10-29-2018, 10:51 PM
*** 30-Oct-18 World View -- Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections
****
![[Image: g181029b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181029b.jpg)
Supporters hold a picture of Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck in Bangkok on Aug 5, 2017. (AFP)
Thailand's prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has announced that a new
general election will be held in 2019, possibly on February 24.
Prayuth himself is prime minister because he was appointed by a
military junta that overthrew the elected government of Yingluck
Shinawatra in 2014 in a coup. Under domestic and international
pressure, Prayuth has promised five times to schedule a general
election, but has always failed to do so.
It's possible that he won't keep his promise this time either. After
the 2014 coup, he promised elections in early 2015, then in 2016, and
then in November 2018. Now it's 2019 - maybe.
The reason that Prayuth may again kill election plans is because he
knows that his side will almost certainly lose. The vast majority of
the population are the dark-skinned lower class indigenous people,
also called "Thai-Thai" and "red shirts," comprising about 3/4 of the
population, living mostly in the northern and northeastern regions of
Thailand, but who come to Bangkok mostly to work in menial jobs
serving the Thai-Chinese.
The Thai-Chinese, also called "yellow shirts," are the light-skinned
descendants of a wave of Chinese workers that poured into the country
to find jobs in the 1930s. They comprise 1/4 of the population, live
mostly around Bangkok, and are extremely contemptuous of the
indigenous Thai-Thai, whom they consider to be inferior. Prayuth
hates the Thai-Thai people, and knows that they'll win a general
election, which is why he'll probably do all he can to avoid one.
Straits Times and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 29-Dec-2017) and Channel News Asia
****
**** The shadow of Thaksin Shinawatra
****
The Pheu Thai Party (Puea Thai Party), originally called the Thai Rak
Thai (TRT) party, is the party of the indigenous "red shirt" people,
led by Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin was prime minister from 2001-2006,
when he was ousted by a military coup. He then engineered a series of
election victories for prime ministers from hie Pheu Thai party, but
in each case the army used some artifice to overthrow the elected
prime minister.
In one case, the elected prime minister Samak Sundaravej was thrown
out of office by a court because he previously had a cooking show on
tv, and that was a conflict of interest. ( "Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war"
.)
In the most recent case, Thaksin's sister Yingluck Shinawatra won the
2011 election as the first female prime minister, with her election
campaign scripted by her brother Thaksin, who at that time was living
in exile in Dubai. ( "Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes"
)
However, Yingluck's use of femininity during her time in office didn't
seem to work with the military junta that overthrew her in a coup in
2014. She was charged with corruption and convicted in 2017, but fled
the country in August just before she was scheduled to be sentenced
and jailed. Many observers believe that the army purposely looked the
other way when she fled the country, fearing that if she were jailed
there would be popular riots by her supporters. She was sentenced
in absentia to five years in jail.
Thaksin and Yingluck are still extremely popular in Thailand, and they
still yield a great deal of influence in the Pheu Thai party.
According to one analyst, "You have to understand how powerful the
Thaksin ‘brand’ is among his supporters. For his working class
supporters he is still seen as a hero, who delivered to those people
who voted for him what he promised, until he was unjustly overthrown
by the ‘elite’."
Thaksin has been traveling to London, Hong Kong and Singapore,
remaining out of reach of the Thai authorities. He recently gave an
interview in which he said that all the "pro-democracy parties,"
including his own Pheu Thai, should unite behind a single candidate.
"It's time for [voters] to cast their ballots ... to dump the
dictatorship of Thailand."
After giving this interview, a member of the ruling military junta in
Thailand, urged the Election Commission to look into whether Thaksin
exercises control over the affairs of the Pheu Thai party from
abroad. If a probe takes place and finds that Thaksin still retains
influence, it could lead to dissolution of the party for several
years. Bangkok Post and Nikkei and South China Morning Post and Al Jazeera
****
**** Brief generational history of Thailand
****
Part of Thailand's history was made famous by Anna Leonowens, who came
from London to Siam (as it was known then) to be the governess and
teacher of the many children of King Mongkut (Rama IV) in the 1860s.
In 1895, she wrote memoirs that were turned into a film, "Anna and the
King of Siam" in 1946, and into the 1952 Rodgers and Hammerstein
Broadway musical, "The King and I."
If you have a few minutes, then watch the YouTube video of "The
March of the Siamese Children," from the 1956 film, "The King and I."
It depicts Anna's first meeting with the children.
The play depicts a troubled king trying to lead a small country
surrounded by large enemies, and willing to use invasion, torture and
other atrocities.
King Rama had fought a generational crisis war in the early 1830s when
he had invaded Laos and Cambodia, but ended up losing to a Vietnamese
army.
Siam's next generational crisis war occurred in what is now southern
Thailand. For centuries, Siam's kings had felt that the Muslims in
southern Siam were a major threat to the security of the country,
mainly because resistance and rebellion against Thai government rule
were so strong among the Muslim population, and in fact the
southern Muslims had revolted during the 1830s crisis war.
By the late 1800s this threat had been felt to be critical, and in
1902 King Rama V invaded and annexed the Malay kingdom of Patani,
consisting of the four provinces of Satun, Yala, Pattani and
Narathiwat. (Note: The kingdom is spelled "Patani," while the
province is spelled "Pattani.") In 1909, an Anglo-Siamese Agreement
established the present border between Thailand and Malaysia.
During the next few decades, Siam (which became Thailand in 1939) was
faced with the problem of trying to assimilate the southern Muslim
population into what is essentially a Buddhist country. During the
generational Awakening era that followed, the military coup of 1932
overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it with
constitutional monarchy. This was a representative form of government
that promised a high degree of political participation of the
Malay-Muslims in the South. However, as World War II (an Awakening
era war for Thailand) approached, the country became more
Thai-nationalistic, and the country adopted a policy of forced
assimilation towards the Muslims, which had little success,
as resistance and rebellion have continued since then.
The 1930s also saw a large influx of migrants from China, coming to
the country to work. Over the decades, they were able to displace the
indigenous people in positions of power in government, and in control
of businesses. This formed an ethnic fault line between the
indigenous Thai-Thai majority and the elite Thai-Chinese minority.
The next generational crisis war was the Cambodian "killing fields"
war, 1975-79, in which Pol Pot's communist Khmer Rouge government,
backed by China, killed almost ten million people in a massive
genocide. The Cambodian war spilled over into Thailand in the form of
a communist rebellion that had begun in the 1960s. King Bhumibol
(Rama IX) became an essential figure in the fight against the
communists, although his role became more controversial in the savage
anti-leftist coup of 1976, in which dozens of students were brutally
killed by the security forces and royal-backed militias, and thousands
forced to flee to seek sanctuary with the Communist Party.
The Cambodian "killing fields" civil war took place on Thailand's
doorstep, though not on Thai soil. Still, it caused a split along the
Thai-Thai versus Thai-Chinese fault line that continues to the present
time. Today, Thailand is in a new generational Awakening/Unraveling
era, and we're seeing a repeat of what happened in the 1930s.
During the generational Awakening era of the 1930s, the military
coup of 1932 overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it
with constitutional monarchy that gave some power to the southern
Muslims, only to have it taken away a few years later.
During the current era, the 1997 constitution guaranteed free
elections for everyone, including the indigenous Thai-Thai,
and now that's being taken away by a military junta.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Yale: Thailand’s Response to the Cambodian Genocide and Cornell: History and Politics of the Muslims in Thailand (PDF) and
Communist Party of Thailand
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra,
Yingluck Shinawatra, Pheu Thai Party, Puea Thai Party, Thai Rak Thai, TRT,
Prayuth Chan-ocha, Samak Sundaravej,
Anna Leonowens, Siam, King Mongkut, Rama IV,
Anna and the King of Siam, Rodgers and Hammerstein, The King and I,
Rama V, Malaysia, Kingdom of Patani, Satun, Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat,
China, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Killing fields, King Bhumibol, Rama IX
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections
- The shadow of Thaksin Shinawatra
- Brief generational history of Thailand
****
**** Thailand and Thaksin Shinawatra prepare for new national elections
****
Supporters hold a picture of Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck in Bangkok on Aug 5, 2017. (AFP)
Thailand's prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha has announced that a new
general election will be held in 2019, possibly on February 24.
Prayuth himself is prime minister because he was appointed by a
military junta that overthrew the elected government of Yingluck
Shinawatra in 2014 in a coup. Under domestic and international
pressure, Prayuth has promised five times to schedule a general
election, but has always failed to do so.
It's possible that he won't keep his promise this time either. After
the 2014 coup, he promised elections in early 2015, then in 2016, and
then in November 2018. Now it's 2019 - maybe.
The reason that Prayuth may again kill election plans is because he
knows that his side will almost certainly lose. The vast majority of
the population are the dark-skinned lower class indigenous people,
also called "Thai-Thai" and "red shirts," comprising about 3/4 of the
population, living mostly in the northern and northeastern regions of
Thailand, but who come to Bangkok mostly to work in menial jobs
serving the Thai-Chinese.
The Thai-Chinese, also called "yellow shirts," are the light-skinned
descendants of a wave of Chinese workers that poured into the country
to find jobs in the 1930s. They comprise 1/4 of the population, live
mostly around Bangkok, and are extremely contemptuous of the
indigenous Thai-Thai, whom they consider to be inferior. Prayuth
hates the Thai-Thai people, and knows that they'll win a general
election, which is why he'll probably do all he can to avoid one.
Straits Times and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 29-Dec-2017) and Channel News Asia
****
**** The shadow of Thaksin Shinawatra
****
The Pheu Thai Party (Puea Thai Party), originally called the Thai Rak
Thai (TRT) party, is the party of the indigenous "red shirt" people,
led by Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin was prime minister from 2001-2006,
when he was ousted by a military coup. He then engineered a series of
election victories for prime ministers from hie Pheu Thai party, but
in each case the army used some artifice to overthrow the elected
prime minister.
In one case, the elected prime minister Samak Sundaravej was thrown
out of office by a court because he previously had a cooking show on
tv, and that was a conflict of interest. ( "Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war"
.)
In the most recent case, Thaksin's sister Yingluck Shinawatra won the
2011 election as the first female prime minister, with her election
campaign scripted by her brother Thaksin, who at that time was living
in exile in Dubai. ( "Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes"
)
However, Yingluck's use of femininity during her time in office didn't
seem to work with the military junta that overthrew her in a coup in
2014. She was charged with corruption and convicted in 2017, but fled
the country in August just before she was scheduled to be sentenced
and jailed. Many observers believe that the army purposely looked the
other way when she fled the country, fearing that if she were jailed
there would be popular riots by her supporters. She was sentenced
in absentia to five years in jail.
Thaksin and Yingluck are still extremely popular in Thailand, and they
still yield a great deal of influence in the Pheu Thai party.
According to one analyst, "You have to understand how powerful the
Thaksin ‘brand’ is among his supporters. For his working class
supporters he is still seen as a hero, who delivered to those people
who voted for him what he promised, until he was unjustly overthrown
by the ‘elite’."
Thaksin has been traveling to London, Hong Kong and Singapore,
remaining out of reach of the Thai authorities. He recently gave an
interview in which he said that all the "pro-democracy parties,"
including his own Pheu Thai, should unite behind a single candidate.
"It's time for [voters] to cast their ballots ... to dump the
dictatorship of Thailand."
After giving this interview, a member of the ruling military junta in
Thailand, urged the Election Commission to look into whether Thaksin
exercises control over the affairs of the Pheu Thai party from
abroad. If a probe takes place and finds that Thaksin still retains
influence, it could lead to dissolution of the party for several
years. Bangkok Post and Nikkei and South China Morning Post and Al Jazeera
****
**** Brief generational history of Thailand
****
Part of Thailand's history was made famous by Anna Leonowens, who came
from London to Siam (as it was known then) to be the governess and
teacher of the many children of King Mongkut (Rama IV) in the 1860s.
In 1895, she wrote memoirs that were turned into a film, "Anna and the
King of Siam" in 1946, and into the 1952 Rodgers and Hammerstein
Broadway musical, "The King and I."
If you have a few minutes, then watch the YouTube video of "The
March of the Siamese Children," from the 1956 film, "The King and I."
It depicts Anna's first meeting with the children.
The play depicts a troubled king trying to lead a small country
surrounded by large enemies, and willing to use invasion, torture and
other atrocities.
King Rama had fought a generational crisis war in the early 1830s when
he had invaded Laos and Cambodia, but ended up losing to a Vietnamese
army.
Siam's next generational crisis war occurred in what is now southern
Thailand. For centuries, Siam's kings had felt that the Muslims in
southern Siam were a major threat to the security of the country,
mainly because resistance and rebellion against Thai government rule
were so strong among the Muslim population, and in fact the
southern Muslims had revolted during the 1830s crisis war.
By the late 1800s this threat had been felt to be critical, and in
1902 King Rama V invaded and annexed the Malay kingdom of Patani,
consisting of the four provinces of Satun, Yala, Pattani and
Narathiwat. (Note: The kingdom is spelled "Patani," while the
province is spelled "Pattani.") In 1909, an Anglo-Siamese Agreement
established the present border between Thailand and Malaysia.
During the next few decades, Siam (which became Thailand in 1939) was
faced with the problem of trying to assimilate the southern Muslim
population into what is essentially a Buddhist country. During the
generational Awakening era that followed, the military coup of 1932
overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it with
constitutional monarchy. This was a representative form of government
that promised a high degree of political participation of the
Malay-Muslims in the South. However, as World War II (an Awakening
era war for Thailand) approached, the country became more
Thai-nationalistic, and the country adopted a policy of forced
assimilation towards the Muslims, which had little success,
as resistance and rebellion have continued since then.
The 1930s also saw a large influx of migrants from China, coming to
the country to work. Over the decades, they were able to displace the
indigenous people in positions of power in government, and in control
of businesses. This formed an ethnic fault line between the
indigenous Thai-Thai majority and the elite Thai-Chinese minority.
The next generational crisis war was the Cambodian "killing fields"
war, 1975-79, in which Pol Pot's communist Khmer Rouge government,
backed by China, killed almost ten million people in a massive
genocide. The Cambodian war spilled over into Thailand in the form of
a communist rebellion that had begun in the 1960s. King Bhumibol
(Rama IX) became an essential figure in the fight against the
communists, although his role became more controversial in the savage
anti-leftist coup of 1976, in which dozens of students were brutally
killed by the security forces and royal-backed militias, and thousands
forced to flee to seek sanctuary with the Communist Party.
The Cambodian "killing fields" civil war took place on Thailand's
doorstep, though not on Thai soil. Still, it caused a split along the
Thai-Thai versus Thai-Chinese fault line that continues to the present
time. Today, Thailand is in a new generational Awakening/Unraveling
era, and we're seeing a repeat of what happened in the 1930s.
During the generational Awakening era of the 1930s, the military
coup of 1932 overthrew the absolute monarchy in Siam and replaced it
with constitutional monarchy that gave some power to the southern
Muslims, only to have it taken away a few years later.
During the current era, the 1997 constitution guaranteed free
elections for everyone, including the indigenous Thai-Thai,
and now that's being taken away by a military junta.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Yale: Thailand’s Response to the Cambodian Genocide and Cornell: History and Politics of the Muslims in Thailand (PDF) and
Communist Party of Thailand
Related Articles
- Thailand's former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra flees to Dubai (26-Aug-2017)
- Thailand's Yingluck Shinawatra wins decisively (04-Jul-2011)
- Thailand's Yingluck promises to use 'femininity' to resolve disputes (01-Jul-2011)
- Thailand government collapses, ending crippling riots from class war (03-Dec-2008)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Thailand, Thaksin Shinawatra,
Yingluck Shinawatra, Pheu Thai Party, Puea Thai Party, Thai Rak Thai, TRT,
Prayuth Chan-ocha, Samak Sundaravej,
Anna Leonowens, Siam, King Mongkut, Rama IV,
Anna and the King of Siam, Rodgers and Hammerstein, The King and I,
Rama V, Malaysia, Kingdom of Patani, Satun, Yala, Pattani, Narathiwat,
China, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Killing fields, King Bhumibol, Rama IX
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
