07-19-2019, 11:26 PM
** 20-Jul-2019 World View: Iran seizes UK-flagged oil tanker / Operation Sentinel
The news all day Friday was of the seizure by Iran's Revolutionary
Guards Corp (IRGC) of the a British-flagged oil tanker, the Stena
Impero.
However, there were no British crew members aboard. The 23 crew
members are of various nationalities, including India, Russia, Latvia,
India, and the Philippines.
Britain's Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who is also running for Prime
Minister, said, "These seizures are unacceptable."
The IRGC seized a second tanker, the Liberian-flagged Mesdar. IRGC
armed guards boarded the ship, but then let it go shortly thereafter.
This appears to be the latest in what some analysts are calling one
inept action after another. Before today, Iran has sabotaged 6
tankers and shot down an American drone. All of these actions might
be called "militarily safe," since they do not involve the death or
capture of American, British or European citizens. Instead, the
purpose of these childish actions is to convince European officials to
put pressure on the Trump administration to remove some sanctions.
But Iran has completely failed in that objective. Instead of now
pressuring the Trump administration to remove the sanctions, the
European officials are harshly condemning Iran, accusing Iran of
"destabilizing the Mideast", and are giving Donald Trump space to brag
about making the right decision to back out of the nuclear deal, and
to make statements like, "Iran is nothing but trouble."
In fact, Iran's actions have had the opposite effect, and caused
attitudes to harden. US Central command has issued two statements.
The first statement announces the movement of troops to Saudi Arabia,
for the first time in decades:
The number of troops was not specified, but it's believed that the
number will be 500.
The second statement proposes a multinational effort to protect ships
in the Strait of Hormuz from attacks by Iran:
Much of the debate on television on Friday was over the question of
whether there would be full-scale war between Iran and either the US
or the UK. In my opinion, the probability of such a war is extremely
low, since Iran is in a generational Awakening era, following the 1979
Islamic Revolution, and the younger postwar generations are extremely
hostile to the hardline geezers that survived the revolution.
---- Sources:
-- Iran / U.S. Central Command Statement on Operation Sentinel
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS...-sentinel/
(Centcom-mil, 19-Jul-2019)
-- U.S. Central Command Statement on movement of U.S. personnel to
Saudi Arabia
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS...di-arabia/
(Centcom-mil, 19-Jul-2019)
-- Iran's Revolutionary Guard seizes one UK-operated tanker in Strait
of Hormuz, briefly detains another
https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-uk-op...-of-hormuz
(FoxNews, 19-Jul-2019)
-- US moves forward on operation to counter Iran, begins sending
troops to Saudi Arabia
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/45398...s-to-saudi
(TheHill, 19-Jul-2019)
The news all day Friday was of the seizure by Iran's Revolutionary
Guards Corp (IRGC) of the a British-flagged oil tanker, the Stena
Impero.
However, there were no British crew members aboard. The 23 crew
members are of various nationalities, including India, Russia, Latvia,
India, and the Philippines.
Britain's Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who is also running for Prime
Minister, said, "These seizures are unacceptable."
The IRGC seized a second tanker, the Liberian-flagged Mesdar. IRGC
armed guards boarded the ship, but then let it go shortly thereafter.
This appears to be the latest in what some analysts are calling one
inept action after another. Before today, Iran has sabotaged 6
tankers and shot down an American drone. All of these actions might
be called "militarily safe," since they do not involve the death or
capture of American, British or European citizens. Instead, the
purpose of these childish actions is to convince European officials to
put pressure on the Trump administration to remove some sanctions.
But Iran has completely failed in that objective. Instead of now
pressuring the Trump administration to remove the sanctions, the
European officials are harshly condemning Iran, accusing Iran of
"destabilizing the Mideast", and are giving Donald Trump space to brag
about making the right decision to back out of the nuclear deal, and
to make statements like, "Iran is nothing but trouble."
In fact, Iran's actions have had the opposite effect, and caused
attitudes to harden. US Central command has issued two statements.
The first statement announces the movement of troops to Saudi Arabia,
for the first time in decades:
Quote: "In coordination with and at the invitation of the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Secretary of Defense has authorized
the movement of U.S. personnel and resources to deploy to Saudi
Arabia. This movement of forces provides an additional deterrent,
and ensures our ability to defend our forces and interests in the
region from emergent, credible threats. This movement creates
improvement of operational depth and logistical
networks. U.S. Central Command continually assesses force posture
in the region and is working with Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
authorities to base U.S. assets at the appropriate
locations."
The number of troops was not specified, but it's believed that the
number will be 500.
The second statement proposes a multinational effort to protect ships
in the Strait of Hormuz from attacks by Iran:
Quote: "U.S. Central Command is developing a multinational
maritime effort, Operation Sentinel, to increase surveillance of
and security in key waterways in the Middle East to ensure freedom
of navigation in light of recent events in the Arabian Gulf
region.
The goal of Operation Sentinel is to promote maritime stability,
ensure safe passage, and de-escalate tensions in international
waters throughout the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, the Bab
el-Mandeb Strait (BAM) and the Gulf of Oman.
This maritime security framework will enable nations to provide
escort to their flagged vessels while taking advantage of the
cooperation of participating nations for coordination and enhanced
maritime domain awareness and surveillance.
While the United States has committed to supporting this
initiative, contributions and leadership from regional and
international partners will be required to succeed.
U.S. officials continue to coordinate with allies and partners in
Europe, Asia, and the Middle East on the details and capabilities
required for Operation Sentinel to enable freedom of navigation in
the region and protect vital shipping lanes."
Much of the debate on television on Friday was over the question of
whether there would be full-scale war between Iran and either the US
or the UK. In my opinion, the probability of such a war is extremely
low, since Iran is in a generational Awakening era, following the 1979
Islamic Revolution, and the younger postwar generations are extremely
hostile to the hardline geezers that survived the revolution.
---- Sources:
-- Iran / U.S. Central Command Statement on Operation Sentinel
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS...-sentinel/
(Centcom-mil, 19-Jul-2019)
-- U.S. Central Command Statement on movement of U.S. personnel to
Saudi Arabia
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/STATEMENTS...di-arabia/
(Centcom-mil, 19-Jul-2019)
-- Iran's Revolutionary Guard seizes one UK-operated tanker in Strait
of Hormuz, briefly detains another
https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-uk-op...-of-hormuz
(FoxNews, 19-Jul-2019)
-- US moves forward on operation to counter Iran, begins sending
troops to Saudi Arabia
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/45398...s-to-saudi
(TheHill, 19-Jul-2019)
