06-12-2019, 10:46 AM
** 12-Jun-2019 World View: Hong Kong protests an existential threat to CCP
When you're considering the question of what the CCP considers to be
an existential threat, then you can't apply reasoning that's anywhere
remotely rational. For example, the CCP considers the cartoon
character Winnie the Pooh to be an existential threat -- not because a
cartoon character is going to do anything, but because the cartoon
character can be used as a symbol around which there may be a massive
rebellion.
For example, the massive multi-year Taiping Rebellion was led by a guy
who believed that he was the son of the Christian God, a younger
brother to Jesus.
The Hong Kong demonstrations, per se, are no threat to the CCP.
But China's history is filled with small demonstrations that spread
and grew into huge rebellions. The CCP considers even a small "mass
event" anywhere in China as an existential threat.
The protests that led to the June 4, 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre
didn't just begin a day earlier. The protests began early in May in
commemoration of the huge protests on May 4, 1919, that launched the
"May 4th Movement." That movement also had to be crushed. By June 4,
1989, the CCP were convinced that the pro-democracy demonstrations
were going to spread and threaten them.
A small demonstration in Hong Kong could easily spread to cities in
the south. Mao's Long March began in the south. The Taiping
Rebellion began in the south. A new rebellion could start in the
south and, if not crushed immediately, could spread north to Beijing
and bring down the CCP.
----- Related:
World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2)
by John James Xenakis
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/
utahbob Wrote:> Not much will happen openly. I wonder how much infrastructure the
> Ministry of State Security (MSS) has in place to surveil the
> populace. Can they collect SIM or phone numbers from the cell
> phone system to start pattern analysis and identify key
> individuals to suppress future operations/opponents? It is not the
> PLA people should worry about, it is the People's Armed Police
> Force (PAP) and the MSS. There is supposedly no PAP in HK, but I
> wonder if they have advance party there conducting reconnaissance
> and preparations drills. It would take too long to move the PAP
> into HK with sufficient forces to do anything. The HK government
> will do what Beijing orders them to do or start disappearing
> people without consulting with anybody. Kind of going Argentina?
> The CPC will not do much since HK is separate and any protest
> there is not an existential threat to its legitimacy unlike
> Tiananmen Square.
When you're considering the question of what the CCP considers to be
an existential threat, then you can't apply reasoning that's anywhere
remotely rational. For example, the CCP considers the cartoon
character Winnie the Pooh to be an existential threat -- not because a
cartoon character is going to do anything, but because the cartoon
character can be used as a symbol around which there may be a massive
rebellion.
For example, the massive multi-year Taiping Rebellion was led by a guy
who believed that he was the son of the Christian God, a younger
brother to Jesus.
The Hong Kong demonstrations, per se, are no threat to the CCP.
But China's history is filled with small demonstrations that spread
and grew into huge rebellions. The CCP considers even a small "mass
event" anywhere in China as an existential threat.
The protests that led to the June 4, 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre
didn't just begin a day earlier. The protests began early in May in
commemoration of the huge protests on May 4, 1919, that launched the
"May 4th Movement." That movement also had to be crushed. By June 4,
1989, the CCP were convinced that the pro-democracy demonstrations
were going to spread and threaten them.
A small demonstration in Hong Kong could easily spread to cities in
the south. Mao's Long March began in the south. The Taiping
Rebellion began in the south. A new rebellion could start in the
south and, if not crushed immediately, could spread north to Beijing
and bring down the CCP.
----- Related:
World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2)
by John James Xenakis
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/
