10-03-2019, 09:35 AM
(10-03-2019, 07:24 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 03-Oct-2019 World View: Gloomy October
After the Dow Jones Industrial Average has sold off 800+ points in the
last two days, stock futures have gone negative in the last hour, this
morning (Thursday).
Major market crashes in the past have occurred during the month of
October, and there is speculation that this will be another such
October. It's worth pointing out that the same speculation occurs
almost every October, and the speculation fizzles by mid-October.
This year, such speculation refers to the global economic slowing,
with China and Germany leading the way. In addition, there's no end
in sight for US-China trade disputes, or for Japan-South Korea trade
disputes. For China, there's no end in sight to the Hong Kong riots.
These factors are causing many companies to move their supply chains
out of China and into other countries like Vietnam, and to move their
money out of Hong Kong into Singapore. Such actions may be beneficial
in the long run, but in the short run they're adding to concerns that
this will be a gloomy October.
---- Sources:
** Why Does the Stock Market Go Lower in October?
** https://finance.zacks.com/stock-market-l...-6428.html
** Stocks just delivered a reminder about October’s reputation for
volatility
** https://www.marketwatch.com/story/histor...2019-10-01
1. In the past, September and October were the times in which many investors were selling out to get the funds to send their kids to expensive private schools and the first-rate colleges that were then strictly preserves for the sorts of people who owned securities. Selling off securities is one way in which to get ready cash.
2. Psychic mood? The days are shortening, which affects people with mood disorders relating to the day-night divide. Even if temperatures do not drop off precipitously, the chill of autumn enters the air. Summer fun is over, and autumn doesn;t have good substitutes.
To be sure, there are places, typically in the southern tier of the US, in which the weather of early autumn is much more pleasant than is summer weather -- but that is not how things used to be before millions migrated to Arizona, Texas, Florida, and southern California.
3. Hurricanes. September and October are peak hurricane seasons, and a really-bad hurricane season can compel lenders to write off huge volumes of real-estate loans.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
