09-17-2018, 10:44 PM
*** 18-Sep-18 World View -- Turkey scores diplomatic victory, as Russia backs down from Idlib assault in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey scores diplomatic victory, as Russia backs down from Idlib assault in Syria
****
![[Image: g180917b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180917b.jpg)
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin applaud themselves for having reached an agreement on Idlib on Monday in Sochi (RT)
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russia's president
Vladimir Putin held a summit meeting on Monday at Russia's Sochi Black
Sea resort. After the meeting, the two leaders held a press
conference and announced that there would be no attack on Idlib
province in Syria, at least for the time being.
This would have to be viewed as a diplomatic victory for Erdogan,
after a recent summit meeting in Tehran on September 7 with Russia and
Iran where Turkey's attempt to avert the Idlib operation was rejected
by the other two parties. ( "8-Sep-18 World View -- Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria"
)
Turkey has been desperate to stop the Syria-Russia offensive, because
it would be a humanitarian disaster in Idlib, and because it would be
a humanitarian disaster for Turkey. Turkey already hosts 3.5 million
Syrian refugees, and there are potentially 3 million more in Idlib who
would try to flee across the the border into Turkey, and possibly
further on into Europe.
It's believed that Russia backed down from an immediate assault on
Idlib because of international pressure. After the Tehran meeting
two weeks ago, Erdogan said:
<QUOTE>"If the world turns a blind eye to the killing of tens
of thousands of innocent people to further the regime's interests,
we will neither watch from the sidelines nor participate in such a
game."<END QUOTE>
Since then, Turkey has been supplying additional weapons to "moderate"
rebels in Idlib, to prepare them for the assault. Separately, the US
and other Nato countries have repeatedly warned Russia and Syria.
President Donald Trump said that the assault would be a "grave
humanitarian error," while Nikki Haley said that it would provoke
"dire consequences."
And Russia's decision may have been swayed by the prospect of the
enormity of the humanitarian disaster, when al-Assad starts
perpetrating Putin's own "Grozny Strategy," exterminating women and
children in Idlib with attacks on hospitals, markets and schools, with
barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals and chlorine gas, and with
Sarin gas, causing massive slaughter and massive crowds of fleeing
refugees.
There's one more reason why Putin might be reluctant to go ahead with
the mass slaughter in Idlib. Putin has said at least 9,000 people
from the republics of the former Soviet Union have gone to Syria to
fight for al-Qaeda or ISIS or other extremist groups. It's possible
that many of them are still in Idlib, and the Syrian-Russian assault
would allow them to join refugees pouring into Turkey, and from there
continue on to return home to their native countries to continue the
jihad there. Russia Today and AP and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
****
**** The delusional terms of the Turkey-Russian Idlib agreement
****
The agreement between Erdogan and Putin is a big relief to
a lot of people, especially the people in Idlib, because
it buys time. But it buys little more than that, because
the terms are delusional.
According to the agreement, Russia and Turkey will set up a 10-15 km
wide demilitarized buffer zone in Idlib province, to be policed by
Russia and Turkey.
All the anti-Assad "rebels" in this buffer zone are required to lay
down their arms, leave behind heavy artillery, and depart for other
enclaves. These include both "moderate" rebels, and also those in
al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly the al-Nusra
Front.
It will be Turkey's responsibility to separate the 60,000 or
so rebels from the other three million civilians in Idlib.
It would be nearly impossible anyway, but these are people
who will not want to be found, and are willing to die rather
than surrender.
But main objection to this temporary peace agreement is the
same as all the others in Putin's "Astana process." You have
a ceasefire agreement between Turkey, Russia and Iran. These
are supposed to be Syrian peace agreements, but there are never
Syrians involved in the agreement -- either al-Assad or
the opposition.
The whole Astana process has been nothing more than a farcical
cover for al-Assad's genocidal actions. The Astana process
identified four "de-escalation zones," or "ceasefire zones,"
but Russia never had any intention of meeting his own commitments.
The ceasefire zones were set up so that there would be a ceasefire
until al-Assad was ready for his extermination assaults, as
we've seen in Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa.
The last de-escalation zone is Idlib, and it's different from the
others in that Turkey has been responsible for enforcing the
ceasefire. Al-Assad and Russia could attack at will in the other
de-escalation zones, because there was nobody opposed. But in Idlib
Turkey is opposed, and wants to enforce the ceasefire.
Russia and al-Assad never had any intention that Idlib would
remain a ceasefire zone, but now they've been forced by
international pressure to wait a while before going in for
the kill. And when they do, whether they will have to face
Turkey's military is an unknown.
Perhaps the biggest delusion of all, shared by many politicians
and journalists, is that the Syrian war is almost over.
Al-Assad said that the war would end after Aleppo was
assaulted. Then he said that the war was over after Daraa
was assaulted.
As I've written many times, al-Assad is a psychopathic monster, the
worst genocidal war criminal so far this century, comparable to Josef
Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong and Pol Pot from the last century.
For al-Assad, the extermination of the women and children in Idlib
would be the climax of his life, proving that he was better than his
father Hafez al-Assad was at committing mass slaughter and atrocities.
Thanks to Monday's agreement between Russia and Turkey, al-Assad is
going to have to wait a little longer to prove how much more of a man
he is than his father. BBC and
Al Jazeera and Asia Times and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Grozny strategy,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran, Hassan Rouhani,
Turkey, Idlib province, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Iran, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, Saydnaya prison,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, chlorine gas, Sarin gas
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey scores diplomatic victory, as Russia backs down from Idlib assault in Syria
- The delusional terms of the Turkey-Russian Idlib agreement
****
**** Turkey scores diplomatic victory, as Russia backs down from Idlib assault in Syria
****
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin applaud themselves for having reached an agreement on Idlib on Monday in Sochi (RT)
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russia's president
Vladimir Putin held a summit meeting on Monday at Russia's Sochi Black
Sea resort. After the meeting, the two leaders held a press
conference and announced that there would be no attack on Idlib
province in Syria, at least for the time being.
This would have to be viewed as a diplomatic victory for Erdogan,
after a recent summit meeting in Tehran on September 7 with Russia and
Iran where Turkey's attempt to avert the Idlib operation was rejected
by the other two parties. ( "8-Sep-18 World View -- Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria"
)
Turkey has been desperate to stop the Syria-Russia offensive, because
it would be a humanitarian disaster in Idlib, and because it would be
a humanitarian disaster for Turkey. Turkey already hosts 3.5 million
Syrian refugees, and there are potentially 3 million more in Idlib who
would try to flee across the the border into Turkey, and possibly
further on into Europe.
It's believed that Russia backed down from an immediate assault on
Idlib because of international pressure. After the Tehran meeting
two weeks ago, Erdogan said:
<QUOTE>"If the world turns a blind eye to the killing of tens
of thousands of innocent people to further the regime's interests,
we will neither watch from the sidelines nor participate in such a
game."<END QUOTE>
Since then, Turkey has been supplying additional weapons to "moderate"
rebels in Idlib, to prepare them for the assault. Separately, the US
and other Nato countries have repeatedly warned Russia and Syria.
President Donald Trump said that the assault would be a "grave
humanitarian error," while Nikki Haley said that it would provoke
"dire consequences."
And Russia's decision may have been swayed by the prospect of the
enormity of the humanitarian disaster, when al-Assad starts
perpetrating Putin's own "Grozny Strategy," exterminating women and
children in Idlib with attacks on hospitals, markets and schools, with
barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals and chlorine gas, and with
Sarin gas, causing massive slaughter and massive crowds of fleeing
refugees.
There's one more reason why Putin might be reluctant to go ahead with
the mass slaughter in Idlib. Putin has said at least 9,000 people
from the republics of the former Soviet Union have gone to Syria to
fight for al-Qaeda or ISIS or other extremist groups. It's possible
that many of them are still in Idlib, and the Syrian-Russian assault
would allow them to join refugees pouring into Turkey, and from there
continue on to return home to their native countries to continue the
jihad there. Russia Today and AP and Daily Sabah (Ankara)
****
**** The delusional terms of the Turkey-Russian Idlib agreement
****
The agreement between Erdogan and Putin is a big relief to
a lot of people, especially the people in Idlib, because
it buys time. But it buys little more than that, because
the terms are delusional.
According to the agreement, Russia and Turkey will set up a 10-15 km
wide demilitarized buffer zone in Idlib province, to be policed by
Russia and Turkey.
All the anti-Assad "rebels" in this buffer zone are required to lay
down their arms, leave behind heavy artillery, and depart for other
enclaves. These include both "moderate" rebels, and also those in
al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly the al-Nusra
Front.
It will be Turkey's responsibility to separate the 60,000 or
so rebels from the other three million civilians in Idlib.
It would be nearly impossible anyway, but these are people
who will not want to be found, and are willing to die rather
than surrender.
But main objection to this temporary peace agreement is the
same as all the others in Putin's "Astana process." You have
a ceasefire agreement between Turkey, Russia and Iran. These
are supposed to be Syrian peace agreements, but there are never
Syrians involved in the agreement -- either al-Assad or
the opposition.
The whole Astana process has been nothing more than a farcical
cover for al-Assad's genocidal actions. The Astana process
identified four "de-escalation zones," or "ceasefire zones,"
but Russia never had any intention of meeting his own commitments.
The ceasefire zones were set up so that there would be a ceasefire
until al-Assad was ready for his extermination assaults, as
we've seen in Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa.
The last de-escalation zone is Idlib, and it's different from the
others in that Turkey has been responsible for enforcing the
ceasefire. Al-Assad and Russia could attack at will in the other
de-escalation zones, because there was nobody opposed. But in Idlib
Turkey is opposed, and wants to enforce the ceasefire.
Russia and al-Assad never had any intention that Idlib would
remain a ceasefire zone, but now they've been forced by
international pressure to wait a while before going in for
the kill. And when they do, whether they will have to face
Turkey's military is an unknown.
Perhaps the biggest delusion of all, shared by many politicians
and journalists, is that the Syrian war is almost over.
Al-Assad said that the war would end after Aleppo was
assaulted. Then he said that the war was over after Daraa
was assaulted.
As I've written many times, al-Assad is a psychopathic monster, the
worst genocidal war criminal so far this century, comparable to Josef
Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong and Pol Pot from the last century.
For al-Assad, the extermination of the women and children in Idlib
would be the climax of his life, proving that he was better than his
father Hafez al-Assad was at committing mass slaughter and atrocities.
Thanks to Monday's agreement between Russia and Turkey, al-Assad is
going to have to wait a little longer to prove how much more of a man
he is than his father. BBC and
Al Jazeera and Asia Times and Hurriyet (Ankara)
Related Articles:
- Turkey, desperate to stop Syrian Idlib offensive, is supplying weapons to rebels (14-Sep-2018)
- Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria (08-Sep-2018)
- Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib (05-Sep-2018)
- Russia demands that US and EU pay to rebuild Syria (23-Aug-2018)
- US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria (22-Jan-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Grozny strategy,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran, Hassan Rouhani,
Turkey, Idlib province, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Iran, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, Saydnaya prison,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, chlorine gas, Sarin gas
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
