Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Dec-18 World View -- Sudan police crack down violently against anti-government protesters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sudan police crack down violently against anti-government protesters
  
• Recent generational history of Sudan
  

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**** Sudan police crack down violently against anti-government protesters
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Anti-government protesters in Atbara, Sudan, on 20-Dec wave their hands at security forces (Sudan Tribune)

As of Monday, at least 37 people have been killed by Sudan's security
forces attempting to quash anti-government protests that began in the
suburbs on Wednesday of last week, and spread to the capital city
Khartoum. Security forces have been shooting live fire and teargas
into crowds of thousands of peaceful demonstrators.

On Tuesday, police fired into the air, used teargas and hit
demonstrators with batons to disperse them as they marched to the
presidential palace to demand that Omar al-Bashir, who has been
president of Sudan for 29 years, step down. Four members of the
Central Doctors Committee, including a doctor, surgeon and medical
student -- were shot by snipers Tuesday and were recovering in the
hospital.

The protests began last Wednesday, initially over rising prices and
shortages of food and fuel, but later escalated into calls for
al-Bashir to step down. As we've seen in one African country after
another, the leader who has been in power for decades refuses to step
down and uses the army and security forces to bash, arrest, torture
and kill anyone who opposes him. There's nothing new here.

Al-Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over
alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the
Darfur conflict in western Sudan.

Sudan's last generational crisis war was World War II, and so it's
deep into a generational Crisis era. The current widespread protests
could possible spiral into a full conflict.

Sudan is a country of more than 40 million people, and is a special
case in one sense. It depends on oil revenue, and when South Sudan
broke off and became independent in 2011, Sudan lost three-quarters of
its oil revenue. CNN and Amnesty International and AFP and Sudan Tribune and Still Sudan blog

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**** Recent generational history of Sudan
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Sudan's name in Arabic means "land of the blacks," which gives an
idea of the Arab view of the nature of Sudan.

For the purposes of Generational Dynamics, it's easiest to view Sudan
as three separate regions, on three separate generational timelines:

• Northern Sudan, containing Khartoum, is the élite "white Arab
  Muslim" region (although many residents are poor and black). This
  region's last generational crisis war was WW II, and it has largely
  escaped being drawn into recent crisis wars in the other two
  regions.
  
  
• Southern Sudan, which seceded in 2011 to become the independent
  country of South Sudan, is dominated by "black Africans" who are
  Christian or hold indigenous beliefs (animism). A civil war began in
  this region in 1983. It continued until a peace deal was signed in
  2005 between the two parties - the Sudan government and the rebel
  Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA). The independence of South
  Sudan was supposed to resolve the North-South civil war, but it
  energized the tribal wars within South Sudan itself.
  
  
• Darfur (western Sudan) is dominated by "black Africans" who are
  mostly Muslim. Darfur means "land of the Fur," referring to the tribe
  of that name. However other tribes, including the Massaleet and
  Zagawa, also live in Darfur.

The Darfur conflict began in the 1970s as minor land disagreements
between farmers and camel herders. Droughts in the 1980s exacerbated
the tensions, causing low-level violence. In the 1990s, the Khartoum
government armed the Arab herders as the Janjaweed militias,
authorizing them to police the Darfur region.

In 2003, the Darfur conflict grew into a full-fledged generational
crisis war. In 2007, the United Nations Security Council authorized a
large international peacekeeping force in Darfur called UNAMID, but in
the last year has been reducing the size of UNAMID, even though
hostilities are still occurring in parts of Darfur. Sudan Tribune (12-Nov) and Mideast Forum (March 2001)

Related Articles:

• Latest South Sudan peace agreement appears close to collapse (09-Dec-2018)
  
  
• United Nations peacekeeping force in Darfur Sudan to be cut almost in half (16-Jun-2017)
  
  
• South Africa defies International Criminal Court, al-Bashir flies free (16-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Darfur genocide overshadows women's empowerment summit in South Africa (15-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Sudan's Darfur war expands as Khartoum comes under attack by rebels (14-May-2008)
  
  
• Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war (29-Apr-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sudan, Khartoum, Omar al-Bashir,
Darfur, Janjaweed Militias, South Sudan

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John J. Xenakis
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