10-27-2018, 09:41 PM
*** 28-Oct-18 World View -- Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Remembering previous Syria 'peace conferences' and 'peace plans'
****
![[Image: g181027b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181027b.jpg)
Leaders holding hands: Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Emmanuel Macron (Reuters)
How many "peace conferences" and "peace plans" have there been since
2011, when Syria's president Bashar al-Assad launched his genocidal
war against his historic Sunni enemies, including the Palestinians in
refugee camps, targeting women and children in marketplaces, schools
and hospitals using barrel bombs, missiles, chlorine gas, and Sarin
gas, exterminating them as if they were termites?
The first ones began in 2012 with the UN Security Council appointing a
series of UN envoys to Syria. The first was former U.N.
secretary-general Kofi Annan who came up with a six-point peace plan
that I described as "farcical" on the day it was announce. ( "22-Mar-12 World View -- U.N. Security Council adopts farcical 'peace plan' for Syria"
)
The first of the six points says that Syria commits to work with Kofi
Annan “in an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address the
legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people.” That's
just an example of how silly it was, as if it had been written by
third graders.
Al-Assad actually agreed to the plan, and then ignored it. He made a
complete fool of Annan. The so-called "peace plan" actually made
things worse in Syria, because it provided cover for al-Assad to
continue his slaughter, while claiming to be negotiating peace.
Similar things happened with all three UN envoys -- Kofi Annan,
Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura. They were all useful idiots,
played by al-Assad as complete fools, humiliating themselves and the
United Nations. As I wrote in "3-Aug-12 World View -- Kofi Annan resigns in failure as Syria envoy"
, Annan was bitter and angry when he resigned, blaming
his decision on what he described as Syrian government intransigence,
on increasing militancy by Syrian rebels and on finger-pointing and
name-calling by members of the United Nations Security Council.
By the way, two weeks ago Staffan de Mistura announced that he would
step down. He blamed Bashar al-Assad for blocking the peace process.
Totally laughable.
It was during the tenure of the envoy Lakhdar Brahimi that I learned
what the term "proximity talks" means. The way this works is that the
two sides don't actually talk to each other -- if they did, they'd
probably end up killing each other. Instead, the two sides remain
separated in different rooms, and each side only talks to Brahimi, who
goes back and forth between the rooms. That's how the farcical "peace
talks" worked.
Then there were the completely fraudulent so-called "Astana talks,"
which were led by Russia and took place in Astana, Kazakhstan, or
sometimes in Sochi.
The Astana talks split western Syria into four "de-escalation zones"
or "ceasefire zones." Russia promised there would be no fighting in
any of these zones. In the case of three of them, al-Assad and Russia
violated the agreement, and turned each of them into a full-scale
genocide zone.
There's only one de-escalation zone remaining: Idlib
Guardian (London) and Reuters (17-Oct)
****
**** Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib
****
On Saturday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan led peace talks
in Istanbul, Turkey, with leaders of Russia, France and Germany. In
addition to Erdogan, Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's President Emmanuel Macron were
president.
The peace conference was considered a diplomatic victory for Erdogan,
because he believes that he can get more leverage against Russia and
Syria if the Europeans support him.
Syria was not present, because Bashar al-Assad is never present at
these peace conferences, since he always ignores them anyway.
The U.S. was not present at the peace conference. According to one
analyst, the Europeans are furious at Donald Trump for pulling out of
the Iran nuclear deal and for the tariff policy, and didn't want the
peace conference to turn into a pure Trump-bashing conference, so they
didn't invite the US.
The purpose was to make the ceasefire in Idlib permanent. There are
over three million people in Idlib, and half of them are displaced
people who fled al-Assad's violence in the other three de-escalation
zones. Of the three million civilians, there are an estimated 60,000
or so anti-Assad rebels in Idlib, including both "moderate" rebels and
jihadists in al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly the
al-Nusra Front.
Bashar al-Assad has made it clear that he plans an assault on Idlib,
and is willing to kill three million people to do so, since he
considers them all the be "terrorists." If there is an assault on
Idlib, there will be a massive humanitarian disaster, and hundreds of
thousands or millions of people will pour across the border into
Turkey, which is already hosting 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Some of
the Idlib refugees will undoubtedly continue on into Europe, resulting
in a new European migrant crisis.
That's why Merkel and Macron are at the meeting, calling for a
political solution that makes the Idlib ceasefire permanent. And
that's why the meeting is considered a diplomatic victory for Erdogan,
since he thinks that Merkel and Macron will pressure Putin into
agreeing to a permanent ceasefire.
On September 17, Erdogan and Putin met in Sochi, and they reached an
agreement to stabilize Idlib. A buffer zone would be set up, with the
Syrian army on one side, and the rest of Idlib on the other. Turkey
would guarantee that all rebel weapons would be removed from the
buffer zone, and that Turkey would patrol the buffer zone and
guarantee that it is weapons-free.
Since then, there are been sporadic violations of the buffer zone on
both sides, but Turkey claims that it has succeeded in clearing the
buffer zone. So the purpose of Saturday's peace conference was to
agree to make the ceasefire permanent.
No such agreement was reached, of course. A secondary objective, to
form a constitutional committee for Syria, was rejected by al-Assad.
In fact, the meeting was a failure except for a few laughable
expressions of hope and change.
At the press conference after the meeting, Macron said, "We should be
vigilant that the ceasefire in Syria will be long lasting." Merkel
said, "A political solution is necessary besides military
solutions. We will not tolerate the use of chemical weapons in Syria."
Haha.
We've seen this movie several times before. Al-Assad and Putin commit
to some kind of ceasefire, with absolutely no intention to keep the
commitment, and use the negotiations as cover to launch a new
genocidal offensive. Sooner or later, something will happen that
al-Assad can use as an excuse, and the assault will begin.
This time it will be different, however. In Aleppo, Ghouta and Daara,
there were a few hundred thousand people, and many of them were
permitted to escape to Idlib.
In Idlib, there are over three million people, and they have no place
to escape to. As I wrote at length earlier this month,
this situation has all the makings of a
traditional tragedy in the classical Greek sense. There are three
major protagonists, al-Assad, Putin and Erdogan, and they're headed
for a massive, tragic, calamitous ending that cannot be prevented by
them or anybody else. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Deutsche Welle
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, France, Emmanuel Macron,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Kofi Annan, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura, Idlib,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, chlorine gas, Sarin gas,
Aleppo, Ghouta, Daara
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Remembering previous Syria 'peace conferences' and 'peace plans'
- Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib
****
**** Remembering previous Syria 'peace conferences' and 'peace plans'
****
Leaders holding hands: Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Emmanuel Macron (Reuters)
How many "peace conferences" and "peace plans" have there been since
2011, when Syria's president Bashar al-Assad launched his genocidal
war against his historic Sunni enemies, including the Palestinians in
refugee camps, targeting women and children in marketplaces, schools
and hospitals using barrel bombs, missiles, chlorine gas, and Sarin
gas, exterminating them as if they were termites?
The first ones began in 2012 with the UN Security Council appointing a
series of UN envoys to Syria. The first was former U.N.
secretary-general Kofi Annan who came up with a six-point peace plan
that I described as "farcical" on the day it was announce. ( "22-Mar-12 World View -- U.N. Security Council adopts farcical 'peace plan' for Syria"
)
The first of the six points says that Syria commits to work with Kofi
Annan “in an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address the
legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people.” That's
just an example of how silly it was, as if it had been written by
third graders.
Al-Assad actually agreed to the plan, and then ignored it. He made a
complete fool of Annan. The so-called "peace plan" actually made
things worse in Syria, because it provided cover for al-Assad to
continue his slaughter, while claiming to be negotiating peace.
Similar things happened with all three UN envoys -- Kofi Annan,
Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura. They were all useful idiots,
played by al-Assad as complete fools, humiliating themselves and the
United Nations. As I wrote in "3-Aug-12 World View -- Kofi Annan resigns in failure as Syria envoy"
, Annan was bitter and angry when he resigned, blaming
his decision on what he described as Syrian government intransigence,
on increasing militancy by Syrian rebels and on finger-pointing and
name-calling by members of the United Nations Security Council.
By the way, two weeks ago Staffan de Mistura announced that he would
step down. He blamed Bashar al-Assad for blocking the peace process.
Totally laughable.
It was during the tenure of the envoy Lakhdar Brahimi that I learned
what the term "proximity talks" means. The way this works is that the
two sides don't actually talk to each other -- if they did, they'd
probably end up killing each other. Instead, the two sides remain
separated in different rooms, and each side only talks to Brahimi, who
goes back and forth between the rooms. That's how the farcical "peace
talks" worked.
Then there were the completely fraudulent so-called "Astana talks,"
which were led by Russia and took place in Astana, Kazakhstan, or
sometimes in Sochi.
The Astana talks split western Syria into four "de-escalation zones"
or "ceasefire zones." Russia promised there would be no fighting in
any of these zones. In the case of three of them, al-Assad and Russia
violated the agreement, and turned each of them into a full-scale
genocide zone.
There's only one de-escalation zone remaining: Idlib
Guardian (London) and Reuters (17-Oct)
****
**** Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib
****
On Saturday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan led peace talks
in Istanbul, Turkey, with leaders of Russia, France and Germany. In
addition to Erdogan, Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's President Emmanuel Macron were
president.
The peace conference was considered a diplomatic victory for Erdogan,
because he believes that he can get more leverage against Russia and
Syria if the Europeans support him.
Syria was not present, because Bashar al-Assad is never present at
these peace conferences, since he always ignores them anyway.
The U.S. was not present at the peace conference. According to one
analyst, the Europeans are furious at Donald Trump for pulling out of
the Iran nuclear deal and for the tariff policy, and didn't want the
peace conference to turn into a pure Trump-bashing conference, so they
didn't invite the US.
The purpose was to make the ceasefire in Idlib permanent. There are
over three million people in Idlib, and half of them are displaced
people who fled al-Assad's violence in the other three de-escalation
zones. Of the three million civilians, there are an estimated 60,000
or so anti-Assad rebels in Idlib, including both "moderate" rebels and
jihadists in al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly the
al-Nusra Front.
Bashar al-Assad has made it clear that he plans an assault on Idlib,
and is willing to kill three million people to do so, since he
considers them all the be "terrorists." If there is an assault on
Idlib, there will be a massive humanitarian disaster, and hundreds of
thousands or millions of people will pour across the border into
Turkey, which is already hosting 3.5 million Syrian refugees. Some of
the Idlib refugees will undoubtedly continue on into Europe, resulting
in a new European migrant crisis.
That's why Merkel and Macron are at the meeting, calling for a
political solution that makes the Idlib ceasefire permanent. And
that's why the meeting is considered a diplomatic victory for Erdogan,
since he thinks that Merkel and Macron will pressure Putin into
agreeing to a permanent ceasefire.
On September 17, Erdogan and Putin met in Sochi, and they reached an
agreement to stabilize Idlib. A buffer zone would be set up, with the
Syrian army on one side, and the rest of Idlib on the other. Turkey
would guarantee that all rebel weapons would be removed from the
buffer zone, and that Turkey would patrol the buffer zone and
guarantee that it is weapons-free.
Since then, there are been sporadic violations of the buffer zone on
both sides, but Turkey claims that it has succeeded in clearing the
buffer zone. So the purpose of Saturday's peace conference was to
agree to make the ceasefire permanent.
No such agreement was reached, of course. A secondary objective, to
form a constitutional committee for Syria, was rejected by al-Assad.
In fact, the meeting was a failure except for a few laughable
expressions of hope and change.
At the press conference after the meeting, Macron said, "We should be
vigilant that the ceasefire in Syria will be long lasting." Merkel
said, "A political solution is necessary besides military
solutions. We will not tolerate the use of chemical weapons in Syria."
Haha.
We've seen this movie several times before. Al-Assad and Putin commit
to some kind of ceasefire, with absolutely no intention to keep the
commitment, and use the negotiations as cover to launch a new
genocidal offensive. Sooner or later, something will happen that
al-Assad can use as an excuse, and the assault will begin.
This time it will be different, however. In Aleppo, Ghouta and Daara,
there were a few hundred thousand people, and many of them were
permitted to escape to Idlib.
In Idlib, there are over three million people, and they have no place
to escape to. As I wrote at length earlier this month,
this situation has all the makings of a
traditional tragedy in the classical Greek sense. There are three
major protagonists, al-Assad, Putin and Erdogan, and they're headed
for a massive, tragic, calamitous ending that cannot be prevented by
them or anybody else. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Deutsche Welle
Related Articles:
- U.N. Security Council adopts farcical 'peace plan' for Syria (22-Mar-2012)
- Lakhdar Brahimi to replace Kofi Annan as Syria peace envoy (18-Aug-2012)
- Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva (25-Jan-2016)
- Russian-led Syria peace talks collapse in Astana, Kazakhstan (06-Jul-2017)
- As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy (05-Oct-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, France, Emmanuel Macron,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Kofi Annan, Lakhdar Brahimi, Staffan de Mistura, Idlib,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, chlorine gas, Sarin gas,
Aleppo, Ghouta, Daara
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
