09-01-2019, 10:12 AM
** 01-Sep-2019 World View: Russia Turkey
Turkey is so centrally located, almost at the center of the
geopolitical world, that there are no simple analyses.
A generational crisis war is a threat to a country's existence and its
way of life. The choice of allies and enemies at such a time is not
an ephemeral political decision, but is based on core values and
relationships that have developed over centuries. The easiest way to
predict a country's choice of allies and enemies is to look at its
choices of allies and enemies over previous crisis wars for centuries.
Now, applying that test to Turkey, if we look back to the last
two crisis wars -- World War I and the Crimean War -- we see that
Turkey has had mixed relations with Nato countries and with Arab
countries, but has always had Russia as an enemy.
Russia and China have been enemies to their core, so they're
going to be enemies. So Russia will be fighting both
Turkey and China.
It's often true that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," but not
entirely. Turkey has had deep historic relations with the Turkic
groups in Central Asia, including the Uighurs in East Turkistan
(China's Xinjiang province). So it's possible that Turkey and China
will cooperate against Russia, but will end up fighting each other in
Central Asia.
Turkey's relation with the Arab world is similarly confusing. The
Ottomans had Arab allies and enemies during the period of its
collapse, and the enmities are becoming exposed again in the last
three years with the vicious split between Saudi Arabia + UAE +
Bahrain + Egypt vs Qatar and Iran, with Turkey siding with Qatar.
There's a lot going on here that requires a deep analysis of Arab
relations for at least a couple of centuries, but I don't have time to
do it.
---- Source:
-- Uighurs / Will Turkey and China Become Friends?
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/poli...me-friends
(WashingtonInstitute, 14-Aug-2019)
---- Related:
** 31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm Turkey border post
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190831
** 23-Aug-19 World View -- Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Turkish military convoy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190823
** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151125
Guest Wrote:> How much longer is Turkey going to keep playing along with the
> Russians? The Russian air defense missile system has derailed
> their relationship with Nato, and despite your predictions, the
> Turks are becoming highly anti-Chinese. The Turks may find
> themselves alone.
Turkey is so centrally located, almost at the center of the
geopolitical world, that there are no simple analyses.
A generational crisis war is a threat to a country's existence and its
way of life. The choice of allies and enemies at such a time is not
an ephemeral political decision, but is based on core values and
relationships that have developed over centuries. The easiest way to
predict a country's choice of allies and enemies is to look at its
choices of allies and enemies over previous crisis wars for centuries.
Now, applying that test to Turkey, if we look back to the last
two crisis wars -- World War I and the Crimean War -- we see that
Turkey has had mixed relations with Nato countries and with Arab
countries, but has always had Russia as an enemy.
Russia and China have been enemies to their core, so they're
going to be enemies. So Russia will be fighting both
Turkey and China.
It's often true that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," but not
entirely. Turkey has had deep historic relations with the Turkic
groups in Central Asia, including the Uighurs in East Turkistan
(China's Xinjiang province). So it's possible that Turkey and China
will cooperate against Russia, but will end up fighting each other in
Central Asia.
Turkey's relation with the Arab world is similarly confusing. The
Ottomans had Arab allies and enemies during the period of its
collapse, and the enmities are becoming exposed again in the last
three years with the vicious split between Saudi Arabia + UAE +
Bahrain + Egypt vs Qatar and Iran, with Turkey siding with Qatar.
There's a lot going on here that requires a deep analysis of Arab
relations for at least a couple of centuries, but I don't have time to
do it.
---- Source:
-- Uighurs / Will Turkey and China Become Friends?
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/poli...me-friends
(WashingtonInstitute, 14-Aug-2019)
---- Related:
** 31-Aug-19 World View -- Russia declares farcical 'ceasefire' as Syrians try to storm Turkey border post
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190831
** 23-Aug-19 World View -- Syria regime wins major victory in Idilb, after attacking Turkish military convoy
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190823
** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151125
