11-02-2019, 09:40 PM
*** 3-Nov-19 World View -- Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq
****
![[Image: g191102b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g191102b.jpg)
Anti-government protesters stand on a building in Baghdad last week (CNN)
Tens of thousands of protesters gathered in the capital city Baghdad
and cities across Iraq on Saturday to continue anti-government and
anti-Iran protests that began in early October.
In the Umm Qasr port, which is in southern Iraq, south of the city of
Basra, hundreds of people were wounded in clashes between security
forces and protesters, as protesters set up blockades and burned tires
to shut down the port. Operations at the port, which receives the
vast bulk of Iraq's imports of grain, vegetable oils and sugar, have
been at a complete standstill since Wednesday.
The protests are similar to those that I described last week in
Lebanon. ( "21-Oct-19 World View -- Massive anti-government street protests paralyze Lebanon"
)
Like Lebanon, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, like America in
the 1960s, following the Iran/Iraq war (1980-88), which was a
Persian-Arab war. Today's protests are not sectarian (anti-Sunni vs
anti-Shia) but are anti-government, and particularly against massive
government corruption.
****
**** History of the Iran/Iraq war
****
Most generational crisis wars in the Mideast occurred in the
context of World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman empire.
Iraq's generational crisis war was the 1920 Great Iraqi Revolution,
which was a watershed event in Iraqi history. It was not a sectarian
(Sunni vs Shia) war. Instead, the entire country Sunnis, Shias,
tribes and cities were united in fighting the British colonists.
Sixty years later, in 1980, Iraq's dictator Saddam Hussein launched
an invasion of Iraq. This following Iran's revolution in 1979, and
Saddam thought Iran would be weakened for an easy conquest. Instead,
Saddam's invasion united the Iranians.
The Iran/Iraq war was one of the longest and bloodiest wars of the
20th century. Chemical weapons and large-scale missile attacks were
used. There were millions of casualties and refugees in both
countries. This war had a profound influence on the entire Mideast.
Since then Iran has attempted to gain political influence in Iraq.
The biggest opportunity came in the last three years, when ISIS was
occupying much of Iraq, and Iraq's army was failing to eject them.
Iran trained and funded Shia militias called the Popular Mobilization
Units (PMUs), which played a major role in expelling ISIS from the
country. This gave Iran a great deal of influence in the country.
****
**** Confessional governments in Lebanon and Iraq
****
There were generational crisis wars throughout the region in the 1970s
and 1980s. The Iran-Iraq war pitted Arabs against Persians.
Lebanon's civil war was related to Syria's civil war, which pitted
Arabs against Shia/Alawites who, in turn, were aligned with Iran.
Iran has enormous political influence in Lebanon through its puppet
militia Hezbollah, which is the military arm of the Shias in Lebanon.
Iran and Syria came out of their respective civil wars with extremely
bloody repression of their enemies. In Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini in 1988 ordered the torture, rape and massacre of tens of
thousands of political prisoners and political enemies. In Syria,
Bashar al-Assad is still conducting genocide and ethnic cleansing of
his political enemies, the Arab Sunnis.
In my recent article on Lebanon,
I
described how Lebanon's constitution was written to split control of
government institutions (prime minister, president, parliament) into
three sects, Sunni Muslim, Maronite Christian, and Shia Muslim,
respectively. The purpose of this form of government was to
present the kind of violence that has occurred in Iran and Syria.
It turns out that this is called a "confessional system of
government," where power is divided based on sectarian affiliation or
confession. So after the dictator Saddam Hussein was ousted by the
Americans in 2003, Iraq adopted a confessional form of government for
the same reason.
The confessional form of government has worked fairly well in both
Iraq and Lebanon, because its prevented the kind of massive violence
that's been occurring in Iran and Syria.
However, rioters in both Iraq and Lebanon are protesting against their
governments for the same two reasons: First, corruption, the
sectarian-based divisions give the sects too much financial power over
their respective institutions, and allow them to steal as much money
as they like. And second, Iran has too much influence, and the
country is serving Iran's needs instead of its own.
Both countries are in extreme poverty, and protesters are giving
both of those reasons as the cause.
Iran's dream for several years has been full control of the "Shia
crescent" -- Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, including an open
highway from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea.
This is all falling apart now, with anti-Iran protests in Iraq and Lebanon,
and loss of influence in Syria.
****
**** Global protests -- around the world
****
Winston Churchill's history of World War II describes the
obvious "Gathering Storm" that preceded the war, making it apparent
that war was coming.
Today we see a similar Gathering Storm -- regional wars, trade wars,
surging xenophobia and nationalism in almost every nation, and
in recent months a surge in street protests. Just today, Pakistan
had to be added to the list of countries experiencing
major anti-government street protests.
The street protests in Chile have been going on for months, and have
forced Chile to cancel plans to hold two international conferences.
One was an economic conference where Donald Trump and Xi Jinping were
supposed to attend and sign a trade deal, and the other was a climate
change conference.
As part of its coverage of the Chile street protests, the did an
interesting story on the spread of global protests.
![[Image: BbcGlobalProtests-191030.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/BbcGlobalProtests-191030.jpg)
Countries experiencing major anti-government street protests. Top row (L-R): Barcelona/ClimateChange/Russia; Middle row: Bolivia/HongKong/Iraq; Bottom row: Ecuador/Chile/Lebanon (BBC)
The BBC noted that the number of countries with large protests has
grown dramatically in the last few months.
The BBC report provided a one or two sentence summary for each
country. Here they are (my transcription):
All of the protests are based on worsening economies, and that's
happening because the growing debt bubble days have largely ended, and
so there is much less money in the world than there used to be,
meaning that there are many more people who cannot get money to buy
food with.
The world is being held together with duct tape and rubber bands, and
at some point a rubber band will snap, and that will lead to the first
declaration of war, and an escalating cycle of wars.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over
100 source references, $7.00
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Baghdad, Umm Qasr port,
Iran, Iran/Iraq war, Great Iraqi Revolution (1920),
Saddam Hussein, Popular Mobilization Units, PMUs,
Lebanon, confessional government, Hezbollah, Syria,
Winston Churchill, Chile, Pakistan,
Barcelona, Russia; Bolivia, HongKong, Ecuador
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq
- History of the Iran/Iraq war
- Confessional governments in Lebanon and Iraq
- Global protests -- around the world
****
**** Anti-Iran, anti-government protests spread across Iraq
****
Anti-government protesters stand on a building in Baghdad last week (CNN)
Tens of thousands of protesters gathered in the capital city Baghdad
and cities across Iraq on Saturday to continue anti-government and
anti-Iran protests that began in early October.
In the Umm Qasr port, which is in southern Iraq, south of the city of
Basra, hundreds of people were wounded in clashes between security
forces and protesters, as protesters set up blockades and burned tires
to shut down the port. Operations at the port, which receives the
vast bulk of Iraq's imports of grain, vegetable oils and sugar, have
been at a complete standstill since Wednesday.
The protests are similar to those that I described last week in
Lebanon. ( "21-Oct-19 World View -- Massive anti-government street protests paralyze Lebanon"
)
Like Lebanon, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, like America in
the 1960s, following the Iran/Iraq war (1980-88), which was a
Persian-Arab war. Today's protests are not sectarian (anti-Sunni vs
anti-Shia) but are anti-government, and particularly against massive
government corruption.
****
**** History of the Iran/Iraq war
****
Most generational crisis wars in the Mideast occurred in the
context of World War I and the collapse of the Ottoman empire.
Iraq's generational crisis war was the 1920 Great Iraqi Revolution,
which was a watershed event in Iraqi history. It was not a sectarian
(Sunni vs Shia) war. Instead, the entire country Sunnis, Shias,
tribes and cities were united in fighting the British colonists.
Sixty years later, in 1980, Iraq's dictator Saddam Hussein launched
an invasion of Iraq. This following Iran's revolution in 1979, and
Saddam thought Iran would be weakened for an easy conquest. Instead,
Saddam's invasion united the Iranians.
The Iran/Iraq war was one of the longest and bloodiest wars of the
20th century. Chemical weapons and large-scale missile attacks were
used. There were millions of casualties and refugees in both
countries. This war had a profound influence on the entire Mideast.
Since then Iran has attempted to gain political influence in Iraq.
The biggest opportunity came in the last three years, when ISIS was
occupying much of Iraq, and Iraq's army was failing to eject them.
Iran trained and funded Shia militias called the Popular Mobilization
Units (PMUs), which played a major role in expelling ISIS from the
country. This gave Iran a great deal of influence in the country.
****
**** Confessional governments in Lebanon and Iraq
****
There were generational crisis wars throughout the region in the 1970s
and 1980s. The Iran-Iraq war pitted Arabs against Persians.
Lebanon's civil war was related to Syria's civil war, which pitted
Arabs against Shia/Alawites who, in turn, were aligned with Iran.
Iran has enormous political influence in Lebanon through its puppet
militia Hezbollah, which is the military arm of the Shias in Lebanon.
Iran and Syria came out of their respective civil wars with extremely
bloody repression of their enemies. In Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini in 1988 ordered the torture, rape and massacre of tens of
thousands of political prisoners and political enemies. In Syria,
Bashar al-Assad is still conducting genocide and ethnic cleansing of
his political enemies, the Arab Sunnis.
In my recent article on Lebanon,
I
described how Lebanon's constitution was written to split control of
government institutions (prime minister, president, parliament) into
three sects, Sunni Muslim, Maronite Christian, and Shia Muslim,
respectively. The purpose of this form of government was to
present the kind of violence that has occurred in Iran and Syria.
It turns out that this is called a "confessional system of
government," where power is divided based on sectarian affiliation or
confession. So after the dictator Saddam Hussein was ousted by the
Americans in 2003, Iraq adopted a confessional form of government for
the same reason.
The confessional form of government has worked fairly well in both
Iraq and Lebanon, because its prevented the kind of massive violence
that's been occurring in Iran and Syria.
However, rioters in both Iraq and Lebanon are protesting against their
governments for the same two reasons: First, corruption, the
sectarian-based divisions give the sects too much financial power over
their respective institutions, and allow them to steal as much money
as they like. And second, Iran has too much influence, and the
country is serving Iran's needs instead of its own.
Both countries are in extreme poverty, and protesters are giving
both of those reasons as the cause.
Iran's dream for several years has been full control of the "Shia
crescent" -- Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, including an open
highway from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea.
This is all falling apart now, with anti-Iran protests in Iraq and Lebanon,
and loss of influence in Syria.
****
**** Global protests -- around the world
****
Winston Churchill's history of World War II describes the
obvious "Gathering Storm" that preceded the war, making it apparent
that war was coming.
Today we see a similar Gathering Storm -- regional wars, trade wars,
surging xenophobia and nationalism in almost every nation, and
in recent months a surge in street protests. Just today, Pakistan
had to be added to the list of countries experiencing
major anti-government street protests.
The street protests in Chile have been going on for months, and have
forced Chile to cancel plans to hold two international conferences.
One was an economic conference where Donald Trump and Xi Jinping were
supposed to attend and sign a trade deal, and the other was a climate
change conference.
As part of its coverage of the Chile street protests, the did an
interesting story on the spread of global protests.
Countries experiencing major anti-government street protests. Top row (L-R): Barcelona/ClimateChange/Russia; Middle row: Bolivia/HongKong/Iraq; Bottom row: Ecuador/Chile/Lebanon (BBC)
The BBC noted that the number of countries with large protests has
grown dramatically in the last few months.
The BBC report provided a one or two sentence summary for each
country. Here they are (my transcription):
- In Lebanon, it started with the introduction of new charges
for phone calls on WhatsApp. On Tuesday after two weeks of protests,
prime minister Saad Hariri stood down.
- In Chile, a 4% rise in subway fares brought a million people there
out into the street.
- Ecuador's government has been forced to repeal a bill that would
have ended fuel subsidies.
- In Bolivia, they've been fighting street battles since the
election on October 20. President Morales is trying to hang on for a
fourth term.
- In Hong Kong, the unrest has moved well beyond the Extradition
Bill that sparked the protests, and is now being driven by a much
wider set of grievances.
- In Iraq, thousands have defied a curfew to demand more jobs,
better public services and an end to corruption. Some 200 people have
died there so far.
- In Russia, it was the exclusion of opposition candidates from
council elections.
- In Barcelona Spain, the jailing of separatist leaders from
Catalonia.
- And across the world in recent week,s we've had recent climate
change protests in more than 200 countries.
All of the protests are based on worsening economies, and that's
happening because the growing debt bubble days have largely ended, and
so there is much less money in the world than there used to be,
meaning that there are many more people who cannot get money to buy
food with.
The world is being held together with duct tape and rubber bands, and
at some point a rubber band will snap, and that will lead to the first
declaration of war, and an escalating cycle of wars.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1) Paperback: 153 pages, over
100 source references, $7.00
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/
Sources:
- Protesters slaughtered, Iran tightens grip: 'We don't have any media spotlight on this,' says Middle East expert (Fox News, 1-Nov-2019)
- Iraqis pour into streets for biggest protest day since Saddam (Reuters, 1-Nov-2019)
- Pompeo says Iraqi government should listen to protesters (Reuters, 1-Nov-2019)
- Enraged Iraqi Protesters Blame Iran for Killings (Foreign Policy, 1-Nov-2019)
- Iran Is Losing the Middle East, Protests in Lebanon and Iraq Show (Foreign Policy, 22-Oct-2019)
- 'Fear factor is broken': protesters demand removal of Iraqi government (Guardian, London, 1-Nov-2019)
- Iraq / Lebanon / As protests rock Baghdad and Beirut, Iran digs in (Reuters, 1-Nov-2019)
- The Arab/Muslim World: Iran-Iraq War (1979 - 1988) (Jewish Virtual Library)
- Iran and Iraq remember war that cost more than a million lives (Guardian, London, 23-Sep-2010)
- Iran-Iraq War / The Imposed War (1980-1988) (Global Security)
- Iraq / Lebanon / Iran / Protests toppled two governments in three days, but the fight is only beginning (CNN, 2-Nov-2019)
- Why is Iran so afraid of Iraqi and Lebanese anti-government protests? (NBC News, 2-Nov-2019)
- Iraqi protesters block major port near Basra as unrest continues (Al-Jazeera, 2-Nov-2019)
- ‘All of Them Are Thieves’: Iraqis Defy Security Forces to Protest Corruption (New York Times, 25-Oct-2019)
Related Articles:
- Massive anti-government street protests paralyze Lebanon (21-Oct-2019)
- Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war (09-Sep-2018)
- Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)
- Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock (16-Feb-2005)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Baghdad, Umm Qasr port,
Iran, Iran/Iraq war, Great Iraqi Revolution (1920),
Saddam Hussein, Popular Mobilization Units, PMUs,
Lebanon, confessional government, Hezbollah, Syria,
Winston Churchill, Chile, Pakistan,
Barcelona, Russia; Bolivia, HongKong, Ecuador
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
