12-08-2018, 11:40 PM
*** 9-Dec-18 World View -- Latest South Sudan peace agreement appears close to collapse
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Latest South Sudan peace agreement appears close to collapse
****
![[Image: g181208b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g181208b.jpg)
Signs separating the Nuer and Dinka tribes in a UN refugee camp in South Sudan (Nyamilepedia)
There's an old saying, "Peace is that brief, glorious moment in
history when everybody stands around reloading." That saying may
apply to South Sudan, after a peace agreement was signed in September.
The peace agreement was signed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on September
12. It was signed by Salva Kiir, the leader of Dinka tribe, and
president of South Sudan. The other signer was Riek Machar, the
leader of the Nuer tribe, and vice president of South Sudan until
2013, when he was sacked by Kiir.
The sacking led to extremely bloody and violent clashes between Dinka
and Nuer militias. The conflict killed hundreds of thousands of
civilians, displaced an estimated one-quarter of the population of 12
million, and ruined the economy, which depends heavily on crude oil
production.
This was the second or third peace agreement signed since 2013. It
calls for an immediate ceasefire. It calls for an end to recruitment
of soldiers on both sides, it calls for an end to the trafficking of
young girls, and it calls for a power-sharing agreement with the
return of Machar to be vice president again in May.
Although low-level violence has been a constant since South Sudan
became independent of Sudan in 2011, there were major clashes that
began in December 2013. ( "29-Dec-2013 World View -- Conflicts grow in South Sudan and Central African Republic"
) There followed 21 months of
atrocities, until they were supposedly ended by a peace treaty that
was signed by both sides in August 2015. By mid-2016, the fight was
fully engaged again.
There are concerns that this peace agreement won't last either.
There's news emerging that in the last ten days of November, 150 girls
and women were raped near the town of Bentiu. The situation is still
being investigated.
And a new report by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights in
South Sudan says that both sides are continuing to recruit fighters,
many of them just boys.
The problem with the peace agreement is that it was signed by
politicians. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's
the people rather than the politicians who make this kind of decision.
The people who are doing the fighting are the members of the Dinka and
Nuer tribes, and they hate each other, irrespective of any peace
agreement between the politicians.
There has been a letup in the violence since the peace agreement was
signed in September, but it remains to be seen whether it will last,
or whether it was just a brief, glorious moment when both the Dinkas
and the Nuers spent the time reloading. Al Jazeera (12-Sep) and Reuters (12-Sep) and Council on Foreign Relations (26-Sep) and Sudan Tribune and
AFP
****
**** Brief generational history of South Sudan and Dinka-Nuer clashes
****
The Dinka and the Nuer tribes have had conflicts over land for
centuries. In numerous other countries, I've described how ethnic
wars grow over farmers versus herders. But in South Sudan, both the
Dinkas and Nuers are herder communities. The conflict over land is
the same, however. Clashes begin during dry periods, when both sides
compete for the same land.
Sudan was ruled by the Ottoman empire, and later by an arrangement by
an arrangement of Egyptian and British control. When Sudan became
independent of Britain in 1956, the north was largely Muslim, Arabic
speaking, while the southern population mostly followed tribal
religions. The Khartoum government in the north launched a program to
"Arabize and Islamize the South." This triggered a reaction from
Christian evangelists, mostly from the US, to come to Sudan and
convert the South to Christianity.
There was immediately a north-south war of independence, but there was
also a generational crisis civil war between the Nuer and Dinka
tribes. This was climaxed on November 15, 1991, when the "Bor
Massacre" began. Over the next three months, 2,000 civilians were
killed, thousands more wounded, at least 100,000 people fled the area.
Famine followed the massacre, as looters burnt villages and raided
cattle, resulting in the deaths of 25,000 more from starvation.
The nightmare scenario is that the new clashes will spiral into a
repeat of the 1991 Bor Massacre. But from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, South Sudan is in a generational Awakening era,
so a historic massacre of this type will not occur, despite the
enormous ethnic hatred between the Nuers and the Dinkas. Sudan Tribune (24-Nov-2018) and National Geographic (30-Sep-2014) and Vox (9-Jan-2017) and Nyamile (31-Mar-2016)
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sudan, South Sudan, Salva Kiir, Riek Machar,
Dinkas, Nuers, Bor Massacre, Ottoman Empire, Egypt, Britain, Bentiu
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Latest South Sudan peace agreement appears close to collapse
- Brief generational history of South Sudan and Dinka-Nuer clashes
****
**** Latest South Sudan peace agreement appears close to collapse
****
Signs separating the Nuer and Dinka tribes in a UN refugee camp in South Sudan (Nyamilepedia)
There's an old saying, "Peace is that brief, glorious moment in
history when everybody stands around reloading." That saying may
apply to South Sudan, after a peace agreement was signed in September.
The peace agreement was signed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on September
12. It was signed by Salva Kiir, the leader of Dinka tribe, and
president of South Sudan. The other signer was Riek Machar, the
leader of the Nuer tribe, and vice president of South Sudan until
2013, when he was sacked by Kiir.
The sacking led to extremely bloody and violent clashes between Dinka
and Nuer militias. The conflict killed hundreds of thousands of
civilians, displaced an estimated one-quarter of the population of 12
million, and ruined the economy, which depends heavily on crude oil
production.
This was the second or third peace agreement signed since 2013. It
calls for an immediate ceasefire. It calls for an end to recruitment
of soldiers on both sides, it calls for an end to the trafficking of
young girls, and it calls for a power-sharing agreement with the
return of Machar to be vice president again in May.
Although low-level violence has been a constant since South Sudan
became independent of Sudan in 2011, there were major clashes that
began in December 2013. ( "29-Dec-2013 World View -- Conflicts grow in South Sudan and Central African Republic"
) There followed 21 months of
atrocities, until they were supposedly ended by a peace treaty that
was signed by both sides in August 2015. By mid-2016, the fight was
fully engaged again.
There are concerns that this peace agreement won't last either.
There's news emerging that in the last ten days of November, 150 girls
and women were raped near the town of Bentiu. The situation is still
being investigated.
And a new report by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights in
South Sudan says that both sides are continuing to recruit fighters,
many of them just boys.
The problem with the peace agreement is that it was signed by
politicians. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's
the people rather than the politicians who make this kind of decision.
The people who are doing the fighting are the members of the Dinka and
Nuer tribes, and they hate each other, irrespective of any peace
agreement between the politicians.
There has been a letup in the violence since the peace agreement was
signed in September, but it remains to be seen whether it will last,
or whether it was just a brief, glorious moment when both the Dinkas
and the Nuers spent the time reloading. Al Jazeera (12-Sep) and Reuters (12-Sep) and Council on Foreign Relations (26-Sep) and Sudan Tribune and
AFP
****
**** Brief generational history of South Sudan and Dinka-Nuer clashes
****
The Dinka and the Nuer tribes have had conflicts over land for
centuries. In numerous other countries, I've described how ethnic
wars grow over farmers versus herders. But in South Sudan, both the
Dinkas and Nuers are herder communities. The conflict over land is
the same, however. Clashes begin during dry periods, when both sides
compete for the same land.
Sudan was ruled by the Ottoman empire, and later by an arrangement by
an arrangement of Egyptian and British control. When Sudan became
independent of Britain in 1956, the north was largely Muslim, Arabic
speaking, while the southern population mostly followed tribal
religions. The Khartoum government in the north launched a program to
"Arabize and Islamize the South." This triggered a reaction from
Christian evangelists, mostly from the US, to come to Sudan and
convert the South to Christianity.
There was immediately a north-south war of independence, but there was
also a generational crisis civil war between the Nuer and Dinka
tribes. This was climaxed on November 15, 1991, when the "Bor
Massacre" began. Over the next three months, 2,000 civilians were
killed, thousands more wounded, at least 100,000 people fled the area.
Famine followed the massacre, as looters burnt villages and raided
cattle, resulting in the deaths of 25,000 more from starvation.
The nightmare scenario is that the new clashes will spiral into a
repeat of the 1991 Bor Massacre. But from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, South Sudan is in a generational Awakening era,
so a historic massacre of this type will not occur, despite the
enormous ethnic hatred between the Nuers and the Dinkas. Sudan Tribune (24-Nov-2018) and National Geographic (30-Sep-2014) and Vox (9-Jan-2017) and Nyamile (31-Mar-2016)
Related Articles:
- Fears that renewed South Sudan tribal fighting could spiral into larger war (11-Jul-2016)
- Sudan / South Sudan border clashes affect Israel's and China's interests (27-Mar-2012)
- Conflicts grow in South Sudan and Central African Republic (29-Dec-2013)
- Uganda and China intervene in South Sudan conflict (10-Jan-2014)
- Japan's troops in South Sudan become first test of new 'collective self-defense' policy (19-Nov-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sudan, South Sudan, Salva Kiir, Riek Machar,
Dinkas, Nuers, Bor Massacre, Ottoman Empire, Egypt, Britain, Bentiu
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
