Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 26-Oct-2019 World View: The Singularity

(10-26-2019, 08:41 AM)David Horn Wrote: > You seem fascinated by the Singularity which, by definition,
> cannot be contemplated in any reasonable fashion. Will it happen
> at some point? Sure. We're already plodding along with quantum
> computing, and conventional AI. Marrying the two virtually
> guarantees a quantum change (pun intended). The real problems are
> two: when and what. When requires a crystal ball, since all
> projections of fundamental change are wrong, right to the minute
> they're right. A breakthrough (hopefully one that doesn't
> threaten the future existence of humans) will trigger the fallover
> point, and it's off to the races form there … probably, at least.
> We can't really know. The 'what' is even harder to fathom.
> Humans may cease to exist, become trans-human, become something
> akin to pets or be partners with the emerging new paradigm … or
> something else entirely.

> So let's make a few assumptions. First: we won't live to see any
> of this. Second: our children may not either. Third: the
> generations in place at the time will be the product of what we do
> in the interim. Fourth: no single path is identifiably better
> than any other, when the goal is totally undefined -- with one
> exception. We humans should prefer some substantial degree of
> freedom at the entry point. That guarantees nothing, but makes
> much more possible. This is no different than the goals we're
> trying to reach in the current paradigm, so we should get on with
> it, and let the futurists look for the coming magic in the
> entrails they study.

I don't know what word you're referring to that includes "cannot be
contemplated in any reasonable fashion" in its definition, but
Singularity is certainly not that word, since many people have
contemplated the Singularity in reasonable fashion.

Many quantities related to finance and technology grow at fixed
exponential rates. The DJIA does, which is why I can say that the
2070 trend value is 91,000.

The power of computers is also growing exponentially. Google "Moore's
Law" for more information, but even when transistors reach their
limits, things like quantum computing will continue the same
exponential growth.

I wrote an article in 2005 estimating that the Singularity will occur
around 2030. I re-posted the article a couple of years ago, since I
consider still to be valid.

** Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...151228.htm

Other people who are knowledgeable about computers estimate 2040 or
2050, and in one case 2060. I don't recall anyone who is very
knowledgeable about computers estimating any later than that. So by
2070, the world will be well into the Singularity.

Here are a couple more articles I've written about the subject:

** 13-Mar-16 World View -- Google's AlphaGo computer defeats world champion at game of Go
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e160313


** 29-Dec-15 World View -- Artificial Intelligence breakthroughs in 2015, the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151229


** 19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e110219

Also, Tom Mazanec wrote a science fiction short story about time
travelers who survive World War III and the Singularity, but go back
in time and try to prevent them from happening at all.

** 'Maybe we'll get it right this time' by Tom Mazanec
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...090309.htm