10-29-2019, 06:16 PM
** 29-Oct-2019 World View: Exponential increases in computing power
Nobody believes this. You're saying that progress in computer
technology, which has been proceeding exponentially for decades, is
now stone cold dead.
This reminds me of that guy in the 1880s who said that the US Patent
Office should be closed, because everything important had already been
invented.
Ray Kurzweil showed that the exponential growth of computer power
didn't start with transistors. He showed that if you start with the
machines used in the 1890 census, then consider new variations of card
processing machines over the decades, and then vacuum tubes, then
transistors were simply the next step. So computing power has been
doubling every 18 months at least since the 1890s.
I've been reading for years that the demise of Moore's law would
occur in the 2000s, and yet here it is in 2019, still going strong.
New technologies are coming along -- quantum computing, molecular
computing, nano computing. One or more of these technologies will
continue the exponential growth curve for computer power.
Here's one of my favorite graphs:
![[Image: lightlog.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/lightlog.jpg)
This graph shows that the efficiency of illumination sources increased
exponentially for many decades, through one technology after another.
Exponential technology trend forecasting is very mysterious,
because it happens all over the place, and no one understands why.
** Book I / Chapter 11 -- Trend Forecasting
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w....trend.htm
That book chapter discusses the efficiency of illumination sources and
several other examples. Another example is the development of jet
planes, which became available in WW II. Most people claim that jet
planes were invented BECAUSE OF WW II, but that isn't true. Jet
planes became available at precisely the correct time to continue the
exponential growth of maximum speed of military aircraft.
I tried to explain exponential trend forecasting in my 2005 article on
the Singularity, reposted in 2015:
** Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...151228.htm
However, the proof that I provided in that chapter has a flaw, as I
explained. So it remains mysterious.
But even though I can't always explain it, that doesn't mean it isn't
happening. Computing power will continue to grow exponentially, and
the Singularity is coming soon.
(10-28-2019, 10:16 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > While I agree with the "fast enough computer" theory, I don't
> necessarily agree with the idea that we'll get computers fast
> enough and efficient enough.
> Here's the issue: for decades, Moore's law was driven by reduction
> in processor size. Unfortunately, within the past decade, that
> reduction reached a physical limit as circuits on the chips shrank
> to the point that inductance effects between adjacent "wires"
> became limiting.
> At this point, Moore's law is being driven by parallelism instead
> of more powerful processors: having larger numbers of the same old
> processors running in parallel. That can still result in ever more
> powerful computers - but they will also be ever larger and consume
> ever more energy. That limits their usefulness in certain
> applications, in particular mobile applications.
> In 2050, the best artists may well be computers which fill
> buildings. We may still be traveling around town in Uber and Lyft
> vehicles driven by human beings, however.
Nobody believes this. You're saying that progress in computer
technology, which has been proceeding exponentially for decades, is
now stone cold dead.
This reminds me of that guy in the 1880s who said that the US Patent
Office should be closed, because everything important had already been
invented.
Ray Kurzweil showed that the exponential growth of computer power
didn't start with transistors. He showed that if you start with the
machines used in the 1890 census, then consider new variations of card
processing machines over the decades, and then vacuum tubes, then
transistors were simply the next step. So computing power has been
doubling every 18 months at least since the 1890s.
I've been reading for years that the demise of Moore's law would
occur in the 2000s, and yet here it is in 2019, still going strong.
New technologies are coming along -- quantum computing, molecular
computing, nano computing. One or more of these technologies will
continue the exponential growth curve for computer power.
Here's one of my favorite graphs:
- Efficiency of illumination sources -- increases exponentially
through multiple technologies
This graph shows that the efficiency of illumination sources increased
exponentially for many decades, through one technology after another.
Exponential technology trend forecasting is very mysterious,
because it happens all over the place, and no one understands why.
** Book I / Chapter 11 -- Trend Forecasting
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w....trend.htm
That book chapter discusses the efficiency of illumination sources and
several other examples. Another example is the development of jet
planes, which became available in WW II. Most people claim that jet
planes were invented BECAUSE OF WW II, but that isn't true. Jet
planes became available at precisely the correct time to continue the
exponential growth of maximum speed of military aircraft.
I tried to explain exponential trend forecasting in my 2005 article on
the Singularity, reposted in 2015:
** Artificial Intelligence and the Singularity by 2030
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...151228.htm
However, the proof that I provided in that chapter has a flaw, as I
explained. So it remains mysterious.
But even though I can't always explain it, that doesn't mean it isn't
happening. Computing power will continue to grow exponentially, and
the Singularity is coming soon.
