11-14-2018, 12:27 AM
*** 14-Nov-18 World View -- Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution
****
![[Image: g181113b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181113b.jpg)
Fayez al-Serraj (L), Giuseppe Conte © and Khalifa Haftar. Conte got them to shake hands and smile, even though al-Serraj and Haftar hate each other (AFP)
Seven years after the fall of long-time dictator Muammar Gaddafi,
Libya now has two governments. In the West, including the capital
city Tripoli, Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj leads a weak government,
known as the Government of National Accord (GNA), internationally
recognized by America, Europe and the United Nations.
Most of the east of Libya is ruled by Khalifa Haftar, a military
strongman and former Gaddafi ally, who is considered an international
"renegade." There are fears that a war will break out between the
eastern and western factions at some time in the near future.
It's doubtful that most Europeans care deeply who is in charge of
Libya, but one thing that they do care deeply about is the flow of
migrants from Libya to Europe. For that reason, the Europeans want to
see a single government in Libya, and a government with which it can
negotiate to keep the migrant flow under control.
Libya's former colonial power, Italy, hosted a conference in Palermo
on Tuesday, to bring all interested parties together, with the
objective of having an election for the leader of a unified
government.
The conference was hosted by Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte.
About 20 countries are participating in the conference, including
representatives from the US, European governments and Arab countries.
Top names in attendance include Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah
el-Sisi, Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, European Council
President Donald Tusk and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini.
The conference didn't accomplish much, but there was a lot of drama.
Originally, Haftar refused to say whether he would even come to
Palermo. Then Haftar did arrive, but on Tuesday said that he would
not attend the conference, choosing instead to "hold a series of
meetings with presidents of regional countries to discuss the latest
national and international developments" on the sidelines.
So then Haftar attended a meeting on the sidelines of conference, also
attended by Fayez al-Serraj, as well as leaders of France, Russia and
Italy.
However, Turkey was not invited to that particular meeting. Turkey's
vice president Fuat Oktay stormed out of the international conference,
blaming Conte for "attempts to keep Turkey out of the process" in
Libya.
At the end of the conference, there was no statement issued. But the
parties agreed that an election previously scheduled for December
would not be held, but would be postponed to May of next year. And
many people considered the conference a great success, simply because
Fayez al-Serraj and Khalifa Haftar smiled and shook hands. Deutsche Welle and Hurriyet Daily News (Turkey) and Middle East Eye and Reuters
****
**** Split in Libya reflects the fault line in the Arab world
****
One reason that the split between east and west Libya hasn't been
resolved is their supporters are split along the same growing fault
line that became apparent several years ago.
Turkey, Qatar and Italy all support the western GNA government of
Fayez al-Serraj, and are supportive of Islamists, including the Muslim
Brotherhood. Russia, France, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
support Haftar, who is an anti-Islamist military man.
This split in the Arab world has been growing in recent years. Recall
that in June of last year, several Arab states, including Saudi
Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and United Arab Emirates (UAE), broke relations
with Qatar and imposed an air, sea and land blockade on Qatar.
The blockade is still in place, with no
end in sight, despite international attempts to resolve it.
More recently, the assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal
Khashoggi, apparently by a Saudi hit squad, has continued as an
international incident, adding more tensions between Saudi Arabia
versus Turkey and Qatar.
This deepening split among the Arab and Mideast nations makes it all
the more unlikely that agreement will be reached on a unified
government in Libya.
The situation is complicated still further by signs that Russia is
deepening its military involvement in Libya, sending in Vladimir
Putin's "private" military companies (PMCs), as he has done in Syria
and Central African Republic. (See "7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic"
)
Putin has taken an interest in Libya at least since the overthrow of
Gaddafi in 2011, and has actively supported Khalifa Haftar. There have
already been military clashes between Haftar's forces and militias
around Tripoli in the West, and the involvement of Russia makes Syrian
war situation more likely than an election. Al-Jazeera (Qatar) and Meduza (Russia) and Jamestown
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Italy, Giuseppe Conte,
Government of National Accord, GNA, Fayez al-Serraj,
Khalifa Haftar, Turkey, Fuat Oktay,
Turkey, Qatar, Muslim Brotherhood, Russia, France, Egypt,
United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Jamal Khashoggi, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Private Military Companies, PMCs, Central African Republic, CAR
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution
- Split in Libya reflects the fault line in the Arab world
****
**** Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution
****
Fayez al-Serraj (L), Giuseppe Conte © and Khalifa Haftar. Conte got them to shake hands and smile, even though al-Serraj and Haftar hate each other (AFP)
Seven years after the fall of long-time dictator Muammar Gaddafi,
Libya now has two governments. In the West, including the capital
city Tripoli, Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj leads a weak government,
known as the Government of National Accord (GNA), internationally
recognized by America, Europe and the United Nations.
Most of the east of Libya is ruled by Khalifa Haftar, a military
strongman and former Gaddafi ally, who is considered an international
"renegade." There are fears that a war will break out between the
eastern and western factions at some time in the near future.
It's doubtful that most Europeans care deeply who is in charge of
Libya, but one thing that they do care deeply about is the flow of
migrants from Libya to Europe. For that reason, the Europeans want to
see a single government in Libya, and a government with which it can
negotiate to keep the migrant flow under control.
Libya's former colonial power, Italy, hosted a conference in Palermo
on Tuesday, to bring all interested parties together, with the
objective of having an election for the leader of a unified
government.
The conference was hosted by Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte.
About 20 countries are participating in the conference, including
representatives from the US, European governments and Arab countries.
Top names in attendance include Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah
el-Sisi, Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, European Council
President Donald Tusk and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini.
The conference didn't accomplish much, but there was a lot of drama.
Originally, Haftar refused to say whether he would even come to
Palermo. Then Haftar did arrive, but on Tuesday said that he would
not attend the conference, choosing instead to "hold a series of
meetings with presidents of regional countries to discuss the latest
national and international developments" on the sidelines.
So then Haftar attended a meeting on the sidelines of conference, also
attended by Fayez al-Serraj, as well as leaders of France, Russia and
Italy.
However, Turkey was not invited to that particular meeting. Turkey's
vice president Fuat Oktay stormed out of the international conference,
blaming Conte for "attempts to keep Turkey out of the process" in
Libya.
At the end of the conference, there was no statement issued. But the
parties agreed that an election previously scheduled for December
would not be held, but would be postponed to May of next year. And
many people considered the conference a great success, simply because
Fayez al-Serraj and Khalifa Haftar smiled and shook hands. Deutsche Welle and Hurriyet Daily News (Turkey) and Middle East Eye and Reuters
****
**** Split in Libya reflects the fault line in the Arab world
****
One reason that the split between east and west Libya hasn't been
resolved is their supporters are split along the same growing fault
line that became apparent several years ago.
Turkey, Qatar and Italy all support the western GNA government of
Fayez al-Serraj, and are supportive of Islamists, including the Muslim
Brotherhood. Russia, France, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
support Haftar, who is an anti-Islamist military man.
This split in the Arab world has been growing in recent years. Recall
that in June of last year, several Arab states, including Saudi
Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and United Arab Emirates (UAE), broke relations
with Qatar and imposed an air, sea and land blockade on Qatar.
The blockade is still in place, with no
end in sight, despite international attempts to resolve it.
More recently, the assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal
Khashoggi, apparently by a Saudi hit squad, has continued as an
international incident, adding more tensions between Saudi Arabia
versus Turkey and Qatar.
This deepening split among the Arab and Mideast nations makes it all
the more unlikely that agreement will be reached on a unified
government in Libya.
The situation is complicated still further by signs that Russia is
deepening its military involvement in Libya, sending in Vladimir
Putin's "private" military companies (PMCs), as he has done in Syria
and Central African Republic. (See "7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic"
)
Putin has taken an interest in Libya at least since the overthrow of
Gaddafi in 2011, and has actively supported Khalifa Haftar. There have
already been military clashes between Haftar's forces and militias
around Tripoli in the West, and the involvement of Russia makes Syrian
war situation more likely than an election. Al-Jazeera (Qatar) and Meduza (Russia) and Jamestown
Related Articles
- Russia denies reports of Russian special forces in eastern Libya (17-Mar-2017)
- A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
- Massive refugee crisis in Libya increases international calls for intervention (02-Mar-2011)
- With Libya in chaos, migrant deal with Italy collapses (16-Jan-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Italy, Giuseppe Conte,
Government of National Accord, GNA, Fayez al-Serraj,
Khalifa Haftar, Turkey, Fuat Oktay,
Turkey, Qatar, Muslim Brotherhood, Russia, France, Egypt,
United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Jamal Khashoggi, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Private Military Companies, PMCs, Central African Republic, CAR
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
