Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Oct-19 World View -- Generational analysis of Syria war and ceasefire agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey and the United States agree to a ceasefire
  
• Turkey's long preparations for invasion of Syria
  
• Turkey's uncontrolled invasion into Syria
  
• Dozens of warring parties and ethnic groups in Syria
  
• The rise of Russia's influence in Syria
  
• Will there be a war between Turkey and Russia?
  

****
**** Turkey and the United States agree to a ceasefire
****


Thursday's negotiations in Ankara. The Turks are on the left, and the Americans are on the right, led respectively by Tayyip Recep Erdogan and Mike Pence. (AP)

In a surprise announcement by Turkey and the United States on
Thursday, Turkey agreed to a temporary ceasefire in its invasion of
Syria, and to end its invasion completely if the ceasefire holds for
five days.

According to reports, Turkey's president Tayyip Recep Erdogan was
visibly angered by being forced to accept this ceasefire, in the face
of harsh economic sanctions and threats of even more sanctions by the
Trump administration.

However, the agreement specifies that Turkey will get some of what it
wants, as well. The US will cooperate with Turkey to set up the
buffer zone that Turkey has been demanding for five years, a strip of
land in northern Syria, 32 km deep and 150 or 300 km long.

The US also agrees to destroy the heavy weapons that it provided to
the Kurds to fight ISIS, and to transport the military Kurdish YPG out
of the buffer zone.

Turkey is hosting 3.6 million refugees who fled across the border
into Turkey to escape the violence. Erdogan has demanded to
relocate 2 million of those refugees back into Syria in the buffer zone,
but it's unclear that they will ever be able to accomplish this.

The rest of this article analyzes Turkey's invasion of Syria from the
point of view of a Generational Dynamics analysis, and conclude with
some forecasts of scenarios about what will happen next.

****
**** Turkey's long preparations for invasion of Syria
****

For almost two years, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been
massing troops and forces on the border with Syria, in preparation for
an invasion to establish a "safe zone" or "buffer zone," a strip of
land 32 km (22 miles) wide in northern Syria, along the border with
Turkey.

The Kurds in northeast Syria have made it clear that they want to
create a Kurdish state named "Rojava" along the border. Erdogan has
made it clear for years, that Turkey will not tolerate having 60,000
armed Kurds permanently located on the border with Turkey, after
Turkey has been fighting an internal war with Kurd separatists and terrorists
for three decades.

Turkey claims that hundreds of Turkish citizens living near the border
have been killed in frequent terror attacks by the Turkistan Workers'
Party (PKK) and al-Qaeda terrorists crossing the border from Syria.
Erdogan has been furious for years that America and Europe haven't
supported his efforts to end these terror attacks.

A major objective of Erdogan is to push the 60,000 armed Kurds and al-Qaeda
terrorists back below the buffer zone.

Erdogan has also been furious for years that Europe won't provide
support for any of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees that Turkey has
been coasting. These 3.6 million refugees include 300,000 Kurds. The
Europeans for five years have been telling Erdogan to wait, because
all these 3.6 million refugees will soon return to Syria. Ironically,
Erdogan's plan for the buffer zone is to provide a region for the
refugees to return to.

So Erdogan has plenty of reasons to feel a growing fury, which is why
he's been massing troops on the Syria border, in preparation for an
invasion to create a buffer zone. Erdogan has held back because there
has been an American "tripwire" force of about 26 soldiers in
observation posts in Syria along Turkey's border.

On Sunday, October 6, Donald Trump spoke on the telephone with
Erdogan. Apparently Erdogan told Trump that the invasion was
occurring whether the "tripwire" was in place or not. Trump announced
that the 26 soldiers in the tripwire would be withdrawn.

****
**** Turkey's uncontrolled invasion into Syria
****

After Trump's announcement the invasion began. There were 15,000 soldiers
in the Turkish troops, but apparently most of them are Syrian Arabs
in the Syrian National Army (SNA). In the past there have been two
previous Turkish incursions into Syria, and in both cases it was SNA fighters
that did most of the fighting, with Turkey providing support.

This week, there were immediately reports of the Turkish forces
massacring Kurds on the ground. There was a video of an SNA Arab
torturing and killing a Kurd, and bragging about it.

There were reports that Turkish/SNA forces are going farther south
than was needed for the buffer zone. There were reports that Turkish
airstrikes were forcing thousands of Kurdish families to flee their
homes to the south. However, these reports come from media are
overwhelmingly hostile to Turkey, and so it's possible that these
reports are huge exaggerations. At any rate, it's impossible to
verify them at the present time.

In the last 15 years, I've read about and written about hundreds of
incursions, military actions, invasions, and so forth, all around the
world. In some cases, the incursion is carefully controlled and
organized. These are typical of non-crisis wars.

Other incursions are highly emotional, organic, uncontrolled and
disorganized, and that seems to be the case with Turkey's invasion of
Syria. These are typical of actions taken at the beginning of a
generational crisis war.

Turkey's invasion of Syria shows all the signs of being organic and
uncontrolled, not fully under the control of Turkey's armed forces
command. In particular, the Arabs in the SNA appear to be responsible
for the massacres, and are taking actions that are not controlled
by the Turkish command.

So does this mean that Turkey and the Kurds are headed for a full-scaled
generational crisis war? Absolutely not.

We have a recent example that illustrates what's most likely to
happen.

The best recent analogy would be Israel's 2006 invasion of Lebanon to
attack Hezbollah. Israel panicked when two Israeli soldiers were
abducted near Lebanon's border, and conducted a highly emotional,
organic and uncontrolled invasion of Lebanon. The war was a disaster
for all involved. After a few months, the war had run its course,
with nothing accomplished except to destroy a lot of Lebanon's
infrastructure in airstrikes, and displace a lot of Lebanese from
their homes.

The invasion of Lebanon fizzled because Lebanon was in a
generatinal Awakening era. Syria is also in a generational Awakening
era, so Turkey's new invasion is almost certain to fizzle unless,
as we'll describe later, Russia's armed forces confront Turkey.

So, as I've been writing for the last few days in the Generational
Dynamics forum, it's more likely than not that Turkey's Syria
incursion will end in a few weeks. Erdogan made a statement a few
days ago that the incursion will stop when it has created a buffer
zone 400 km wide and 35 km deep, and that statement is credible,
though it may have been superceded by Thursday's ceasefire
announcement.

****
**** Dozens of warring parties and ethnic groups in Syria
****

Turkey's invasion of Syria appears to be a lot more uncontrolled than
analysts had expected, suggesting that there's more going on than a
simple action to create a buffer zone, to protect Turkey from PKK and
al-Qaeda "terrorists." In fact, Turkey's last generational crisis war
was the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and Turkish independence
following World War I, and so Turkey is very deep into a generational
crisis war. And so it's not surprising that parts of the invasion
have become disorganized and uncontrolled, at least for a while.

Bashar al-Assad is a Shia/Alawite, and Syria's last generational
crisis war was a religious/ethnic civil war between the Shia Alawites
versus the Sunnis, including the ethnic Turkmens, climaxing in
February, 1982. So there's a great deal of animus between the
Alawites and the Turks. However, survivors of that Syrian civil war
are still alive, and they have no desire for another bloody
uncontrolled crisis war, so they will make sure that it stays
controlled, despite al-Assad's genocidal tactics. So Syria is in a
generational Awakening era, like Lebanon during Israel's 2006
invasion, so it's likely that Turkey's invasion of Syria will fizzle
over a furious period of two or three months.

A new Syrian civil war began in 2011, but it's an Awakening era war,
so it's well-controlled. It should have fizzled within a few months
in 2011. But it was propelled by the sociopathic monster Bashar
al-Assad, who personally pursued the war by targeting political
enemies, innocent women and children in markets, schools and
hospitals, using barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas.

Even so, it's been clear from the beginning that the Syrian people
themselves did not want to fight. By 2015, al-Assad himself announced
publicly that he was going to lose the war, and he begged for help,
which he received from Russia, in return for establishing two Russian
military bases, Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase).

So today, here's a (partial) list of all the groups fighting
in Syria:

• Syria's armed forces, Russia's armed forces,
  
• Iran, Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hezbollah,
  
• ISIS (Islamic State, Daesh),
  
• HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front),
  
• JFS (Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria),
  
• Turkey's armed forces, SNA (Syrian National Army),
  
• United States armed forces and coalition forces,
  
• YPG (People's Protection Units), PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party)
  
• SDF (Syrian Democratic/Defense Forces), multiple Kurdish groups,
  
• several Christian groups and other religious minorities

Most of these are small groups formed on an ad-hoc basis for a
specific purpose.

The Kurds themselves are not a monolithic group, as described by a
member of the Generational Dynamics forum, an American soldier who
fought in Iraq and Syria:

<QUOTE>"John, When people talk about the Kurds, they are
mistaken. The “Kurds” are not a monolithic group. That is a
general title that has many “diverse” groups and that term is used
by the lazy media. I dealt with the “Kurds.” There are radical
communists “Kurds” that will snuff out the Islamic/Wahhabi “Kurds”
in a heartbeat. Many are armed families that are organized into
“battalions” that would be a glorified light infantry
company/platoon in a western army. A tiny few hate the Turks and
love killing them. Many live in Turkey and have no problems with
the Turks. Like the Afghans, they will align with the big “man”
for self-preservation of the tribe/ethnic group. The Turks will
make nice with the “Kurds” for now; it is the least bloody way
forward, since the “Kurds” make a sizeable minority in Turkey
proper."<END QUOTE>

So this makes the point that there are dozens of Arab, Kurdish,
Alawite and Turkish groups fighting in Syria. Each group has its own
agenda, its own hatreds, its own objectives, its own allegiances, and
its own set of tricks to use on Americans to get their support.

This chaos should be kept in mind by those politicians who claim that
the US should send troops into Syria to defend our "allies," the Kurds.
Which of those dozens of groups would the American troops be aligned
with?

****
**** The rise of Russia's influence in Syria
****

If you look at all the list of groups fighting in Syria, you'll see
that almost all of them are small ethnic or ad-hoc groups with various
agendas. But not all.

In that list, there are six national armies actively fighting: Syria,
Russia, Turkey, Iran, Lebanon-Hezbollah, United States.

Of these six, Syria, Iran, and Lebanon-Hezbollah have armies in
generational Awakening eras, with little will to fight an expanding
war.

Two of them, Turkey and Russia, are in generational Crisis eras.
These two countries are historic enemies, and have fought many
generational crisis wars with each other. One of those was the
Crimean War of the 1850s, which was disastrous for both sides, but
feelings from the Crimean war have been revived in recent years
because of Russia's illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea, and
expulsion of the Tatars, a Turkic ethnic group from Crimea. And
there's also tension over the Bosphorus, which is controlled by
Turkey, but is heavily used by Russia (and other nations) as the
connection between the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. And of
course, tensions were extremely high after Turkey "accidentally" shot
down a Russian warplane in November, 2015.

Turkey and Russia know how strong their mutual xenophobia has become,
and they're both aware that a small conflict could lead to a major
war, which neither side wants. So Turkey and Russia have been making
Herculean efforts, through the "Astana process," to stay out of each
other's way, to prevent an action that could lead to a major war.
This is typical of countries in a generational Crisis era, who know
that a miscalculation could lead to a major generational crisis war,
but instead force themselves to compromise rather than go to war.
Eventually, however, compromise becomes impossible, and small
incidents escalate into full-scale war.

Since 2011, Russia has been fully engaged in supporting al-Assad's
genocide and ethnic cleansing of his Arab Sunni political enemies,
including Turkic groups such as Turkmens. But Turkey has let Russia
and al-Assad have their way, even including chlorine and Sarin gas,
and has not interfered, having agreed to the farcical "de-escalation
zones" in the "Astana process," because they realize that not letting
the Russians get their way would mean full-scale war.

Al-Assad and Russia have used the de-escalation zone agreement to
conduct full-scale genocidal war on all the people in every
de-escalation zone except one. In Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa, where
Bashar al-Assad has used barrel bombs on hospitals, schools,
marketplaces and residential neighborhoods, along with chlorine gas
and Sarin gas, forcing people to flee to Idlib.

The remaining de-escalation zone is Idlib, in northwest Syria, on
Turkey's border. Al-Assad would like to go in an exterminate all
three million Arab Sunnis living in Idlib, including women and
children, all of whom are "terrorists" according to al-Assad, and
Russia would like to help him, but everyone knows that would be
opposed militarily by Turkey, and could lead to a Russia-Turkey war.
So there's a continuing tense standoff in Idlib.

Returning now to northeast Syria, we have the Kurds, who want to form
their own secessionist state of Rojava on the border with Turkey.
Thanks to their US-backed fight against ISIS, the Kurds now have
control of a large part of Syria, including the planned state of
Rojava, and gaining control of that land was a major part of their
motivation to fight ISIS.

Now the Kurds have Rojava almost in their grasp, but the thought of
Rojava with tens of thousands of armed Kurds on Turkey's border makes
the Turks' blood run cold, as terrorist attacks in Turkey would
certainly be launched from Rojava. So Turkey has invaded Syria in
order to set up a buffer zone, and destroy the Rojava dream once and
for all.

****
**** Will there be a war between Turkey and Russia?
****

The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) has been threatening for a
year to make an agreement Bashar al-Assad for the protection of the
Kurds from Turkey. The SDF has formalized the deal in the last few
days, and the Syrian Army has been moving north to protect the Kurds.

In response, Russian special forces have been moving into northeast
Syria, taking over some of the responsibilities that the US military
previously had, to keep SDF and Turkish forces separated as much as
possible.

Many of the hysterical news reports on the situation have been blaming
Trump for ceding American influence to Russia in the Mideast.

So let me be clear about this, as I repeat what I've said in one way
or another for 15 years.

Russia is not America's enemy. Russia is the enemy of Georgia and
Ukraine, but not America, and not Western Europe. Our enemy is China,
not Russia. The Russian people love us, the Chinese people not so
much (except for the Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong).

As I've written many times, in the coming Clash of Civilizations world
war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be our
enemies, and our allies will be India, Russia and Iran.

So despite the hysteria in the mainstream media, I'm not the least bit
concerned that Russia is gaining influence in the Mideast. Russia and
Iran will be our allies in WW III, and China will be our enemy.

The more immediate question is whether there will soon be a war
between Turkey and Russia, the two generational Crisis era countries
with a long, bitter history of bloody wars. As I said earlier, Turkey
and Russia have been taking steps, usually through the "Astana
process," to stay out of each other's way, to prevent an action that
could lead to a major war. Russia's actions to keep Syria's army
separated from Turkey's forces and the SDF are another action of that
type.

But how effective will Russia's efforts be? Recall the earlier
analogy -- Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 2006. That war fizzled, as
I said, but not overnight. The war went on for over two months.
During that time, the Israelis were highly emotional and uncontrolled,
and they made one disastrous mistake after another, while the
Hezbollah fighters were much cooler, setting off rockets into Israeli
territory, and then going home to their wives.

The Turks have been massing on the Syria border for months, and they
made an emotional, uncontrolled invasion into Syria. I would be very,
very surprised if that uncontrolled invasion suddenly ended, thanks to
an agreement between Turkey and the United States. I would expect the
ceasefire to fall apart within a few days, and for fighting to resume.
However, a ceasefire could succeed within a couple of months.

So the real question is: What are the Russians going to do? Will they
sit back and let the incursions by Turkish and Arab SNA forces
continue? If so, then the war will fizzle within a couple of months.

Or will the Russians respond with military force directed at Turkey?
That's the major risk, because that's how major wars start.

What happens next in Syria does not depend on what the US does. It
depends on what Russia does. If Russia remains controlled, then the
war will play itself out within 2-3 months. If Russia becomes more
aggressive or uncontrolled, then a larger war will result.

---- Sources:

• Turkey deal may ease domestic criticism of Trump but doubts remain (AFP, 18-Oct-2019)
  
• Tentative Syria Cease-Fire Is a Major Win for Turkey (ForeignPolicy, 17-Oct-2019)
  
• Turkey has agreed to a ceasefire in Syria, but key questions remain unanswered (AP, 17-Oct-2019)
  
• The Assad-SDF deal was in the works before Turkey’s Syria operation (TRT World, Turkey, 17-Oct-2019)
  
• US hails Turkish cease-fire; Kurds must vacate border area (AP, 17-Oct-2019)
  
• Erdogan snubs US, seeks Russia help (Reuters, 17-Oct-2019)
  
• Esper says U.S. staying in Syria, but withdrawing south of Turkish advance and deal in works to have Russians protect Kurds (Military Times, 13-Oct-2019)
  
• Russian and Syrian troops fill void as US pulls troops out of Syria (Military Times, 15-Oct-2019)
  
• Money, hatred for the Kurds drives Turkey’s Syrian fighters (Military Times/AP, 15-Oct-2019)

Related Article:

• Turkey defends Syria invasion, despite almost universal condemnation (11-Oct-2019)
  
  
• Turkey poised to invade Syria to set up 'safe zone' (08-Oct-2019)
  
  
• Syria peace summit issues delusional call for political solution in Idlib (28-Oct-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Kurds, Bashar al-Assad, Alawites,
Syrian Democratic Force, SDF, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK,
Rojava, Syrian National Army, SNA,
Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Russia, China

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John J. Xenakis
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