(10-28-2019, 09:36 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 28-Oct-2019 World View: A teaching moment for forum members
Trump's announcement of the killing of al-Baghdadi provides me with
a teaching opportunity for those who read the Generational Dynamics
web site and forum, and have been making snarky comments directed
at me with the implication that the only reason I wrote about
it is because you imagine I love Trump.
shoshin Wrote:> There's always a Tweet....
> Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) tweeted at 9:12 PM on Mon, Oct
> 22, 2012: Stop congratulating Obama for killing Bin Laden. The
> Navy Seals killed Bin Laden. #debate
> (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/stat...52480?s=09)
zzazz Wrote:> I saw the nes. Trump was boasting " I killed al-Baghdadi ", " I
> killed al-Baghdadi .", I killed al-Baghdadi ."
> And I thought to myself, Xenakis is claiming that Trump
> understands GD. But here is proof he doesn't, because GD says the
> individual leaders don't contribute a thing to history. So I
> thought I'd waltz over here to read Xenakis setting Trump
> right. But to my surprise what Xenakis was actually saying was
> "Trume killed al-Baghdadi". "Trump killed al-Baghdadi", "Trump
> killed al-Baghdadi". Sheeeeeeesh
So, in response to these snarky comments, here's what I wrote
on May 2, 2011, when Osama bin Laden was killed:
John Xenakis Wrote:> Osama bin Laden is dead
> Late Sunday evening, President Barack Obama announced that Osama
> bin Laden was killed a week ago by a U.S. bomb delivered manually,
> not by a drone, based on actionable US intelligence. DNA tests
> have confirmed that it's really OBL. Bin Laden was killed in a
> mansion in Abbottabad, Pakistan, near Islamabad. American bases
> around the world have been told to be on high alert for revenge
> attacks. The death of OBL is an important symbolic act at this
> time, but it may not have much effect on the operations in
> Afghanistan. OBL's death by American attack in Pakistan will have
> repercussions in relations between the U.S. and Pakistan, and will
> cause a backlash among Pakistanis who object to U.S. missile
> strikes in Pakistan. Furthermore, the fact that OBL was killed
> near the Pakistani capital of Islamabad will raise suspicions that
> Pakistan's intelligence group suspected or knew where he was.
> Hundreds of joyful Washingtonians and students gathered outside
> the north lawn of the White House, cheering, chanting "USA!" and
> singing the Star Spangled Banner.
> ** 2-May-11 World View -- Osama bin Laden is dead
> ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e110502
So as you can see, Dear Snarky Reader, what I wrote about the bin Laden
killing has the same tone as what I wrote about the al-Bagdadi killing.
This is a good example of how I treated Obama and Trump in exactly
the same way.
Obama recognized the slightness of his role (signing off on the decision), gave credit to the intelligence services and the Armed Services for a job done well, and asserted that anyone who kills Americans in terrorist attacks can expect much the same. He did not gloat.
Quote:The real evil today is the total demented obsession that Democrats
have with Trump.
Donald Trump is a horrible person wholly unsuited to the Presidency. It is he who has the sick obsession with the repudiation of his predecessor. The next effective conservative President will act much more like Obama than like Trump.
Ronald Reagan had his limitations, but he at least recognized those limitations, could recognize sage advice from people more expert than he, and could back off from something going awry.
Quote:The result is that Democrats are becoming stupider every day. The
reason is that there's a lot going on in the world, but Democrats know
almost nothing about it, since they know little to start with, and
then the Democrats spend 24 hours a day obsessing over their
impeachment carnival instead of paying attention to the world. So
they know less and less about the world every day (except for the ones
who read my web site). So I'm not joking when I say that Democrats
are getting stupider every day. And Hillary Clinton, particularly,
seems to have become psychotic.
No, just more certain and resolute as Trump piles on more objectionable behavior while solving nothing. Besides, Democrats seem to be winning more of the well-educated part of the electorate from the Republican Party while losing the under-educated part of the white population as part of the electorate. Meanwhile, Asians and Hispanics have not been assimilating into the Republican Party as they used to when they assimilate into the middle class. As late as 1964, a majority of Americans with college degrees voted for Barry Goldwater. Eisenhower won overwhelming majorities among college graduates and did badly among high-school dropouts. Obama won a majority of college graduates and lost badly to under-educated white voters (people with no college education are now considered under-educated). To be sure, under-educated blacks and Hispanics still vote heavily Democratic, probably because the well-off in their ethnic groups have influence upon them as well-off white people have little influence upon poor whites.
There are far more people with college degrees than there used to be, and the ill-educated white people could never get along with the Eisenhower-Rockefeller Republicans once necessary for Republican wins of the Presidency. Scratch the surface of Obama supporters in the suburbs, and you often find an Eisenhower-Rockefeller Republican in ideology -- someone aghast at any form of demagoguery, including anti-intellectualism.
Quote:I'll start with an example. World War I was triggered when Austrian
Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated by a Serb high school
student. It's not that Ferdinand was some fantastic leader who was
controlling history. It's because the killing was an event that
triggered other events.
Europe was a powder-keg. Its most powerful leaders still had the attitude characteristic that any offense to the Ruler was a cause for striking back hard. Meanwhile the political leadership had failed to adjust to the economic and cultural realities making near-absolute monarchy obsolete. Leaders often were still of the mindset that had established the reactionary era following the defeat of Napoleon Bonaparte. Golden Ages, as the historian Barbara Tuchman wrote in The Proud Tower, do not immolate themselves in mutually-suicidal warfare, let alone make the likes of Lenin and Hitler possible in the aftermath. Something other than the assassination of the Archduke would have precipitated something like WWI.
Quote:So the killing of al-Baghdadi will almost certainly provoke revenge
attacks, as the killing of bin Laden did. During his press
conference, Trump repeatedly said that al-Baghdadi died like a coward,
died like a dog, whimpering and crying. He said that repeatedly so
that it would be clear that al-Baghdadi was no hero, but a pathetic
figure who should be forgotten, not avenged.
As I like to put it, history is all too often an obscene tale whose ink is the blood of innocent people, including those who get dragooned into war as soldiers. Yes, the German soldier of WWII was usually as innocent as Field Marshal Wilhelm Keitel was guilty.
...If Osama bin Laden died pleading for his life, then Obama had the decency to not say so. al-Baghdadi may have spared himself of a court trial in which his crimes against humanity would be exposed, and of course it is regrettable that he took three children with him.
We have a good reason for studying history -- not so much for any pornography of human suffering, but instead so that we can avoid making the same or similar mistakes when the opportunity arises. It is best to stop the tempting retribution when judging the culpable. We must remember Genghis Khan and Adolf Hitler. Yes, I see Donald Trump as the American equivalent of Nero or Caligula. To be sure, neither Nero nor Caligula was elected, but both became demagogues in practices. Donald Trump got elected as a demagogue. If we Americans are to learn anything from the Trump mess, it is that we must reject demagoguery in any form and not believe that we simply need to elect the demagoguery that fits our values and desires.
Some day we may find, as in 1980, that the solution to mass economic distress in which many complain about being overworked and underpaid is to be worked harder for less and compensate for such by taking on second jobs that we find even more degrading so that we can all share in the creation of wealth that ultimately creates more opportunity and puts an end to stagflation.
Quote:Another interesting thing about the killing, which I mentioned in
the article, is that the US received the cooperation of Russia,
Turkey, and others in the operation.
Trump said it, so it must be true. Sure.
Such as that global warming is a myth? Then why did I see a small snake slithering around last Sunday even if snakes usually have hibernated by now where I live? It's almost Halloween, and I have yet to have seen any frost. Yes, I live to the north of Interstate 90, so I have not moved south.
Quote:Generational Dynamics is a non-ideological methodology for
interpreting and analyzing history and current events. The Core
Principle of Generational Dynamics, which I've stated many times, is
as follows:
Quote: Core Principle of Generational Dynamics:
"Even in a dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of
people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians.
Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II or the Holocaust. What
politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their
actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent,
and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events
of history -- but can only bring about marginal
adjustments."
The Core Principle applies to Trump, to Obama, to al-Baghdadi, to
Ferdinand, and to all politicians.
I've written 6,000 articles in the last 15 years, containing thousands
of Generational Dynamics analyses and predictions about hundreds of
countries, all of which have come true or are trending true. There is
no journalist, politician, analyst or web site anywhere in the world
with a better record of accurate analysis and forecasting.
Generational Dynamics is a major development.
So what blinds you to the hollowness, cruelty, recklessness, ignorance, and dishonesty of Donald Trump? As Heraclitus puts it in one of the shortest but most complete statements of wisdom ever made,
Character is destiny.
I can say this: if I had a child to raise I would put character above all intellectual ability, cultural sophistication, class privilege, and technical wizardry. Poor character makes all those advantages makes one even more damaging if one gets the opportunity to use such talent. I have gotten to meet people often derided as "trailer trash". For whatever limitations they have, many are far better people than Donald Trump even if they have humble roles as cleaners, servants, or laborers.
I no longer deride people as "trailer trash". It is not the trailer that makes trash out of people: it is people who trash their state in life, whether they be people so disabled that they cannot hold jobs or heirs of great fortunes.
The world would be far better off had Josef Goebbels been a farmhand.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
