Generational Dynamics World View

[David Horn]

(10-25-2019, 10:41 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: By 2070, there will have been a world war, and the world will be well into the Singularity, and there may no longer be a stock market at all.

… So ignoring the Singularity, the DJIA will be 91,000 in 2070.

You seem fascinated by the Singularity which, by definition, cannot be contemplated in any reasonable fashion. Will it happen at some point? Sure. We're already plodding along with quantum computing, and conventional AI. Marrying the two virtually guarantees a quantum change (pun intended). The real problems are two: when and what. When requires a crystal ball, since all projections of fundamental change are wrong, right to the minute they're right. A breakthrough (hopefully one that doesn't threaten the future existence of humans) will trigger the fallover point, and it's off to the races form there … probably, at least. We can't really know. The 'what' is even harder to fathom. Humans may cease to exist, become trans-human, become something akin to pets or be partners with the emerging new paradigm … or something else entirely.

So let's make a few assumptions. First: we won't live to see any of this. Second: our children may not either. Third: the generations in place at the time will be the product of what we do in the interim. Fourth: no single path is identifiably better than any other, when the goal is totally undefined -- with one exception. We humans should prefer some substantial degree of freedom at the entry point. That guarantees nothing, but makes much more possible. This is no different than the goals we're trying to reach in the current paradigm, so we should get on with it, and let the futurists look for the coming magic in the entrails they study.