09-17-2019, 11:11 AM
** 17-Sep-2019 World View: Waiting for Trump's response to Iran's attack on Saudi oil infrastructure
![[Image: Abqaiq-Impact-17-Points-14.9.19.jpg]](https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/debka/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/16232429/Abqaiq-Impact-17-Points-14.9.19.jpg)
Sunday's attack on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure caused oil prices
to spike 12%, the largest one-day increase in history. However,
prices have retreated slightly, especially after Saudi's announcement
that most of the oil production would be restored within a few days.
If true, the Saudis are being lauded for the resilience they've built
in to the oil infrastructure.
It's pretty much universally believed that Iran was the perpetrator,
and that the attack was launched by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps
(IRGC). Iran denies responsibity for the attack, but it's generally
believed that Iran is responsible, and this is the sixth attack on
Saudi oil facilities in the last four months.
Iran's denials are being disregarded. The claim by the Iran-sponsored
Yemeni Houthis that they launched the attack from Yemen is being
disregarded, and is viewed as an attempt to shield Iran from blame.
According to Debka, and confirmed by other reports, the coordinated
attack was extremely sophisticated. US and Saudi intelligence
officials referenced by Debka have concluded that 12 low-flying cruise
missiles were launched from Khuzestan in southern Iran, and 5 drones
were launched from Anbar province in western Iraq.
Even if the Saudis recovered quickly from Sunday's attack, there are
concerns that Iran will simply make more attacks. It's believed that
Iran's strategy is to cause oil shortages and push the price of oil
above $100 a barrel, so that America will be forced to reduce the
sanctions preventing Iran from selling oil. It's believed that Iran
will avoid American targets, since doing so would cause an immediate
military response.
Therefore, it's believed that Donald Trump has asked the military to
provide a list of options of possible responses. These options would
include diplomacy (the United Nations Security Council), cyber attacks
(to cripple Iran's intelligence cabilities), and special forces or
missiles to proportionally attack Iran's oil production facilities.
Analysts I've heard seem unanimous in saying that there must be some
response, or else Iran will simply launch more and more attacks, until
there is a response.
Many analysts are seeing a broader picture: This is a "new world" or
"new normal," where anyone can attack anyone with drones or cruise
missiles. This could result in a worldwide oil disruption. The
United States has become energy self-sufficient in the last two years,
but a worldwide oil disruption would particularly impact Asian
economies, which are highly dependent on Mideast oil.
---- Sources:
-- Exclusive: Iran shot missiles from Khuzestan, drones from W. Iraq
at Saudi oil facilities
https://www.debka.com/exclusive-iran-sho...acilities/
(Debka, 16-Sep-2019)
-- Detailed satellite photos show extent of 'surgical' attack damage
to Saudi Aramco oil facilities
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/satellit...lants.html
(CNBC, 17-Sep-2019)
-- U.S. official says drone and missile attack on Saudi Arabia was
launched from Iran
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-saudi-...territory/
(CBS News, 17-Sep-2019)
- According to Debka, the attacks on the Saudi oil
infrastructure used 17 missiles and drones, launched from southern
Iran and western Iraq, with 12 direct hits
Sunday's attack on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure caused oil prices
to spike 12%, the largest one-day increase in history. However,
prices have retreated slightly, especially after Saudi's announcement
that most of the oil production would be restored within a few days.
If true, the Saudis are being lauded for the resilience they've built
in to the oil infrastructure.
It's pretty much universally believed that Iran was the perpetrator,
and that the attack was launched by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps
(IRGC). Iran denies responsibity for the attack, but it's generally
believed that Iran is responsible, and this is the sixth attack on
Saudi oil facilities in the last four months.
Iran's denials are being disregarded. The claim by the Iran-sponsored
Yemeni Houthis that they launched the attack from Yemen is being
disregarded, and is viewed as an attempt to shield Iran from blame.
According to Debka, and confirmed by other reports, the coordinated
attack was extremely sophisticated. US and Saudi intelligence
officials referenced by Debka have concluded that 12 low-flying cruise
missiles were launched from Khuzestan in southern Iran, and 5 drones
were launched from Anbar province in western Iraq.
Even if the Saudis recovered quickly from Sunday's attack, there are
concerns that Iran will simply make more attacks. It's believed that
Iran's strategy is to cause oil shortages and push the price of oil
above $100 a barrel, so that America will be forced to reduce the
sanctions preventing Iran from selling oil. It's believed that Iran
will avoid American targets, since doing so would cause an immediate
military response.
Therefore, it's believed that Donald Trump has asked the military to
provide a list of options of possible responses. These options would
include diplomacy (the United Nations Security Council), cyber attacks
(to cripple Iran's intelligence cabilities), and special forces or
missiles to proportionally attack Iran's oil production facilities.
Analysts I've heard seem unanimous in saying that there must be some
response, or else Iran will simply launch more and more attacks, until
there is a response.
Many analysts are seeing a broader picture: This is a "new world" or
"new normal," where anyone can attack anyone with drones or cruise
missiles. This could result in a worldwide oil disruption. The
United States has become energy self-sufficient in the last two years,
but a worldwide oil disruption would particularly impact Asian
economies, which are highly dependent on Mideast oil.
---- Sources:
-- Exclusive: Iran shot missiles from Khuzestan, drones from W. Iraq
at Saudi oil facilities
https://www.debka.com/exclusive-iran-sho...acilities/
(Debka, 16-Sep-2019)
-- Detailed satellite photos show extent of 'surgical' attack damage
to Saudi Aramco oil facilities
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/satellit...lants.html
(CNBC, 17-Sep-2019)
-- U.S. official says drone and missile attack on Saudi Arabia was
launched from Iran
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-saudi-...territory/
(CBS News, 17-Sep-2019)
