10-07-2019, 10:01 PM
*** 8-Oct-19 World View -- Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone'
****
![[Image: g191007b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g191007b.jpg)
Map showing the buffer zone or safe zone in Syria (Anadolu)
For over a year, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been
demanding to invade Syria and set up a "safe zone" or "buffer zone," a
strip of land 20 miles wide in northern Syria, along the border with
Turkey. The plans have always been blocked by president Donald Trump
and by the presence of American troops in the region, which would mean
that an invasion by Turkish troops would result in a military clash
between two members of Nato.
Erdogan's objectives in setting up the buffer zone include the
following:
Erdogan has wanted to put this plan into effect for over a year, but
was prevented from doing so by the Trump and the United States.
However, in the last couple of months, Erdogan has evidently told
Trump that Turkey will go ahead with the invasion whether American
troops are present or not.
****
**** Donald Trump announces troop withdrawal from Syria
****
When President Trump last year announced his intention to withdraw US
troops from northeast Syria, it drew many protests, and was given as
the reason for the resignation of James Mattis as Defense Secretary.
The protests accused Trump of leaving the Kurds to the mercy of Turkey
and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who views all Kurds as
terrorists. However, it was the Kurds, with the help of American
airstrikes, who defeated ISIS and ejected them from their caliphate in
Raqqa. The Kurds claim that the Americans promised to stay and
protect them from Turkey, but the Americans claim that no such promise
was made. The Kurds are now saying that they've been betrayed and
"stabbed in the back."
Trump delayed the withdrawal because of the huge controversy, but now
has has issued the following statement:
<QUOTE>"The Kurds fought with us, but were paid massive
amounts of money and equipment to do so. They have been fighting
Turkey for decades. I held off this fight for ... almost 3 years,
but it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars,
many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home. WE WILL FIGHT
WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN."<END QUOTE>
Trump's statement follows a meeting last week with Erdogan, and a
phone call of Sunday with Erdogan. Erdogan threatened to begin a
military invasion of Syria whether the US troops were there or not,
and the withdrawal of American troops prevents a confrontation with
Turkish troops.
****
**** Turkey commits to responsibility for captured ISIS fighters
****
![[Image: g191007c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g191007c.jpg)
Erdogan and Trump meet in June
Another issue is that the successful Kurdish fight against ISIS
resulted in tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners. These ISIS fighters
originally came from other countries, especially European countries,
to join ISIS. As part of the current agreement, Turkey will take
responsibility for all the ISIS fighters held as prisoners.
A White House statement said:
<QUOTE>"The United States Government has pressed France,
Germany, and other European nations, from which many captured ISIS
fighters came, to take them back, but they did not want them and
refused. The United States will not hold them for what could be
many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer. Turkey
will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured
over the past two years."<END QUOTE>
Trump tweeted:
<QUOTE>"When I arrived in Washington, ISIS was running
rampant in the area. We quickly defeated 100% of the ISIS
Caliphate, ... including capturing thousands of ISIS fighters,
mostly from Europe.
But Europe did not want them back, they said you keep them USA! I
said 'NO, we did you a great favor and now you want us to hold
them in U.S. prisons at tremendous cost. They are yours for
trials.' They ... again said 'NO,' thinking, as usual, that the
U.S. is always the 'sucker,' on NATO, on Trade, on
everything."<END QUOTE>
South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who almost always
supports Trump, opposed Trump's withdrawal decision.
<QUOTE>"The biggest lie being told by the administration [is]
that ISIS is defeated. This impulsive decision by the president
has undone all the gains we've made, thrown the region into
further chaos. ... I hope I'm making myself clear how shortsighted
and irresponsible this decision is in my view."<END QUOTE>
Senator Marco Rubio joined Graham and other Republican senators in
criticizing Trump's decision.
****
**** The Washington debate over a bloodbath in Syria
****
There is a very passionate debate going on in Washington over this
decision, and it's a relief that it's a real debate, not like the
impeachment crap.
Some of the criticism is motivated by hatred of Trump by people who
don't have a clue who the Kurds are. In some cases, people opposing
the withdrawal of troops fighting jihadists in Syria are the same
people who, twelve years ago, demanded the withdrawal of troops
fighting jihadists in Iraq, because they hated George Bush.
Those who sincerely oppose the decision to withdraw have several
reasons.
One reason is that they fear a bloodbath as Turkish forces invade
villages occupied by Kurds and their families in northease Syria.
Erdogan has said that this fear is unjustified, as Turkish forces have
already taken control of of al-Bab and Jarabulus in midwestern Syria,
and there was no Kurdish bloodbath.
Another reason is the loss of American credibility from betraying our
allies, the Kurds. America also abandoned the Kurds in Iraq when they
were attacked by Saddam Hussein.
One of the biggest reasons for concern is the possible resurgence of
ISIS. Although the ISIS Caliphate in Raqqa has been eliminated, there
are still about 10,000 ISIS fighters being held by the Kurds in a
prison camp in the desert, along with tens of thousands of their
family members. The ISIS fighters are still being funded, and in the
chaos of a clash between Turkish and Kurdish forces, they could
regroup and recapture territory.
On Monday, Donald Trump gave the reasons for the withdrawal in several
press conferences on Monday.
He pointed out that it was only small pullout. He said that only a
few dozen soldiers are being pulled back from observation posts in a
region on the border where Turkey will be entering Syria. It's
believed that further pullouts will follow later.
Trump also said that he didn't want American troops to be in Syria for
ever, and he asked if we can't withdraw troops now, then when can we?
Trump said that the Kurds and the Turks have been fighting for
centuries, and it's not up to the Americans to keep them apart
forever. The implication is that he expects a clash, and he doesn't
want the American forces to be involved. In the past, Trump has made
similar remarks about wanting to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, but
political pressures have prevented him from doing it.
This whole debate gets to the heart of America's role in the world
since the end of World War II. As I've discussed many times,
president Harry Truman adopted the Truman Doctrine that made America
policeman of the world. John F. Kennedy repeated and emphasized this
principle in his inauguration speech: Ask not what your country can do
for you; ask what you can do for your country.
The justification given for the Truman Doctrine was as follows: It's
better to pay a small amount of blood and treasure now to resolve a
small clash than to wait and allow the clash to expand into another
world war, with massive costs in blood and treasure. This argument
was made at a time when people said that if Hitler had been killed in
1935, there would have been no world war or Holocaust.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a completely
flawed analysis. World War II and the Holocaust would have occurred
with or without Hitler. A small American expenditure in blood and
treasure will have no effect whatsoever on whether there is another
world war.
So the withdrawal from Syria may have political or legacy
implications, but it won't cause or prevent a major war. The
withdrawal from Syria is all determined by political pressure, and
it's even that political pressures may force Trump to reverse his
withdrawal plans for Syria again.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Kurds, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Raqqa,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, al-Bab, Jarabulus,
Truman Doctrine
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone'
- Donald Trump announces troop withdrawal from Syria
- Turkey commits to responsibility for captured ISIS fighters
- The Washington debate over a bloodbath in Syria
****
**** Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone'
****
Map showing the buffer zone or safe zone in Syria (Anadolu)
For over a year, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been
demanding to invade Syria and set up a "safe zone" or "buffer zone," a
strip of land 20 miles wide in northern Syria, along the border with
Turkey. The plans have always been blocked by president Donald Trump
and by the presence of American troops in the region, which would mean
that an invasion by Turkish troops would result in a military clash
between two members of Nato.
Erdogan's objectives in setting up the buffer zone include the
following:
- Control Kurds living with the families in northern Syria, whom
Erdogan considers to be terrorists, connected to the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK), which is recognized by the US and EU as a
terrorist group. However, the Kurds in northern Syria were the ones
that defeated ISIS and ejected them from their caliphate in Raqqa,
with air support by America.
- Prevent a further influx of Syrian refugees crossing the border
from Syria into Turkey. Turkey is already hosting 3.5 million Syrian
refugees.
- Resettle two million of the Syrian refugees that Turkey is hosting
into the buffer zone. Analysts consider the objective to be, at best,
fanciful.
Erdogan has wanted to put this plan into effect for over a year, but
was prevented from doing so by the Trump and the United States.
However, in the last couple of months, Erdogan has evidently told
Trump that Turkey will go ahead with the invasion whether American
troops are present or not.
****
**** Donald Trump announces troop withdrawal from Syria
****
When President Trump last year announced his intention to withdraw US
troops from northeast Syria, it drew many protests, and was given as
the reason for the resignation of James Mattis as Defense Secretary.
The protests accused Trump of leaving the Kurds to the mercy of Turkey
and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who views all Kurds as
terrorists. However, it was the Kurds, with the help of American
airstrikes, who defeated ISIS and ejected them from their caliphate in
Raqqa. The Kurds claim that the Americans promised to stay and
protect them from Turkey, but the Americans claim that no such promise
was made. The Kurds are now saying that they've been betrayed and
"stabbed in the back."
Trump delayed the withdrawal because of the huge controversy, but now
has has issued the following statement:
<QUOTE>"The Kurds fought with us, but were paid massive
amounts of money and equipment to do so. They have been fighting
Turkey for decades. I held off this fight for ... almost 3 years,
but it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars,
many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home. WE WILL FIGHT
WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN."<END QUOTE>
Trump's statement follows a meeting last week with Erdogan, and a
phone call of Sunday with Erdogan. Erdogan threatened to begin a
military invasion of Syria whether the US troops were there or not,
and the withdrawal of American troops prevents a confrontation with
Turkish troops.
****
**** Turkey commits to responsibility for captured ISIS fighters
****
Erdogan and Trump meet in June
Another issue is that the successful Kurdish fight against ISIS
resulted in tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners. These ISIS fighters
originally came from other countries, especially European countries,
to join ISIS. As part of the current agreement, Turkey will take
responsibility for all the ISIS fighters held as prisoners.
A White House statement said:
<QUOTE>"The United States Government has pressed France,
Germany, and other European nations, from which many captured ISIS
fighters came, to take them back, but they did not want them and
refused. The United States will not hold them for what could be
many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer. Turkey
will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured
over the past two years."<END QUOTE>
Trump tweeted:
<QUOTE>"When I arrived in Washington, ISIS was running
rampant in the area. We quickly defeated 100% of the ISIS
Caliphate, ... including capturing thousands of ISIS fighters,
mostly from Europe.
But Europe did not want them back, they said you keep them USA! I
said 'NO, we did you a great favor and now you want us to hold
them in U.S. prisons at tremendous cost. They are yours for
trials.' They ... again said 'NO,' thinking, as usual, that the
U.S. is always the 'sucker,' on NATO, on Trade, on
everything."<END QUOTE>
South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who almost always
supports Trump, opposed Trump's withdrawal decision.
<QUOTE>"The biggest lie being told by the administration [is]
that ISIS is defeated. This impulsive decision by the president
has undone all the gains we've made, thrown the region into
further chaos. ... I hope I'm making myself clear how shortsighted
and irresponsible this decision is in my view."<END QUOTE>
Senator Marco Rubio joined Graham and other Republican senators in
criticizing Trump's decision.
****
**** The Washington debate over a bloodbath in Syria
****
There is a very passionate debate going on in Washington over this
decision, and it's a relief that it's a real debate, not like the
impeachment crap.
Some of the criticism is motivated by hatred of Trump by people who
don't have a clue who the Kurds are. In some cases, people opposing
the withdrawal of troops fighting jihadists in Syria are the same
people who, twelve years ago, demanded the withdrawal of troops
fighting jihadists in Iraq, because they hated George Bush.
Those who sincerely oppose the decision to withdraw have several
reasons.
One reason is that they fear a bloodbath as Turkish forces invade
villages occupied by Kurds and their families in northease Syria.
Erdogan has said that this fear is unjustified, as Turkish forces have
already taken control of of al-Bab and Jarabulus in midwestern Syria,
and there was no Kurdish bloodbath.
Another reason is the loss of American credibility from betraying our
allies, the Kurds. America also abandoned the Kurds in Iraq when they
were attacked by Saddam Hussein.
One of the biggest reasons for concern is the possible resurgence of
ISIS. Although the ISIS Caliphate in Raqqa has been eliminated, there
are still about 10,000 ISIS fighters being held by the Kurds in a
prison camp in the desert, along with tens of thousands of their
family members. The ISIS fighters are still being funded, and in the
chaos of a clash between Turkish and Kurdish forces, they could
regroup and recapture territory.
On Monday, Donald Trump gave the reasons for the withdrawal in several
press conferences on Monday.
He pointed out that it was only small pullout. He said that only a
few dozen soldiers are being pulled back from observation posts in a
region on the border where Turkey will be entering Syria. It's
believed that further pullouts will follow later.
Trump also said that he didn't want American troops to be in Syria for
ever, and he asked if we can't withdraw troops now, then when can we?
Trump said that the Kurds and the Turks have been fighting for
centuries, and it's not up to the Americans to keep them apart
forever. The implication is that he expects a clash, and he doesn't
want the American forces to be involved. In the past, Trump has made
similar remarks about wanting to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, but
political pressures have prevented him from doing it.
This whole debate gets to the heart of America's role in the world
since the end of World War II. As I've discussed many times,
president Harry Truman adopted the Truman Doctrine that made America
policeman of the world. John F. Kennedy repeated and emphasized this
principle in his inauguration speech: Ask not what your country can do
for you; ask what you can do for your country.
The justification given for the Truman Doctrine was as follows: It's
better to pay a small amount of blood and treasure now to resolve a
small clash than to wait and allow the clash to expand into another
world war, with massive costs in blood and treasure. This argument
was made at a time when people said that if Hitler had been killed in
1935, there would have been no world war or Holocaust.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a completely
flawed analysis. World War II and the Holocaust would have occurred
with or without Hitler. A small American expenditure in blood and
treasure will have no effect whatsoever on whether there is another
world war.
So the withdrawal from Syria may have political or legacy
implications, but it won't cause or prevent a major war. The
withdrawal from Syria is all determined by political pressure, and
it's even that political pressures may force Trump to reverse his
withdrawal plans for Syria again.
Sources:
- Defying Pentagon, Trump Backs Turkish Operation in Syria Targeting U.S.-backed Kurds (Haaretz, 7-Oct-2019)
- 'Disaster in the making': Fellow Republicans torch Trump's Syria policy (Politico, 7-Oct-2019)
- Turkey threatens military operation into Syria against American-backed Kurdish forces (AP, 6-Oct-2019)
- To set up ‘safe zone,’ US wades into muddled Syria politics (AP, 8-Sep-2019)
- US troops start pullout from along Turkey’s border in Syria (AP, 7-Oct-2019)
- Explainer: Turkey set to redraw map of Syrian war once more (Reuters, 7-Oct-2019)
- Turkey re-writes international law with “safe zone” invasion doctrine (Jerusalem Post, 6-Oct-2019)
- Turkey offers safe zone for 3M Syrians (Anadolu, Turkey, 25-Sep-2019)
- Turkey / Erdogan says Syria operation can come at any moment (Hurriyet, Turkey, 7-Oct-2019)
- Turkey / Main opposition CHP slams gov’t operation in N Syria (Hurriyet, Turkey, 7-Oct-2019)
- Trump threatens Turkey with 'extremely decimated economy' over Syria (Reuters, 7-Oct-2019)
- Biggest danger of Syria withdrawal is Trump's lack of a plan (USA Today, 7-Oct-2019)
- How ISIS Returns (Atlantic, 7-Oct-2019)
- Trump reveals Syria pull-out, warns Turkey (AAP, Australia, 8-Oct-2019)
Related Articles:
- US military moves to protect Syrian Kurds from Turkey's military (03-May-2017)
- Turkey's warplanes strike Kurdish militias fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq (26-Apr-2017)
- Turkey returns to war with the Kurdish PKK (03-Aug-2015)
- Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converge on a major military confrontation in al-Bab (26-Nov-2016)
- Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
- Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war (29-Apr-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Kurds, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Raqqa,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, al-Bab, Jarabulus,
Truman Doctrine
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
