08-30-2019, 10:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-31-2019, 01:34 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm Turkey border post
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Idlib Syria civilians push into Turkey
****
![[Image: g190830b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g190830b.jpg)
Displaced Syrians are stopped trying to cross the border into Turkey (AFP)
Hundreds of civilians in Syria's Idlib province on Friday tried to
push across the border into Turkey.
As the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia's
army and air force, has been pushing farther into Idlib province, tens
of thousands of additional civilians are being forced to flee their
homes, and are moving northwest to the border with Turkey.
There are three million civilians in Idlib, including hundreds of
thousands of displaced people living in refugee camps in the
northwest. About 70,000 people in Idlib are anti-Assad rebels, but
al-Assad has declared all three million people to be "terrorists," and
he's made it clear repeatedly that he plans to exterminate them like
cockroaches.
United Nations officials continue to express alarm at the continued
attacks by al-Assad, and are fearing a major humanitarian disaster, as
they try to flee into Turkey and are blocked. Turkey, which already
hosts 3.5 million Syrians who fled al-Assad's violence since 2011,
does not wish to have to host possibly a million more. Germany and
other European countries are trying to pressure Turkey and Russia to
bring al-Assad to heel, out of fear of another wave of Syrian refugees
pouring across the border into Europe.
****
**** Russia declares a farcical ceasefire
****
With hundreds of Syrians pushing across the border into Turkey on
Friday, we may be seeing the beginning of large wave of thousands of
displaced people, with resulting alarm in Turkey and Europe.
So Russia took hard-hitting action on Friday by declaring a
"unilateral ceasefire," starting on Saturday morning.
There has been one farcical ceasefire after another in the last eight
years. As usual, Bashar al-Assad didn't agree to the ceasefire, and
the anti-Assad rebels didn't agree to the ceasefire.
Historically, al-Assad has always made a mockery of these ceasefires,
and this one is sure to be no different.
****
**** Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend
****
Israel raised tensions in the Mideast last weekend by attacking
Iranian assets in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
According to Israeli sources, the attacks in Iraq and Syria were
airstrikes against components of precision guided missiles being
transported from Iran to Lebanon for use by Hezbollah against Israel.
Starting in 2012, Iran tried by failed to bring precision guided
missiles into Lebanon, but Israeli airstrikes destroyed the missiles
in transit each time. For the last three years, Iran has been tring
to bring components into Lebanon, to be assembled into missiles there.
The airstrikes in Iraq and Syria was targeting the components,
according to Israeli sources.
The situation in Lebanon was a little different. Israel did not
launch airstrikes into Lebanon. Instead, Israel sent two unmanned
drones into Lebanon to crash into targets in Beirut, Lebanon's capital
city.
At first it appeared that the drones had been shot down by Hezbollah.
Then it was reported that the drones were targeting guided missile
comnponents, same as the Iraq and Syria airstrikes.
However Debka, an analyst service based on Israeli military and
intelligence sources, but which sometimes gets things wrong, is
reporting that the drone strikes into Beirut were actually a targeted
assassination, targeting Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani,
who is the Iranian commander that Hezbollah's chief Sayyed Hasan
Nasrallah reports to. According to the report, the first of the two
drones was unarmed on a reconnaissance mission to track the movements
of Soleimani, but crash landed when a boy threw a rock at it. The the
second drone was to kill Soleimani. Although the second drone did hit
a car and explode, it did not kill Soleimani.
Soleimani called the attack "insane." Hezbollah has threatened
retaliation.
There are concerns that last weekends multiple attacks were a first
step in a new war by Israel against Iran and Hezbollah. This weekend,
Israeli troops are on high alert near the Lebanon border.
****
**** Mainland China troops poised to crush Hong Kong protesters
****
Pro-democracy protesters had planned a large public protest on
Saturday evening (Saturday morning ET), possibly as large as the
protest last month with two million protesters, 25% of the population.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing did the following:
The organizers of the pro-democracy protests called off Saturday's
protests, saying that they couldn't guarantee the safety of the
demonstrators
However, a Fox News Hong Kong correspondent (Jonathan Hunt) said that
he has just interviewed some of the extremists ("in an undisclosed
location") and they're saying the following:
The question always is: How long will the CCP allow this to go on.
There's effectively a hard deadline of October 1, the 70th anniversary
of the founding of Communist China, and it's believed that the
protests must be "settled or crushed" by October 1.
You can always count on the CCP to do the stupidest, most incompetent,
and most self-destructive thing, so the logic of the situation
requires a Tiananmen Square type intervention within the next month,
in time for Hong Kong to be out of the news by October 1. That
suggests that the deadline for action is pretty close.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Turkey, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Iran, Hezbollah, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Shia Crescent, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, Qassem Soleimani,
China, Hong Kong, Chinese Communist Party, CCP
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Idlib Syria civilians push into Turkey
- Russia declares a farcical ceasefire
- Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend
- Mainland China troops poised to crush Hong Kong protesters
****
**** Idlib Syria civilians push into Turkey
****
Displaced Syrians are stopped trying to cross the border into Turkey (AFP)
Hundreds of civilians in Syria's Idlib province on Friday tried to
push across the border into Turkey.
As the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia's
army and air force, has been pushing farther into Idlib province, tens
of thousands of additional civilians are being forced to flee their
homes, and are moving northwest to the border with Turkey.
There are three million civilians in Idlib, including hundreds of
thousands of displaced people living in refugee camps in the
northwest. About 70,000 people in Idlib are anti-Assad rebels, but
al-Assad has declared all three million people to be "terrorists," and
he's made it clear repeatedly that he plans to exterminate them like
cockroaches.
United Nations officials continue to express alarm at the continued
attacks by al-Assad, and are fearing a major humanitarian disaster, as
they try to flee into Turkey and are blocked. Turkey, which already
hosts 3.5 million Syrians who fled al-Assad's violence since 2011,
does not wish to have to host possibly a million more. Germany and
other European countries are trying to pressure Turkey and Russia to
bring al-Assad to heel, out of fear of another wave of Syrian refugees
pouring across the border into Europe.
****
**** Russia declares a farcical ceasefire
****
With hundreds of Syrians pushing across the border into Turkey on
Friday, we may be seeing the beginning of large wave of thousands of
displaced people, with resulting alarm in Turkey and Europe.
So Russia took hard-hitting action on Friday by declaring a
"unilateral ceasefire," starting on Saturday morning.
There has been one farcical ceasefire after another in the last eight
years. As usual, Bashar al-Assad didn't agree to the ceasefire, and
the anti-Assad rebels didn't agree to the ceasefire.
Historically, al-Assad has always made a mockery of these ceasefires,
and this one is sure to be no different.
****
**** Israel bombs Lebanon, Syria and Iraq all in one weekend
****
Israel raised tensions in the Mideast last weekend by attacking
Iranian assets in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
According to Israeli sources, the attacks in Iraq and Syria were
airstrikes against components of precision guided missiles being
transported from Iran to Lebanon for use by Hezbollah against Israel.
Starting in 2012, Iran tried by failed to bring precision guided
missiles into Lebanon, but Israeli airstrikes destroyed the missiles
in transit each time. For the last three years, Iran has been tring
to bring components into Lebanon, to be assembled into missiles there.
The airstrikes in Iraq and Syria was targeting the components,
according to Israeli sources.
The situation in Lebanon was a little different. Israel did not
launch airstrikes into Lebanon. Instead, Israel sent two unmanned
drones into Lebanon to crash into targets in Beirut, Lebanon's capital
city.
At first it appeared that the drones had been shot down by Hezbollah.
Then it was reported that the drones were targeting guided missile
comnponents, same as the Iraq and Syria airstrikes.
However Debka, an analyst service based on Israeli military and
intelligence sources, but which sometimes gets things wrong, is
reporting that the drone strikes into Beirut were actually a targeted
assassination, targeting Iran’s Al Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani,
who is the Iranian commander that Hezbollah's chief Sayyed Hasan
Nasrallah reports to. According to the report, the first of the two
drones was unarmed on a reconnaissance mission to track the movements
of Soleimani, but crash landed when a boy threw a rock at it. The the
second drone was to kill Soleimani. Although the second drone did hit
a car and explode, it did not kill Soleimani.
Soleimani called the attack "insane." Hezbollah has threatened
retaliation.
There are concerns that last weekends multiple attacks were a first
step in a new war by Israel against Iran and Hezbollah. This weekend,
Israeli troops are on high alert near the Lebanon border.
****
**** Mainland China troops poised to crush Hong Kong protesters
****
Pro-democracy protesters had planned a large public protest on
Saturday evening (Saturday morning ET), possibly as large as the
protest last month with two million protesters, 25% of the population.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing did the following:
- Arrested some protest leaders
- Declared that Saturday's protest is illegal
- Rotated out the troops that have been occupying barracks in Hong
Kong for years, and is now replacing them with riot troops and riot
vehicles.
- Told people to stay at home on Saturday evening
The organizers of the pro-democracy protests called off Saturday's
protests, saying that they couldn't guarantee the safety of the
demonstrators
However, a Fox News Hong Kong correspondent (Jonathan Hunt) said that
he has just interviewed some of the extremists ("in an undisclosed
location") and they're saying the following:
- The peaceful protesters will stay at home
- The CCP's actions have energized the extremist protesters
- Extremist protesters will be out on Saturday evening, with
confrontational protests and probably violence
The question always is: How long will the CCP allow this to go on.
There's effectively a hard deadline of October 1, the 70th anniversary
of the founding of Communist China, and it's believed that the
protests must be "settled or crushed" by October 1.
You can always count on the CCP to do the stupidest, most incompetent,
and most self-destructive thing, so the logic of the situation
requires a Tiananmen Square type intervention within the next month,
in time for Hong Kong to be out of the news by October 1. That
suggests that the deadline for action is pretty close.
Sources:
- Turkish military convoy headed to Khan Sheikhoun targeted in Idlib by Syria regime bombing (DailySabah, 19-Aug-2019)
- Desperate Syrians storm Turkish border post in protest over Assad offensive (Independent-uk, 30-Aug-2019)
- Russia declares 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm border post (AlJaz, 30-Aug-2019)
- Lebanon's President Aoun likens Israeli drones to 'declaration of war' (Reuters, 26-Aug-2019)
- Israel in counter-terror mode: Beirut drone attack was targeted assassination. Strikes on Lebanese Beqaa. Drone hits PMU convoy (Debka, 26-Aug-2019)
- Israel to Hizballah: A crushing Israeli response will come – even for a “limited reprisal” (Debka, 28-Aug-2019)
Related Articles:
- Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Turkish military convoy (23-Aug-2019)
- Syria war may be fizzling, as al-Assad 'hits a wall' in Idlib (12-Jul-2019)
- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria (01-Dec-2018)
- As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy (05-Oct-2018)
- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China (22-Jun-2019)
- UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots (04-Jul-2019)
- US-China trade war seriously disrupts world trade (16-Aug-2019)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Turkey, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Iran, Hezbollah, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Shia Crescent, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel, Qassem Soleimani,
China, Hong Kong, Chinese Communist Party, CCP
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
