05-13-2016, 09:47 PM
*** 14-May-16 World View -- Syria's Aleppo campaign falters after disastrous Iranian loss at Khan Tuman
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Hezbollah suffers blow in death of top commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine
****
![[Image: g160513b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160513b.jpg)
A neighborhood of Aleppo Syria, after being targeted by Syrian regime airstrikes (AFP)
Thousands of people on Friday attended the funeral in Beirut, Lebanon,
of Hezbollah's top military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine, who
was leading Hezbollah's forces in the war in Syria. The death of
Badreddine is a huge embarrassment to the terrorist group Hezbollah
and to Hezbollah's puppetmasters in Iran. Iranian officials
immediately claimed that Badreddine was killed by a "huge blast" in
Damascus, the capital city of Syria, and that the blast was caused by
an Israeli air strike. However, Iran quickly backed down from that
claim, since after all that claim would be even more embarrassing to
Hezbollah and Iran than the truth.
The truth is that Badreddine was killed a week ago while leading
Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Khan Tuman in Iran's disastrous battle
of Aleppo. It's believed that he was killed in battle, although there
are unconfirmed conspiracy claims that either the Syrian regime or
Israel had something to do with his death.
Hezbollah praised the "Martyr Badreddine": In 1982, he formed jihadist
groups to confront the Zionist entity. After becoming commander in
1992, he prepared many heroic operations against the Israeli
occupation. With the inception of Syrian crisis in 2011, the martyr
was one of the first commanders who confronted the takfiri plot across
Syria, according to Hezbollah.
Badreddine's death brings to an end a long manhunt by Israeli and
Western intelligence services for the guerrilla leader who has managed
to remain in the shadows while taking part in assassinations and
military operations. Independent (London) and AEI Iran Tracker (13-May) and Al Manar (Hezbollah)
****
**** Iran suffers disastrous losses in battle of Khan Tuman
****
All last year, until Russia actively entered the war in Syria, we were
reporting that Syria's army was losing one city after another to the
opponents of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. ( "5-Jun-2015 World View -- With Syria's army nearing collapse, Iran plans massive troop deployment"
)
A major objective of Russia's entry into the war was the recapture of
Aleppo from opposition forces. For the past few months, there
have been massive forces -- combining forces from Syria's regime army,
Hezbollah, and Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) --
focused on the recapture of Aleppo. ( "19-Feb-16 World View -- Russia's attacks on civilian hospitals in Aleppo follow the 'Grozny model'"
)
On May 6, IRGC forces were caught by surprise by an attack on Khan
Tuman, south of Aleppo, by anti-Assad forces, killing and capturing
about two dozen IRGC fighters, at a time when there was supposed to be
a cease-fire in progress. This is the same battle in which
Hezbollah's top military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine was
killed.
Former commander of the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, retired general Mohsen
Rezaei, was brought out of retirement, possibly to provide guidance to
the IRGC forces in Aleppo. He said:
[indent]<QUOTE>"Some months ago Khan Tuman in south Aleppo was freed,
but a few days ago, takfiris, taking advantage of a cease-fire at
a time neither a plane nor artillery was active, surprise attacked
Syrian forces and Iranian advisers.
[Expressing anger and dismay over the IRGC losses:] Their
martyrdom shall not remain unavenged. We will liberate Aleppo
soon and wipe out the takfiri terrorists."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
IRGC major-general Qassem Soleimani was also dispatched to the region
to provide moral support.
The loss of several dozen IRGC fighters is not a significant loss
militarily, but it has big symbolic significance. It's the first
major setback for the IRGC forces in Aleppo. Other IRGC forces have
suffered losses in other places in Syria, though not at this level.
The strategic logic of Iran’s mission in Syria will likely drive the
IRGC toward greater escalation in response to this setback. The Guard
will want to avenge this defeat, moreover, and re-establish its
credibility in the fight around Aleppo, which remains a strategically
important prize for the Assad regime. Al-Monitor and Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and AEI Iran Tracker (12-May)
****
**** Offensive to recapture Aleppo may be near collapse
****
I like to reference Debka's newsletter because it contains valuable
insights into what's going on, but it's written from Israel's point of
view, and sometimes gets things wrong. This week's subscriber-only
newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) contains an analysis of the
battle to recapture Aleppo, and says that it's being stymied because
of conflicting objectives among the three armies -- Russia, Iran and
Syria.
After the loss of Khan Tuman and the deaths of IRGC fighters, Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad demanded that Iran send more forces to
Aleppo to defeat the rebels. Iran refused the request, and just sent
IRGC major-general Qassem Soleimani to raise the morale of Iranian and
Hezbollah forces, as previously described above.
According to Debka, al-Assad does not want to deploy his own army
forces to Aleppo, because he wants to keep them close by in Damascus
and Latakia to defend his own regime, even if it means losing Aleppo.
This has inevitably infuriated both Iran and Russia, whose troops
wonder why they're fighting someone else's battle. Russia in
particular has no use for al-Assad and would except as a way of
keeping control of Syria.
Russia's forces entered the Syrian war actively last year to save
al-Assad from losing the war. It may be that al-Assad will lose the
war anyway. Debka
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC,
Mustafa Amine Badreddine, Syria, Aleppo, Khan Tuman, Hezbollah,
Russia, Mohsen Rezaei, Qassem Soleimani
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hezbollah suffers blow in death of top commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine
- Iran suffers disastrous losses in battle of Khan Tuman
- Offensive to recapture Aleppo may be near collapse
****
**** Hezbollah suffers blow in death of top commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine
****
A neighborhood of Aleppo Syria, after being targeted by Syrian regime airstrikes (AFP)
Thousands of people on Friday attended the funeral in Beirut, Lebanon,
of Hezbollah's top military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine, who
was leading Hezbollah's forces in the war in Syria. The death of
Badreddine is a huge embarrassment to the terrorist group Hezbollah
and to Hezbollah's puppetmasters in Iran. Iranian officials
immediately claimed that Badreddine was killed by a "huge blast" in
Damascus, the capital city of Syria, and that the blast was caused by
an Israeli air strike. However, Iran quickly backed down from that
claim, since after all that claim would be even more embarrassing to
Hezbollah and Iran than the truth.
The truth is that Badreddine was killed a week ago while leading
Hezbollah and Iranian forces in Khan Tuman in Iran's disastrous battle
of Aleppo. It's believed that he was killed in battle, although there
are unconfirmed conspiracy claims that either the Syrian regime or
Israel had something to do with his death.
Hezbollah praised the "Martyr Badreddine": In 1982, he formed jihadist
groups to confront the Zionist entity. After becoming commander in
1992, he prepared many heroic operations against the Israeli
occupation. With the inception of Syrian crisis in 2011, the martyr
was one of the first commanders who confronted the takfiri plot across
Syria, according to Hezbollah.
Badreddine's death brings to an end a long manhunt by Israeli and
Western intelligence services for the guerrilla leader who has managed
to remain in the shadows while taking part in assassinations and
military operations. Independent (London) and AEI Iran Tracker (13-May) and Al Manar (Hezbollah)
****
**** Iran suffers disastrous losses in battle of Khan Tuman
****
All last year, until Russia actively entered the war in Syria, we were
reporting that Syria's army was losing one city after another to the
opponents of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. ( "5-Jun-2015 World View -- With Syria's army nearing collapse, Iran plans massive troop deployment"
)
A major objective of Russia's entry into the war was the recapture of
Aleppo from opposition forces. For the past few months, there
have been massive forces -- combining forces from Syria's regime army,
Hezbollah, and Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) --
focused on the recapture of Aleppo. ( "19-Feb-16 World View -- Russia's attacks on civilian hospitals in Aleppo follow the 'Grozny model'"
)
On May 6, IRGC forces were caught by surprise by an attack on Khan
Tuman, south of Aleppo, by anti-Assad forces, killing and capturing
about two dozen IRGC fighters, at a time when there was supposed to be
a cease-fire in progress. This is the same battle in which
Hezbollah's top military commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine was
killed.
Former commander of the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, retired general Mohsen
Rezaei, was brought out of retirement, possibly to provide guidance to
the IRGC forces in Aleppo. He said:
[indent]<QUOTE>"Some months ago Khan Tuman in south Aleppo was freed,
but a few days ago, takfiris, taking advantage of a cease-fire at
a time neither a plane nor artillery was active, surprise attacked
Syrian forces and Iranian advisers.
[Expressing anger and dismay over the IRGC losses:] Their
martyrdom shall not remain unavenged. We will liberate Aleppo
soon and wipe out the takfiri terrorists."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
IRGC major-general Qassem Soleimani was also dispatched to the region
to provide moral support.
The loss of several dozen IRGC fighters is not a significant loss
militarily, but it has big symbolic significance. It's the first
major setback for the IRGC forces in Aleppo. Other IRGC forces have
suffered losses in other places in Syria, though not at this level.
The strategic logic of Iran’s mission in Syria will likely drive the
IRGC toward greater escalation in response to this setback. The Guard
will want to avenge this defeat, moreover, and re-establish its
credibility in the fight around Aleppo, which remains a strategically
important prize for the Assad regime. Al-Monitor and Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and AEI Iran Tracker (12-May)
****
**** Offensive to recapture Aleppo may be near collapse
****
I like to reference Debka's newsletter because it contains valuable
insights into what's going on, but it's written from Israel's point of
view, and sometimes gets things wrong. This week's subscriber-only
newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) contains an analysis of the
battle to recapture Aleppo, and says that it's being stymied because
of conflicting objectives among the three armies -- Russia, Iran and
Syria.
After the loss of Khan Tuman and the deaths of IRGC fighters, Syria's
president Bashar al-Assad demanded that Iran send more forces to
Aleppo to defeat the rebels. Iran refused the request, and just sent
IRGC major-general Qassem Soleimani to raise the morale of Iranian and
Hezbollah forces, as previously described above.
According to Debka, al-Assad does not want to deploy his own army
forces to Aleppo, because he wants to keep them close by in Damascus
and Latakia to defend his own regime, even if it means losing Aleppo.
This has inevitably infuriated both Iran and Russia, whose troops
wonder why they're fighting someone else's battle. Russia in
particular has no use for al-Assad and would except as a way of
keeping control of Syria.
Russia's forces entered the Syrian war actively last year to save
al-Assad from losing the war. It may be that al-Assad will lose the
war anyway. Debka
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, IRGC,
Mustafa Amine Badreddine, Syria, Aleppo, Khan Tuman, Hezbollah,
Russia, Mohsen Rezaei, Qassem Soleimani
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
