>"We reject in the strongest possible terms the
criticism that UNRWA's schools, health centers, and emergency
assistance programs are 'irredeemably flawed.'
It is the failure of the political parties to resolve the refugee
situation which perpetuates the continued existence of
UNRWA.<END QUOTE>
A spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas denounced the
decision as "a flagrant assault against the Palestinian people and a
defiance of UN resolutions." He added, "Such a punishment will not
succeed to change the fact that the United States no longer has a role
in the region and that it is not a part of the solution."
PA Foreign Minister Riad al-Malki said that the US decision would
backfire and draw strong reactions from several countries that oppose
the “American policy of thuggery.” He said that the Palestinians,
together with Jordan and EU countries, will launch a diplomatic
campaign to urge many countries to fund UNRWA.
In fact, the German government on Friday said that it
will significantly increase its support for UNRWA, although
it would not be enough to make up the agency's current
shortfall of $217 million.
Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said:
<QUOTE>"It is therefore all the more important that we, as
the European Union, jointly undertake further efforts. ... The
loss of this organization could unleash an uncontrollable chain
reaction."<END QUOTE>
Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said that the US decision
violates international law and the UN resolution that established
UNRWA. He added:
<QUOTE>"[The US is] not entitled to support or bless the
theft of Palestinian lands and illegal Israeli colonialism. It has
no right to act at the whim of [American business magnate,
investor and philanthropist] [Sheldon Adelson and [Prime
Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu. ...
The US decisions regarding Jerusalem, the settlements and the
refugees destroy the international law and undermine security and
stability in the region. They are a gift to the forces of
extremism and terrorism in the region."<END QUOTE>
Other Palestinian officials made several angry accusations directed at
the Trump administration:
- that Trump wants to collapse UNRWA and end it completely.
- that Trump wants to remove any possibility of "right of return" of
Palestinian refugees.
- that Trump wants to blackmail the Palestinians into accepting is
(soon to be announced) peace plan for the Mideast.
So as it turns out, these three accusations are pretty much true.
UNRWA and
Deutsche Welle and Haaretz and Jerusalem Post
****
**** UNRWA's support for exponentially growing Palestinian population is unsustainable
****
On Friday, the US State Department issued this statement:
<QUOTE>"The Administration has carefully reviewed the issue
and determined that the United States will not make additional
contributions to UNRWA. When we made a U.S. contribution of $60
million in January, we made it clear that the United States was no
longer willing to shoulder the very disproportionate share of the
burden of UNRWA’s costs that we had assumed for many
years. Several countries, including Jordan, Egypt, Sweden, Qatar,
and the UAE have shown leadership in addressing this problem, but
the overall international response has not been sufficient.
Beyond the budget gap itself and failure to mobilize adequate and
appropriate burden sharing, the fundamental business model and
fiscal practices that have marked UNRWA for years – tied to
UNRWA’s endlessly and exponentially expanding community of
entitled beneficiaries – is simply unsustainable and has been in
crisis mode for many years. The United States will no longer
commit further funding to this irredeemably flawed operation. We
are very mindful of and deeply concerned regarding the impact upon
innocent Palestinians, especially school children, of the failure
of UNRWA and key members of the regional and international donor
community to reform and reset the UNRWA way of doing
business. These children are part of the future of the Middle
East. Palestinians, wherever they live, deserve better than an
endlessly crisis-driven service provision model. They deserve to
be able to plan for the future.
Accordingly, the United States will intensify dialogue with the
United Nations, host governments, and international stakeholders
about new models and new approaches, which may include direct
bilateral assistance from the United States and other partners,
that can provide today’s Palestinian children with a more durable
and dependable path towards a brighter tomorrow."<END QUOTE>
The reference to "UNRWA’s endlessly and exponentially expanding
community of entitled beneficiaries" refers to the fact that
UNRWA is providing services to all descendants of the original
1948 refugees. UNRWA was set up to provide services to about
750,000 refugees of the bloody war between Jews and Arabs that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of
the state of Israel. These refugees were moved into camps in
Lebanon, Jordan and Syria.
It was thought at the time that these refugees would move out of these
camps and become citizens of the various countries in the region.
Instead, UNRWA's services have made it possible for the refugees to
stay in the camps, and for their children and grandchildren to stay
there as well. And so there's an exponentially growing population of
descendants of the original refugees, and the entire population now
totals 5.1 million, and is continuing to grow exponentially. The
means that the amount of aid that's required is also growing
exponentially at the same rate. The State Department announcement
says that this "business model," which depends on exponentially
growing donations, is unsustainable, and that's true.
For the same reason, the "right of return" is delusional. When
UNRWA was first formed, providing services to 750,000 refugees,
perhaps it might have been possible for Israel to absorb
a signficant number of them. But now the number of "refugees"
is at 5.1 million, and is growing exponentially, and it's not
reasonable to expect Israel to absorb the exponentially growing
population.
Early in August, leaked January e-mail messages emerged from Jared
Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, indicating that the
Trump administration does indeed want to do away with UNRWA.
According to published excerpts:
<QUOTE>"It is important to have an honest and sincere effort
to disrupt UNRWA. ... This [agency] perpetuates a status quo, is
corrupt, inefficient and doesn’t help peace."<END QUOTE>
The logic behind this statement is that the existence of UNRWA, which
is dependent on exponentially growing donations to service an
exponentially growing population of refugee descendants, is giving
this population a false hope that they might one day leave their
refugee camp and go home again to their grandparents' houses in
Israel. This is obviously never going to happen, and so the best way
to get to a new peace agreement is to begin by removing the agency
that makes a peace agreement impossible.
As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. The Trump administration is
generally aware of all this, having been educated by Steve Bannon,
whom I worked with off and on for many years.
Trump believes that he can get a peace deal in the Mideast. Every
president for decades has tried to do the same, with no success.
Trump's approach is to create political chaos, to destroy the
status quo, so it will be necessary to renegotiate everything
to bring peace. That's why the US Embassy was moved to Jerusalem and
why now aid to UNRWA is ending. This is the approach he's taken with
China, North Korea, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. As I've said many
times, I'm not going to criticize Trump for taking steps to prevent a
world war -- or a Mideast war -- even if preventing such a war is
impossible. US State Dept. and Al Jazeera and Fox News and Jerusalem Post
Related Articles:
- Israel prepares for war on two fronts, Gaza and Syria (15-Jul-2018)
- Israel will close crossing point to Gaza in retaliation for incendiary kites (10-Jul-2018)
- Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now (01-Jun-2018)
- Thousands of Syrians flee into Jordan to escape bombing in Daraa (22-Jun-2018)
- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
****
**** US military cancels $300 million in aid to Pakistan
****
The U.S. military said it has made a final decision to cancel $300
million in aid to Pakistan that had been suspended over Islamabad's
perceived failure to take decisive action against militants. In the
past, Trump has accused Pakistan of rewarding past assistance with
"nothing but lies and deceit." Reuters
Related Articles:
- Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC (07-Aug-2018)
- Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again (30-Apr-2018)
- Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan (26-Nov-2013)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA,
Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, West Bank, Chris Gunness,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Riad al-Malki,
Heiko Maas, Saeb Erekat, Jared Kushner
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
