Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 02-Jul-2019 North Korea denuclearization

(07-02-2019, 02:40 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I wonder if your point (1) is accurate. I think Kim was sincere
> about the outlines of his agreement with Trump and S. Korea.
> Let's recall that the agreement had two parts: there was opening
> of trade, which mutually benefited North and South Korea, and
> there was military deescalation, which included N. Korea giving up
> its nuclear weapons and the U.S. withdrawing its forces from South
> Korea.

> I think if all of this could be done at once, Kim would be willing
> to do it. It's just that Kim wants the economic trade first,
> because it's easier for him: it gives him a win to help him with
> internal support for the military trade, plus it stabilizes the
> situation so the temptation to invade once the US withdraws from
> S. Korea won't be too much to resist.

> The US wants the military trade first, since it's concerned that
> the military trade may never happen if the economic trade goes
> first. The situation is complicated by the fact that S. Korea
> wants the economic trade first. Kim overestimated the influence of
> S. Korea on the US, and thought that if he and S. Korea agreed to
> do the economic stuff first, the US would go along, which it would
> have under previous Presidents. I'm not sure he's going to do the
> military trade first. But again, if everyone else did all of
> their parts at the same time, he'd give up the nuclear weapons, so
> it's not that he won't give them up no matter what other people
> do.

I just don't see how that possible. Even if you assume hypothetically
that Kim himself would like to denuclearize, I believe that if he
tried, then his own army generals would shoot him dead, rather than
let that happen.

Even if they did go through with denuclearization, the entire country
would need decades to change its focus from militarization to
consumerism. So even if you assume that denuclearization somehow
occurs, then the follow-on would still be disastrous. And the North
still hasn't changed its plans to reunite Korea under Communist rule.

I've seen too much fanaticism in too many countries at too many times
in history to believe that North Korea has any chance of
denuclearization.

(07-02-2019, 02:40 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Incidentally, I bought your books on Iran and China and have
> skimmed them.

Thanks! I hope you enjoy them.

(07-02-2019, 02:40 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I'm still puzzled by your obvious concern about all the nuclear
> weapons China has that are primarily targeted at the US, but your
> lack of concern for the many more nuclear weapons Russia has that
> are primarily targeted at the US. I'd be interested in your
> analysis of Russia, as I believe you think their crisis occurred
> in the 1990s.

Russia's crisis has not yet occurred. We discussed this endlessly in
the old forum. The 1990s would have been a crisis era for Russia if
it hadn't been for the brutality of the Nazi invasion, which was an
Awakening era war. David Kaiser analyzed the situation in Russia and
said that the Nazi invasion had caused generational destruction
similar to a crisis war. This would be how a "first turning reset"
occurs.

As I've written many times, Russia, India and Iran will be American
allies in the next war. China plans to attack the US to prevent the
US from defending Japan and Taiwan, but Russia has no motivation to
attack the US. Russia is an existential threat to Ukraine, but not to
the US.

(07-02-2019, 02:40 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I'd also be interested in your analysis of why Germany entered
> WWII. As I recall, you believe that Europe had had a recent
> crisis war in the form of WWI, so how did European WWII become a
> crisis war? Did US involvement somehow turn it into a crisis war?
> Otherwise Chamberlain's peace would have happened, or what?

World War I was an Unraveling era war for Germany, and their behavior
was very similar to America's in the Vietnam war.

I discussed this at length in my first book:

** Book I - Chapter 3 -- The Principle of Localization I
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...ation1.htm

** Book I / Chapter 4 -- The Principle of Localization II
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...ation2.htm

Germany's war effort collapsed because of public anti-war activism,
same as America's Vietnam War.

I also wrote about it on Christmas day 2017:

** 25-Dec-17 World View -- Remembering the 1914 World War I Christmas Truce
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e171225