01-09-2019, 11:50 PM
*** 10-Jan-19 World View -- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** US military focuses on China and 'Indo-Pacific' region
****
![[Image: g190109b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190109b.jpg)
Patrick Shanahan arrives at the Pentagon on Jan. 2, for his first day as acting Secretary of Defense. (DoD)
On his first day on the job, last week on January 2, the new Acting
Defence Secretary Patrick Shanahan, appointed in the wake of James
Mattis' resignation, told his first meeting with secretaries of the US
military branches that the department's focus should always be on
"China, China, China."
Word of Shanahan's statement was interpreted by the Chinese to mean
that they should expect further military "provocations" by the
Americans, such as Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOs) by
American warships in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait, or that
American was going to take steps to "prevent China narrowing the
China-US military gap."
In fact, the American military is focusing a lot more on what used to
be called the "Asia-Pacific" region, and is now called the
"Indo-Pacific region," which one Indian analyst colorfully described
as stretching from Hollywood to Bollywood.
In August of last year, vice president Pence attended an Indo-Pacific
strategy that included investments of $300 million investments for
technology, energy and infrastructure in the region. ( "5-Aug-18 World View -- China mocks America's 'Indo-Pacific' strategy at ASEAN meeting"
)
This announcement was ridiculed by the Chinese, who attended the same
meeting, because China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has committed
$900 billion (with a "b") to Asian countries, in contrast to America's
"paltry" commitment of $133 million (with an "m"). Reuters and Global Times (Beijing) and Breaking Defense
****
**** Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China
****
In December, Congress passed the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act
(ARIA), which president Trump signed on December 31. It called for
America's increased engagement in the Indo-Pacific region and
strengthened support, including arms sales, for U.S. allies in the
region.
ARIA is a good example of the U.S. Congress exercising oversight over
the Executive through authorizing expenditure for specific activities,
requiring annual reports on a number of security issues, and mandating
specific strategies to achieve U.S. objectives.
ARIA authorizes $1.5 billion annually for 5 years to enhance U.S.
presence in the Indo-Pacific. This is ten times greater than the $133
million that was announced in August at the ASEAN meeting, but it's
still much less than the $900 billion that China's Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), has committed to Asian countries.
ARIA recognizes the vital importance to the security of the United
States of treaty allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, the
Philippines, and Thailand), strategic partners (India), enhanced
security partnerships (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam),
and commitment to Taiwan. With respect to Taiwan, the Bill
significantly calls for the transfer of “defense articles” and
high-level official visits.
ARIA identifies three major security challenges to the “United
States-backed international system”:
In particular, ARIA says the following specifically about China:
ARIA expresses serious concern over the rule of law and civil
liberties in five countries – Cambodia, China, North Korea, Laos,
Thailand, and Vietnam. More significantly, ARIA highlights
“unacceptable human rights developments” in Myanmar (Burma), the
Philippines, and China. Diplomat and IndraStra Global (India) amd US Congress
****
**** China threatens retaliation if US implements ARIA in Taiwan
****
Last week, China's president Xi Jinping gave the military its first
order of 2019 - prepare for war:
<QUOTE>"All military units must correctly understand major
national security and development trends, and strengthen their
sense of unexpected hardship, crisis and battle.
[China's armed forces must] prepare for a comprehensive military
struggle from a new starting point.... Preparation for war and
combat must be deepened to ensure an efficient response in times
of emergency."<END QUOTE>
China's foreign ministry spokesman gave a specific answer to the
portion of the new ARIA law having to do with Taiwan:
<QUOTE>The above-mentioned Act seriously violates the
one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-US joint
communiques, and grossly interferes in China's internal
affairs. The Chinese side expresses strong dissatisfaction with
and resolute opposition to the US insisting on signing the Act
into law and has already made stern representations with the US.
I would like to remind the US side of the speech made by President
Xi Jinping at the 40th anniversary of issuing Message to
Compatriots in Taiwan. He stressed solemnly that the Taiwan
question belongs to China's internal affairs, concerns China's
core interests and the national bond of the Chinese people and
allows no interference from the outside.
We urge the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the
provisions of the three China-US joint communiques. The US must
not implement the relevant contents of the Act and should
carefully handle the Taiwan-related issues in a cautious manner so
as not to impair the overall situation of the China-US relations
and cross-Straits peace and stability."<END QUOTE>
Just as the United States laws and rhetoric are becoming increasingly
belligerent, China's are doing the same.
Today, in 2019, many nations of the world are deep into a generational
Crisis era. As I've been writing for years about country after
country, many countries of the world are becoming increasingly
nationalist and xenophobic, as the survivors of World War II have
almost completely disappeared. This is true today in North America,
Europe and Asia. And this is not an abstract concept. It has real
consequences in that the survivors of World War II were willing to
compromise, but the generations growing up after World War II are not.
So most countries today have become more willing to escalate small
crises into larger ones, and less willing to accept compromises to
prevent war. Even a simple misunderstanding today could trigger a
military response, resulting in a tit-for-tat escalation leading to
war. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and China's Foreign Ministry
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, ARIA,
Indo-Pacific region, Patrick Shanahan, South China Sea, Taiwan Strait,
China, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Mike Pence, Taiwan,
Xi Jinping
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- US military focuses on China and 'Indo-Pacific' region
- Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China
- China threatens retaliation if US implements ARIA in Taiwan
****
**** US military focuses on China and 'Indo-Pacific' region
****
Patrick Shanahan arrives at the Pentagon on Jan. 2, for his first day as acting Secretary of Defense. (DoD)
On his first day on the job, last week on January 2, the new Acting
Defence Secretary Patrick Shanahan, appointed in the wake of James
Mattis' resignation, told his first meeting with secretaries of the US
military branches that the department's focus should always be on
"China, China, China."
Word of Shanahan's statement was interpreted by the Chinese to mean
that they should expect further military "provocations" by the
Americans, such as Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOs) by
American warships in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait, or that
American was going to take steps to "prevent China narrowing the
China-US military gap."
In fact, the American military is focusing a lot more on what used to
be called the "Asia-Pacific" region, and is now called the
"Indo-Pacific region," which one Indian analyst colorfully described
as stretching from Hollywood to Bollywood.
In August of last year, vice president Pence attended an Indo-Pacific
strategy that included investments of $300 million investments for
technology, energy and infrastructure in the region. ( "5-Aug-18 World View -- China mocks America's 'Indo-Pacific' strategy at ASEAN meeting"
)
This announcement was ridiculed by the Chinese, who attended the same
meeting, because China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has committed
$900 billion (with a "b") to Asian countries, in contrast to America's
"paltry" commitment of $133 million (with an "m"). Reuters and Global Times (Beijing) and Breaking Defense
****
**** Trump signs Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), focusing US military on China
****
In December, Congress passed the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act
(ARIA), which president Trump signed on December 31. It called for
America's increased engagement in the Indo-Pacific region and
strengthened support, including arms sales, for U.S. allies in the
region.
ARIA is a good example of the U.S. Congress exercising oversight over
the Executive through authorizing expenditure for specific activities,
requiring annual reports on a number of security issues, and mandating
specific strategies to achieve U.S. objectives.
ARIA authorizes $1.5 billion annually for 5 years to enhance U.S.
presence in the Indo-Pacific. This is ten times greater than the $133
million that was announced in August at the ASEAN meeting, but it's
still much less than the $900 billion that China's Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), has committed to Asian countries.
ARIA recognizes the vital importance to the security of the United
States of treaty allies (Japan, South Korea, Australia, the
Philippines, and Thailand), strategic partners (India), enhanced
security partnerships (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam),
and commitment to Taiwan. With respect to Taiwan, the Bill
significantly calls for the transfer of “defense articles” and
high-level official visits.
ARIA identifies three major security challenges to the “United
States-backed international system”:
- China’s illegal construction and militarization of artificial
features in the South China Sea and coercive economic practices.
- North Korea’s acceleration of its nuclear and ballistic missiles
capabilities; and
- The increased presence throughout Southeast Asia of the Islamic
State... and other international terrorist organizations that threaten
the United States.
In particular, ARIA says the following specifically about China:
- expresses grave concerns over Chinese actions that seek – (a)
to further constrain space for civil society and religion within
China; and (b) undermine a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific
region.
- encourages China to play a constructive role in world affairs by
demonstrating consistent respect for the rule of law and international
norms;
- seeks to build a positive, cooperative, and comprehensive
relationship with China – (a) by expanding areas of cooperation; and
(b) by addressing areas of disagreement, including over human rights,
economic policies, and maritime security; and
- is committed to working with China on shared regional and global
challenges, especially – (a) upholding and strengthening the
rules-based international system; and (b) the denuclearization of
North Korea.
ARIA expresses serious concern over the rule of law and civil
liberties in five countries – Cambodia, China, North Korea, Laos,
Thailand, and Vietnam. More significantly, ARIA highlights
“unacceptable human rights developments” in Myanmar (Burma), the
Philippines, and China. Diplomat and IndraStra Global (India) amd US Congress
****
**** China threatens retaliation if US implements ARIA in Taiwan
****
Last week, China's president Xi Jinping gave the military its first
order of 2019 - prepare for war:
<QUOTE>"All military units must correctly understand major
national security and development trends, and strengthen their
sense of unexpected hardship, crisis and battle.
[China's armed forces must] prepare for a comprehensive military
struggle from a new starting point.... Preparation for war and
combat must be deepened to ensure an efficient response in times
of emergency."<END QUOTE>
China's foreign ministry spokesman gave a specific answer to the
portion of the new ARIA law having to do with Taiwan:
<QUOTE>The above-mentioned Act seriously violates the
one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-US joint
communiques, and grossly interferes in China's internal
affairs. The Chinese side expresses strong dissatisfaction with
and resolute opposition to the US insisting on signing the Act
into law and has already made stern representations with the US.
I would like to remind the US side of the speech made by President
Xi Jinping at the 40th anniversary of issuing Message to
Compatriots in Taiwan. He stressed solemnly that the Taiwan
question belongs to China's internal affairs, concerns China's
core interests and the national bond of the Chinese people and
allows no interference from the outside.
We urge the US side to abide by the one-China principle and the
provisions of the three China-US joint communiques. The US must
not implement the relevant contents of the Act and should
carefully handle the Taiwan-related issues in a cautious manner so
as not to impair the overall situation of the China-US relations
and cross-Straits peace and stability."<END QUOTE>
Just as the United States laws and rhetoric are becoming increasingly
belligerent, China's are doing the same.
Today, in 2019, many nations of the world are deep into a generational
Crisis era. As I've been writing for years about country after
country, many countries of the world are becoming increasingly
nationalist and xenophobic, as the survivors of World War II have
almost completely disappeared. This is true today in North America,
Europe and Asia. And this is not an abstract concept. It has real
consequences in that the survivors of World War II were willing to
compromise, but the generations growing up after World War II are not.
So most countries today have become more willing to escalate small
crises into larger ones, and less willing to accept compromises to
prevent war. Even a simple misunderstanding today could trigger a
military response, resulting in a tit-for-tat escalation leading to
war. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and China's Foreign Ministry
Related Articles
- China mocks America's 'Indo-Pacific' strategy at ASEAN meeting (05-Aug-2018)
- Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China (21-Oct-2018)
- Taiwan says that China is 'out of control' after El Salvador switches allegiance (22-Aug-2018)
- China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea (16-Dec-2017)
- China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan (17-May-2018)
- Trump administration approves selling submarine technology to Taiwan (08-Apr-2018)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, ARIA,
Indo-Pacific region, Patrick Shanahan, South China Sea, Taiwan Strait,
China, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Mike Pence, Taiwan,
Xi Jinping
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
