09-04-2018, 11:22 PM
*** 5-Sep-18 World View -- Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Syria and Russian forces prepare to 'clean out' the 'terrorists' in Idlib
****
![[Image: g180904b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180904b.jpg)
Syrian firefighters try putting out a fire in a building that was hit by Russian air strikes in Idlib, on Tuesday (AFP)
Ever since Syria's army took control of Daraa in southern Syria,
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and Russia's president Vladimir
Putin have been declaring the war almost over and won. ( "22-Jul-18 World View -- Bashar al-Assad declares victory in southern Syria as opponents are bused out"
)
There's just one more quick battle to be fought, they've been
suggesting, the battle to take control of Idlib province.
Airstrikes by Russian warplanes struck targets in Idlib on Tuesday,
after a lull of several weeks, although Syrian warplane airstrikes had
been ongoing. According to reports, the warplanes bombarded the
countryside around Jisr al-Shughour on the western edge of Idlib,
killing 13 civilians but no fighters.
Syria was losing the war in 2016, but Russia saved al-Assad by
actively joining the fight. Russia's military had been completely
shut out of the Mideast after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the
1990s. But now, for the first time in decades, Russia has two
military bases in the Mideast -- the Tartus naval base, and the
Hmeimim airbase, both of them in Syria, in return for supporting
al-Assad.
In the last month, Russia has launched a large naval deployment in the
Mediterranean Sea, off the coast of Syria. The naval force has more
than a dozen vessels including destroyers, frigates and submarines,
some armed with Kalibr cruise missiles. It's expected that the naval
force will participate in the assault on Idlib, and remain at the
Tartus naval port indefinitely.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday:
<QUOTE>"It goes without saying that this problem (terrorists
in Idlib) must be straightened out. We do know that the Syrian
armed forces are getting ready for tackling this
problem."<END QUOTE>
Iran's forces have also supported al-Assad in the war. Iran's foreign
minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Monday that all the "terrorists"
in Idlib must be "cleaned out":
<QUOTE>"All of Syrian territory must be preserved and all the
sects and groups should start the round of reconstruction as one
collective and the displaced should return to their families.
And the remaining terrorists in the remaining parts of Idlib must
be cleaned out and the region should be placed back under the
control of the Syrian people."<END QUOTE>
Al-Assad has made it clear that he considers the entire population of
Idlib to be "terrorists." Moscow Times and Tass (Moscow) and National Interest and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
****
**** Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib
****
With Syrian army forces massing on the border with Syria, a full-scale
assault is expected to start at any time.
There are 3.5 million people in Idlib. About half of them arrived
there after fleeing from the violence in earlier battles in Aleppo,
Ghouta and Daraa. There are probably around several tens of thousands
of "rebels," including some belonging to al-Qaeda based Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham (HTS), and others belonging to ISIS.
In Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa, al-Assad has been using Vladimir Putin's
"Grozny strategy," where warplanes attack hospitals, schools and
markets with the objective of creating millions of refugees, who can
then be attacked while they're out in the open. A refinement
developed by al-Assad's forces is to drop barrel bombs filled with
metals, explosives, and chlorine gas. The metals would kill as many
people as possible, and the chlorine gas, which is heavier than air,
would fall into basements and bunkers where women and children were
hiding. Once they were forced out into the open, additional barrel
bombs and missiles or Sarin gas could kill the women and children
en masse.
In the case of earlier targets, international pressure caused Russia
and Syria to agree to allow many people to flee the violence, and take
refuge in Idlib. But there is no Idlib for Idlib, which means that
there is no place in Idlib for people to go to flee. So there are 3.5
million people, including about one million children, all trapped in
Idlib.
Russia and Syria claim that they're only going to be targeting
"terrorists" in Idlib, but al-Assad considers everyone in Idlib to be
a terroris, and so many people are expecting a massive bloodbath.
Possibly over a million people will try to cross the border into
Turkey, a country that already hosts about three million refugees from
Syria. That may result in a new surge of refugees into Europe.
A big unknown is what role Turkey's military will play.
Idlib is supposed to be one of the four de-escalation ceasefire zones,
set up by agreement of Russia, Turkey and Iran in meetings in Astana,
Kazakhstan last year. However, the de-escalation process turned out
to be a hoax, to provide cover for al-Assad's attacks.
Turkey is the one of the de-escalation zones that Turkey is
responsible for. Turkey has a string of observation posts around
Idlib, and has been fortifying them with tanks and personnel in recent
days. It's not known whether Turkey would take any military action to
block Syria's ground forces.
The United State has warned Syria that there will be a military
reprisal if al-Assad uses chemical weapons in Idlib. According to
reports, US intelligence and military targeting experts have created a
list of Syrian chemical weapons facilities that could be struck if
Trump decided to order a new round of airstrikes in the country.
BBC
and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and CNN and Jerusalem Post
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Dmitry Peskov, Mohammad Javad Zarif,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Grozny strategy,
Turkey, Idlib province, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Iran, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Grozny strategy,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
chlorine gas, Sarin gas
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Syria and Russian forces prepare to 'clean out' the 'terrorists' in Idlib
- Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib
****
**** Syria and Russian forces prepare to 'clean out' the 'terrorists' in Idlib
****
Syrian firefighters try putting out a fire in a building that was hit by Russian air strikes in Idlib, on Tuesday (AFP)
Ever since Syria's army took control of Daraa in southern Syria,
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and Russia's president Vladimir
Putin have been declaring the war almost over and won. ( "22-Jul-18 World View -- Bashar al-Assad declares victory in southern Syria as opponents are bused out"
)
There's just one more quick battle to be fought, they've been
suggesting, the battle to take control of Idlib province.
Airstrikes by Russian warplanes struck targets in Idlib on Tuesday,
after a lull of several weeks, although Syrian warplane airstrikes had
been ongoing. According to reports, the warplanes bombarded the
countryside around Jisr al-Shughour on the western edge of Idlib,
killing 13 civilians but no fighters.
Syria was losing the war in 2016, but Russia saved al-Assad by
actively joining the fight. Russia's military had been completely
shut out of the Mideast after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the
1990s. But now, for the first time in decades, Russia has two
military bases in the Mideast -- the Tartus naval base, and the
Hmeimim airbase, both of them in Syria, in return for supporting
al-Assad.
In the last month, Russia has launched a large naval deployment in the
Mediterranean Sea, off the coast of Syria. The naval force has more
than a dozen vessels including destroyers, frigates and submarines,
some armed with Kalibr cruise missiles. It's expected that the naval
force will participate in the assault on Idlib, and remain at the
Tartus naval port indefinitely.
Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday:
<QUOTE>"It goes without saying that this problem (terrorists
in Idlib) must be straightened out. We do know that the Syrian
armed forces are getting ready for tackling this
problem."<END QUOTE>
Iran's forces have also supported al-Assad in the war. Iran's foreign
minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Monday that all the "terrorists"
in Idlib must be "cleaned out":
<QUOTE>"All of Syrian territory must be preserved and all the
sects and groups should start the round of reconstruction as one
collective and the displaced should return to their families.
And the remaining terrorists in the remaining parts of Idlib must
be cleaned out and the region should be placed back under the
control of the Syrian people."<END QUOTE>
Al-Assad has made it clear that he considers the entire population of
Idlib to be "terrorists." Moscow Times and Tass (Moscow) and National Interest and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
****
**** Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib
****
With Syrian army forces massing on the border with Syria, a full-scale
assault is expected to start at any time.
There are 3.5 million people in Idlib. About half of them arrived
there after fleeing from the violence in earlier battles in Aleppo,
Ghouta and Daraa. There are probably around several tens of thousands
of "rebels," including some belonging to al-Qaeda based Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham (HTS), and others belonging to ISIS.
In Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa, al-Assad has been using Vladimir Putin's
"Grozny strategy," where warplanes attack hospitals, schools and
markets with the objective of creating millions of refugees, who can
then be attacked while they're out in the open. A refinement
developed by al-Assad's forces is to drop barrel bombs filled with
metals, explosives, and chlorine gas. The metals would kill as many
people as possible, and the chlorine gas, which is heavier than air,
would fall into basements and bunkers where women and children were
hiding. Once they were forced out into the open, additional barrel
bombs and missiles or Sarin gas could kill the women and children
en masse.
In the case of earlier targets, international pressure caused Russia
and Syria to agree to allow many people to flee the violence, and take
refuge in Idlib. But there is no Idlib for Idlib, which means that
there is no place in Idlib for people to go to flee. So there are 3.5
million people, including about one million children, all trapped in
Idlib.
Russia and Syria claim that they're only going to be targeting
"terrorists" in Idlib, but al-Assad considers everyone in Idlib to be
a terroris, and so many people are expecting a massive bloodbath.
Possibly over a million people will try to cross the border into
Turkey, a country that already hosts about three million refugees from
Syria. That may result in a new surge of refugees into Europe.
A big unknown is what role Turkey's military will play.
Idlib is supposed to be one of the four de-escalation ceasefire zones,
set up by agreement of Russia, Turkey and Iran in meetings in Astana,
Kazakhstan last year. However, the de-escalation process turned out
to be a hoax, to provide cover for al-Assad's attacks.
Turkey is the one of the de-escalation zones that Turkey is
responsible for. Turkey has a string of observation posts around
Idlib, and has been fortifying them with tanks and personnel in recent
days. It's not known whether Turkey would take any military action to
block Syria's ground forces.
The United State has warned Syria that there will be a military
reprisal if al-Assad uses chemical weapons in Idlib. According to
reports, US intelligence and military targeting experts have created a
list of Syrian chemical weapons facilities that could be struck if
Trump decided to order a new round of airstrikes in the country.
BBC
and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and CNN and Jerusalem Post
Related Articles
- Bashar al-Assad declares victory in southern Syria as opponents are bused out (22-Jul-2018)
- US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
- Syria, Russia, Iran conduct full-on mass extermination of civilians in Eastern Ghouta (23-Feb-2018)
- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria (22-Jan-2014)
- Russia demands that US and EU pay to rebuild Syria (23-Aug-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Dmitry Peskov, Mohammad Javad Zarif,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Grozny strategy,
Turkey, Idlib province, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Iran, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Grozny strategy,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
chlorine gas, Sarin gas
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
