01-01-2019, 11:45 PM
*** 2-Jan-19 World View -- Brexit chaos entangles issue of Iranian migrants crossing English Channel
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Brexit chaos continues as Britain heads for March 29 cliff
****
![[Image: g190101b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190101b.jpg)
Migrants from France arriving in Dover, England, this week (SPLASH)
It's hard to overestimate what a political disaster Brexit has been
ever since the referendum passed on June 23, 2016. Britain, and to
some extent the EU, have been almost completely deadlocked for two
years with political lockjaw. And now, the committed date when
Britain will leave the European Union is March 29, 2019.
The problem has always been the border between Northern Ireland (which
is part of the UK) and (Southern) Ireland (which will remain part of
the EU). Ireland and Northern Ireland have an extremely violent
history described as "The Troubles," which were resolved by the Good
Friday agreement in 1998 which, among other things, committed to
remove any physical border between the two, and allow free movement of
goods and people. It's been apparent since the beginning that no
solution exists to meeting the objectives of the "Brexiteers" (the
people who wanted Brexit) and maintaining a barrier-free border. So
that problem has always been insoluble and remains so today.
So there are four possibilities for what will happen on March 29:
There is no UK majority for any of these options, but if there's no
agreement, then the default will be a no-deal Brexit. In my opinion a
way will be found to avoid this, because it will be catastrophic for
the economies of both the UK and EU.
I had thought that the Brexit decision was final, once Britain
submitted its two-year notice on March 29, 2017. However, in the last
few months, an EU court has issued an opinion that Britain can reverse
the Brexit decision, provided that it does so with finality, and not
just to start up a new two-year negotiation. So that's an option.
However, if Britain's government invokes it, it will invoke the howls
of hell from people who say that the government is violating the will
of the people.
Prime minister Theresa May's plan, which I summarized in detail
in October, is a transition plan that
many consider be the worst of all possible worlds. The whole point of
why the Brexiteers wanted Brexit was to get away from the EU
regulations, EU taxes, and the European Court of Justice (ECJ). In
the transition period, all of these will remain, with the additional
restriction that the UK will have to obey all the regulations and pay
all the money, but will have no say in changing them. This plan is
almost Karmic retribution for the idiocy of going ahead with Brexit in
the first place.
However, few people like Theresa May's plan, and many pundits say that
when it comes to a vote in Parliament on January 14, it's unlikely to
pass.
That brings us to the last option -- kicking the can down the road.
It's believed that if the UK requested it, then the EU would agree to
extend the March 29 date. That would give time for more debate.
Some people want to use that time to hold a new Brexit referendum.
The problem with that option is that even among the few people who
want a new referendum, there's no agreement on what the question would
be. Would it be the same two choices as the 2016 referendum? Or
would it be the three choices, something like the first three options
in the list above?
So really, no one knows what's going to happen out of this mess, but
my bet would be that they'll find some way to "fudge," or to kick the
can down the road. Bloomberg (20-Dec) and Independent (Ireland) and Guardian (London, 17-Dec) and UK News (17-Dec)
****
**** Big upsurge in migrants crossing English Channel by boat, especially Iranians
****
A big increase in the number of migrants illegally crossing the
English Channel from Calais, France, to Dover, England, is being
blamed on the chaos surrounding Brexit. There are reports that human
traffickers are telling migrants that crossing from France to Britain
will be much more difficult after March 29 because of Brexit, and
charging the migrants €15,000 or more to cross the Channel in a
cheap dinghy. At the same time, security has been toughened around
ports and the Channel tunnel, and authorities have been cracking down
on migrants in northern France. However, there are still many more
migrants who cross to Britain by stowing away on trucks that travel
through the tunnel.
This is actually a fairly small number of migrants, but it's become a
major political issue in Britain. It's far smaller than the number of
migrants crossing the Mediterranean to Greece, where the EU border
force has been patrolling the waters. But political pressure has
forced Britain's Home Secretary to reassign to British patrol cutters
from the Mediterranean to the English Channel.
Many of the migrants are from Iran. This is believed to be the result
of a policy that Serbia implemented between August and October, 2017,
offering visa-free travel to people from Iran for 30 days. More than
40,000 Iranians visited Serbia, but it's believed as many as 12,000
didn't return home after 30 days, but instead moved through the
Schengen Zone to western Europe and, in particular, to Calais, France,
hoping to reach Britain.
The trip across the English Channel is 21 miles, but cross-currents
can make the trip much longer. The trip can be particularly dangerous
due to high seas and busy shipping lanes. If a British patrol boat
captures the migrants in British waters, then they're required to take
them to Britain; otherwise, the patrol boat can return them to France.
When a migrant reaches Britain, he's evaluated for eligibility for
asylum. Iranians are likely to be granted asylum because of Iran's
human rights record. For that reason, migrants from Iraq or Syria
often claim to be from Iran. Daily Mail and Guardian (London) and Deutsche Welle
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, Theresa May,
Ireland, Northern Ireland,
Dover, Calais, France, Iran, Serbia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Brexit chaos continues as Britain heads for March 29 cliff
- Big upsurge in migrants crossing English Channel by boat, especially Iranians
****
**** Brexit chaos continues as Britain heads for March 29 cliff
****
Migrants from France arriving in Dover, England, this week (SPLASH)
It's hard to overestimate what a political disaster Brexit has been
ever since the referendum passed on June 23, 2016. Britain, and to
some extent the EU, have been almost completely deadlocked for two
years with political lockjaw. And now, the committed date when
Britain will leave the European Union is March 29, 2019.
The problem has always been the border between Northern Ireland (which
is part of the UK) and (Southern) Ireland (which will remain part of
the EU). Ireland and Northern Ireland have an extremely violent
history described as "The Troubles," which were resolved by the Good
Friday agreement in 1998 which, among other things, committed to
remove any physical border between the two, and allow free movement of
goods and people. It's been apparent since the beginning that no
solution exists to meeting the objectives of the "Brexiteers" (the
people who wanted Brexit) and maintaining a barrier-free border. So
that problem has always been insoluble and remains so today.
So there are four possibilities for what will happen on March 29:
- "Crashing out of the EU" -- a no-deal Brexit.
- Prime minister Theresa May's plan
- Killing the whole Brexit thing.
- Kicking the can down the road by extending the March 29
date.
There is no UK majority for any of these options, but if there's no
agreement, then the default will be a no-deal Brexit. In my opinion a
way will be found to avoid this, because it will be catastrophic for
the economies of both the UK and EU.
I had thought that the Brexit decision was final, once Britain
submitted its two-year notice on March 29, 2017. However, in the last
few months, an EU court has issued an opinion that Britain can reverse
the Brexit decision, provided that it does so with finality, and not
just to start up a new two-year negotiation. So that's an option.
However, if Britain's government invokes it, it will invoke the howls
of hell from people who say that the government is violating the will
of the people.
Prime minister Theresa May's plan, which I summarized in detail
in October, is a transition plan that
many consider be the worst of all possible worlds. The whole point of
why the Brexiteers wanted Brexit was to get away from the EU
regulations, EU taxes, and the European Court of Justice (ECJ). In
the transition period, all of these will remain, with the additional
restriction that the UK will have to obey all the regulations and pay
all the money, but will have no say in changing them. This plan is
almost Karmic retribution for the idiocy of going ahead with Brexit in
the first place.
However, few people like Theresa May's plan, and many pundits say that
when it comes to a vote in Parliament on January 14, it's unlikely to
pass.
That brings us to the last option -- kicking the can down the road.
It's believed that if the UK requested it, then the EU would agree to
extend the March 29 date. That would give time for more debate.
Some people want to use that time to hold a new Brexit referendum.
The problem with that option is that even among the few people who
want a new referendum, there's no agreement on what the question would
be. Would it be the same two choices as the 2016 referendum? Or
would it be the three choices, something like the first three options
in the list above?
So really, no one knows what's going to happen out of this mess, but
my bet would be that they'll find some way to "fudge," or to kick the
can down the road. Bloomberg (20-Dec) and Independent (Ireland) and Guardian (London, 17-Dec) and UK News (17-Dec)
****
**** Big upsurge in migrants crossing English Channel by boat, especially Iranians
****
A big increase in the number of migrants illegally crossing the
English Channel from Calais, France, to Dover, England, is being
blamed on the chaos surrounding Brexit. There are reports that human
traffickers are telling migrants that crossing from France to Britain
will be much more difficult after March 29 because of Brexit, and
charging the migrants €15,000 or more to cross the Channel in a
cheap dinghy. At the same time, security has been toughened around
ports and the Channel tunnel, and authorities have been cracking down
on migrants in northern France. However, there are still many more
migrants who cross to Britain by stowing away on trucks that travel
through the tunnel.
This is actually a fairly small number of migrants, but it's become a
major political issue in Britain. It's far smaller than the number of
migrants crossing the Mediterranean to Greece, where the EU border
force has been patrolling the waters. But political pressure has
forced Britain's Home Secretary to reassign to British patrol cutters
from the Mediterranean to the English Channel.
Many of the migrants are from Iran. This is believed to be the result
of a policy that Serbia implemented between August and October, 2017,
offering visa-free travel to people from Iran for 30 days. More than
40,000 Iranians visited Serbia, but it's believed as many as 12,000
didn't return home after 30 days, but instead moved through the
Schengen Zone to western Europe and, in particular, to Calais, France,
hoping to reach Britain.
The trip across the English Channel is 21 miles, but cross-currents
can make the trip much longer. The trip can be particularly dangerous
due to high seas and busy shipping lanes. If a British patrol boat
captures the migrants in British waters, then they're required to take
them to Britain; otherwise, the patrol boat can return them to France.
When a migrant reaches Britain, he's evaluated for eligibility for
asylum. Iranians are likely to be granted asylum because of Iran's
human rights record. For that reason, migrants from Iraq or Syria
often claim to be from Iran. Daily Mail and Guardian (London) and Deutsche Welle
Related Articles:
- Brexit appears headed for worst of all possible worlds for UK (19-Oct-2018)
- Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit (02-Aug-2018)
- Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
- Migrants in Calais France hospitalized after violent clashes (03-Feb-2018)
- Britain and France renew 1904 Entente Cordiale with new military agreement (19-Jan-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, Theresa May,
Ireland, Northern Ireland,
Dover, Calais, France, Iran, Serbia
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
