11-07-2018, 11:49 PM
*** 8-Nov-18 World View -- The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Yemen war violence intensifies as 30-day ceasefire deadline approaches
****
![[Image: g181107b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181107b.jpg)
Building in Sanaa destroyed by an airstrike last week (EPA)
On October 31, Secretary of Defense James Mattis called for a
ceasefire in the Yemen war in 30 days, or by the end of November. A
first step would require Iran to stop supplying missiles to the
insurgent Houthis:
<QUOTE>"[T]alk about demilitarizing the border so that the
Saudis and the [United Arab] Emirates do not have to worry about
missiles coming into their homes and cities and airports. [A
cease-fire arrangement should] ensure that all the missiles that
Iran has provided to the Houthis are put under international watch
in parks somewhere, where they can be kept accounted
for."<END QUOTE>
Unfortunately, that's already delusional. Iran would never agree to
that condition, or if it agreed, it wouldn't honor the commitment. In
fact, Iran already claims that it doesn't supply missiles to the
Houthis, so Iran could agree to this condition and then just keep
doing what it's doing.
Next, Mattis said:
<QUOTE>"[Such a truce would help] set the conditions for
[Yemeni factions to] return to traditional areas inside Yemen, and
a government that allows for this amount of local autonomy that
the Houthis or that southerners want."<END QUOTE>
Once again, this is delusional. The traditional are for the Houthis
is northwest Yemen, far outside the capital city Sanaa.
<QUOTE>"The longer-term solution, and by longer-term, I mean
30 days from now, we want to see everybody sitting around the
table, based on a cease-fire, based on a pullback from the border,
and then based on ceasing dropping of bombs, that will permit the
[U.N.] special envoy—Martin Griffiths, who's very good, he knows
what he's doing—to get them together in Sweden and end this war.
It’s time to stop [the Yemen war]. And right now, what the
Iranians have done by bringing in anti-ship missiles ... it’s
interrupted freedom of navigation, they are the ones who keep
fueling this conflict and they need to knock it off."<END QUOTE>
This is all fantasy. None of this is going to happen. But what's
interesting is that pretty much the opposite has happened.
Fearing that US support for the war might end in 30 days, Saudi Arabia
has redoubled its attacks on Yemen's al-Hodeidah seaport. Two hundred
air strikes were reported in and around Hodeidah on Saturday alone.
Artillery shells had also hit residential areas and temporary
roadblocks had prevented people from leaving or entering the city
overnight, in effect trapping them in an active conflict zone, it
added.
The UN says Yemen is on the brink of the world's worst famine in 100
years. The assault on the al-Hodeidah seaport has blocked
humanitarian aid, including food and medicines, from reaching much of
Yemen, with the danger of a worsening humanitarian crisis. US Institute for Peace and Arab News and
BBC
and CNN
****
**** The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war
****
With so many people being killed in so many ways every day, it's
somewhat startling to see that one particular murder, that of
Washington Post columnist and Saudi national Jamal Khashoggi by other
Saudi Nationals in Istanbul on October 2, has been the cause of so
much international chaos.
There are three reasons for this, in my opinion. First, the murder
was particularly gruesome, ordered by the highest officials in the
Saudi government, and the body has not yet been produced. Second,
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been dribbling out the
facts of the case, so that every day there's a new revelation to
embarrass the Saudi government. And third, the al-Jazeera news
network, based in and funded by the government of Qatar, which has
become Saudi Arabia's mortal enemy, is doing everything possible to
keep the story alive, with lengthy coverage of the latest in every
newscast.
The Khashoggi murder has also had geopolitical consequences. As I
recently reported,
Pakistan's new
prime minister Imran Khan was able to use the Khashoggi scandal as
leverage to convince Saudi Arabia to provide $6 billion in aid.
It now appears that the Khashoggi murder is also changing the
direction of the Yemen war. The murder has strengthened the hand of
activists in the UK and Washington who want Saudi Arabia to end the
Yemen war. The statement by Secretary of Defense James Mattis,
excerpted above, was an outcome of the Khashoggi murder.
The Yemen war has been a disaster for Saudi Arabia. Despite repeated
promises that the war would end quickly, the Saudis are completely
bogged in a seemingly never-ending war. They would love for Mattis'
recommendations to succeed, but in the end that would hand Yemen over
to the Iranians, and they can't agree to that.
However, we're already seeing unintended consequences, specifically
Saudi Arabia doubling down on the violent assault on Hodeidah. The
proposal by Mattis was a ceasefire by all parties, including Iran, the
Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE), and then have a
peace conference in Geneva. That was never going to happen of, if it
did, it would have resulted in a "peace process" with no commitments
honored by the parties. History shows that this kind of peace process
will not work.
Khashoggi's murder has led to Mattis' statement, which has led to a
massive increase in the violence in the Hodeidah attack. The Saudis
want to bring the Houthis to their knees, and force a negotiated truce
under terms favorable to the Saudis. History shows that this kind of
attack will not work either. This kind of attack only works when it
is at the climax of a generational crisis war, and then only when all
the parties are so war-weary and exhausted that they'll agree to end
the war. The Yemen war is nowhere near a climax. Saudi Gazette and
Foreign Policy and New Yorker and Al-Jazeera
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Hodeidah, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Iran, James Mattis, Houthis,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Jamal Khashoggi, Pakistan, Imran Khan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Yemen war violence intensifies as 30-day ceasefire deadline approaches
- The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war
****
**** Yemen war violence intensifies as 30-day ceasefire deadline approaches
****
Building in Sanaa destroyed by an airstrike last week (EPA)
On October 31, Secretary of Defense James Mattis called for a
ceasefire in the Yemen war in 30 days, or by the end of November. A
first step would require Iran to stop supplying missiles to the
insurgent Houthis:
<QUOTE>"[T]alk about demilitarizing the border so that the
Saudis and the [United Arab] Emirates do not have to worry about
missiles coming into their homes and cities and airports. [A
cease-fire arrangement should] ensure that all the missiles that
Iran has provided to the Houthis are put under international watch
in parks somewhere, where they can be kept accounted
for."<END QUOTE>
Unfortunately, that's already delusional. Iran would never agree to
that condition, or if it agreed, it wouldn't honor the commitment. In
fact, Iran already claims that it doesn't supply missiles to the
Houthis, so Iran could agree to this condition and then just keep
doing what it's doing.
Next, Mattis said:
<QUOTE>"[Such a truce would help] set the conditions for
[Yemeni factions to] return to traditional areas inside Yemen, and
a government that allows for this amount of local autonomy that
the Houthis or that southerners want."<END QUOTE>
Once again, this is delusional. The traditional are for the Houthis
is northwest Yemen, far outside the capital city Sanaa.
<QUOTE>"The longer-term solution, and by longer-term, I mean
30 days from now, we want to see everybody sitting around the
table, based on a cease-fire, based on a pullback from the border,
and then based on ceasing dropping of bombs, that will permit the
[U.N.] special envoy—Martin Griffiths, who's very good, he knows
what he's doing—to get them together in Sweden and end this war.
It’s time to stop [the Yemen war]. And right now, what the
Iranians have done by bringing in anti-ship missiles ... it’s
interrupted freedom of navigation, they are the ones who keep
fueling this conflict and they need to knock it off."<END QUOTE>
This is all fantasy. None of this is going to happen. But what's
interesting is that pretty much the opposite has happened.
Fearing that US support for the war might end in 30 days, Saudi Arabia
has redoubled its attacks on Yemen's al-Hodeidah seaport. Two hundred
air strikes were reported in and around Hodeidah on Saturday alone.
Artillery shells had also hit residential areas and temporary
roadblocks had prevented people from leaving or entering the city
overnight, in effect trapping them in an active conflict zone, it
added.
The UN says Yemen is on the brink of the world's worst famine in 100
years. The assault on the al-Hodeidah seaport has blocked
humanitarian aid, including food and medicines, from reaching much of
Yemen, with the danger of a worsening humanitarian crisis. US Institute for Peace and Arab News and
BBC
and CNN
****
**** The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war
****
With so many people being killed in so many ways every day, it's
somewhat startling to see that one particular murder, that of
Washington Post columnist and Saudi national Jamal Khashoggi by other
Saudi Nationals in Istanbul on October 2, has been the cause of so
much international chaos.
There are three reasons for this, in my opinion. First, the murder
was particularly gruesome, ordered by the highest officials in the
Saudi government, and the body has not yet been produced. Second,
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been dribbling out the
facts of the case, so that every day there's a new revelation to
embarrass the Saudi government. And third, the al-Jazeera news
network, based in and funded by the government of Qatar, which has
become Saudi Arabia's mortal enemy, is doing everything possible to
keep the story alive, with lengthy coverage of the latest in every
newscast.
The Khashoggi murder has also had geopolitical consequences. As I
recently reported,
Pakistan's new
prime minister Imran Khan was able to use the Khashoggi scandal as
leverage to convince Saudi Arabia to provide $6 billion in aid.
It now appears that the Khashoggi murder is also changing the
direction of the Yemen war. The murder has strengthened the hand of
activists in the UK and Washington who want Saudi Arabia to end the
Yemen war. The statement by Secretary of Defense James Mattis,
excerpted above, was an outcome of the Khashoggi murder.
The Yemen war has been a disaster for Saudi Arabia. Despite repeated
promises that the war would end quickly, the Saudis are completely
bogged in a seemingly never-ending war. They would love for Mattis'
recommendations to succeed, but in the end that would hand Yemen over
to the Iranians, and they can't agree to that.
However, we're already seeing unintended consequences, specifically
Saudi Arabia doubling down on the violent assault on Hodeidah. The
proposal by Mattis was a ceasefire by all parties, including Iran, the
Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE), and then have a
peace conference in Geneva. That was never going to happen of, if it
did, it would have resulted in a "peace process" with no commitments
honored by the parties. History shows that this kind of peace process
will not work.
Khashoggi's murder has led to Mattis' statement, which has led to a
massive increase in the violence in the Hodeidah attack. The Saudis
want to bring the Houthis to their knees, and force a negotiated truce
under terms favorable to the Saudis. History shows that this kind of
attack will not work either. This kind of attack only works when it
is at the climax of a generational crisis war, and then only when all
the parties are so war-weary and exhausted that they'll agree to end
the war. The Yemen war is nowhere near a climax. Saudi Gazette and
Foreign Policy and New Yorker and Al-Jazeera
Related Articles:
- Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis (25-Oct-2018)
- Saudis target women and children in Yemen to make them 'shiver' for generations (28-Aug-2018)
- Saudi coalition claims to have captured airport in Yemen's Hodeidah (20-Jun-2018)
- Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen (15-Jun-2018)
- Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
- Brief generational history of South Yemen (29-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Hodeidah, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Iran, James Mattis, Houthis,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Jamal Khashoggi, Pakistan, Imran Khan
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
