07-25-2019, 07:23 PM
(07-25-2019, 01:03 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Which leads me to ask: Why is this even an issue for you?
I don't know about him, but I find it an issue when I'm replying to one of your posts. In particular, the use of '>' for quoting can mess things up. I do agree that shorter lines are more legible; I just prefer for the reader to be able to adjust to his preferred line length.
Quote:However, Howe and Kaiser extended the delusions one step further.
Kaiser completely adopted Obama's delusions, but extended the delusion
to the view that Obama's delusional policies would bring about major
social changes, and this would be the Fourth Turning crisis that their
1990s book predicted. That's about as delusional as you can get, but
it's what they believed.
This led to what is essentially an amendment to the 1990s TFT theory.
In the 1990s theory, the three previous crisis eras featured full-scale
wars -- the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and World War II -- and
so there would be a new war in the 2005-2025 time frame that America
might not survive.
Which book was that in? I've only read Generations. I've tried to read The Fourth Turning, but I ended up concluding that Strauss was the real brains of the original pair.
That said, even Generations wimped out in claiming that the Great Depression was the crisis, and kind of glossed over WWII, so part of this was a failing of the original theory.
Quote:I wrote a whole book on this subject, based on thousand of hours of
research. China has no interest in a war with the US, and yet they've
been preparing for it by developing one weapon system after another
with no purpose except to destroy American cities, aircraft carries
and bases. They don't want a war with the US, but they do want a war
of revenge with Japan, and a war of annexation with Taiwan, and they
know that the US will defend Japan and Taiwan.
Maybe. Or maybe after continued escalation of the current spat, there will be a war between South Korea and Japan and China and Taiwan will intervene on the side of South Korea. The the US will be forced to choose between to "unsinkable aircraft carriers". We might still choose Japan, though your own arguments about how crisis wars tend to break along the same lines as the previous crisis suggests that's not the only possibility.
Or maybe Hard Brexit happens and things blow up between England and the EU over North Sea oil first, and then we get to go to war with Germany again, which would be right in line with your theory.
