11-02-2019, 10:20 AM
** 02-Nov-2019 World View: Population growth
That's a really good analysis. You've obviously thought about this
a lot more than most people have.
The population grows faster than the food supply for humans, as it
does for pretty much all animal species. That means that it's necessary
to reduce the population every now and then -- through war, disease
and famine -- so that the survivors have enough to eat.
But actually that's not true. It's only necessary to reduce the
rate of population growth every now and then, so that it's lower
than the rate of growth for the food supply (and other resources).
Even that's only true regionally, as you point out. If you look at
the population of the world as a whole, then at any given time
population continues to grow as usual in most of the world, while
population (growth) falls in other regions, so that world population
growth averages out to low level that's still positive.
Here's a graph that I've always found fascinating:
![[Image: popchilg.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/popchilg.jpg)
If we speculate and apply some of these concepts to interpreting this
graph, then historically, China was always very insular. Since
ancient times, the Chinese viewed themselves as the Middle Kingdom --
there was the Kingdom of heaven, there was China (the Middle Kingdom),
and there were the barbarians (the rest of the world). The Great Wall
of China was begun in the Qin Dynasty around 200 BC, and they
considered the South China Sea to be a "natural great wall" that they
stayed completely away from, until recent times when they've been
illegal annexing it for Lebensraum.
So the Chinese mostly fought wars among themselves, and you can see
from the graph that the population rose and fell quite dramatically.
Then in 1206 the Mongols conquered China, and so there began to
develop multiple generational timelines within China's population. By
1400, there were probably still huge dramatic rises and falls in the
population -- on a regional level -- but the population of China as a
whole continued to grow, generally matching the trend line. China
then started having wars not only with the Mongols, but also with the
Russians and with the Turks in Central Asia and with the Tibetans.
The trend line, incidentally, could be thought of as a proxy for
growth in food production, with population rising and falling
depending on the availability of food.
As I said, this is speculation. I've had that graph on file for 15
years. I got these figures in 2003 from a book called Historical
Dynamics by Peter Turchin, but today I have no idea where the numbers
came from, or what parts of China, Mongolia, Central Asia, Tibet and
Russia they include.
Tom Mazanec Wrote:> Then why has the human population grown every decade since about
> 1400?
Guest Wrote:> Because most wars fought since 1400 have not been world wars; they
> are relatively localized conflicts. Also, the firepower involved
> was much less. Yes, you could butcher a lot of people with swords
> and knives, but you had to catch them first. With carpet bombing
> it's much easier to kill huge numbers of people. Countries at
> peace could see populations grow, as opposed to countries at
> war. Improvements in medical care and diet (especially food
> production) play a huge role. Infant mortality was sky high in the
> past, and now it is rock bottom. WW 3 will play out
> differently.
That's a really good analysis. You've obviously thought about this
a lot more than most people have.
The population grows faster than the food supply for humans, as it
does for pretty much all animal species. That means that it's necessary
to reduce the population every now and then -- through war, disease
and famine -- so that the survivors have enough to eat.
But actually that's not true. It's only necessary to reduce the
rate of population growth every now and then, so that it's lower
than the rate of growth for the food supply (and other resources).
Even that's only true regionally, as you point out. If you look at
the population of the world as a whole, then at any given time
population continues to grow as usual in most of the world, while
population (growth) falls in other regions, so that world population
growth averages out to low level that's still positive.
Here's a graph that I've always found fascinating:
- Population of China -- 200 BC to 1700 AD
If we speculate and apply some of these concepts to interpreting this
graph, then historically, China was always very insular. Since
ancient times, the Chinese viewed themselves as the Middle Kingdom --
there was the Kingdom of heaven, there was China (the Middle Kingdom),
and there were the barbarians (the rest of the world). The Great Wall
of China was begun in the Qin Dynasty around 200 BC, and they
considered the South China Sea to be a "natural great wall" that they
stayed completely away from, until recent times when they've been
illegal annexing it for Lebensraum.
So the Chinese mostly fought wars among themselves, and you can see
from the graph that the population rose and fell quite dramatically.
Then in 1206 the Mongols conquered China, and so there began to
develop multiple generational timelines within China's population. By
1400, there were probably still huge dramatic rises and falls in the
population -- on a regional level -- but the population of China as a
whole continued to grow, generally matching the trend line. China
then started having wars not only with the Mongols, but also with the
Russians and with the Turks in Central Asia and with the Tibetans.
The trend line, incidentally, could be thought of as a proxy for
growth in food production, with population rising and falling
depending on the availability of food.
As I said, this is speculation. I've had that graph on file for 15
years. I got these figures in 2003 from a book called Historical
Dynamics by Peter Turchin, but today I have no idea where the numbers
came from, or what parts of China, Mongolia, Central Asia, Tibet and
Russia they include.
