11-07-2019, 08:14 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2019, 08:56 AM by John J. Xenakis.)
** 07-Nov-2019 58 years vs 80 years
The 80 year span is a completely different thing from the span in
the 58 Year Hypothesis.
The 58 Year Hypothesis applies to any situation where a catastrophic
event occurs that affects the entire population.
Focusing on the crisis war cycle, 58 years is the length of time from
the end of the crisis war -- more specifically the crisis war climax
-- to the beginning of the next Fourth Turning Crisis era -- 1945 to
2003 in the current context. The 58 Years is a hard number -- it
depends ONLY on generational changes, and is not affected by events.
The 80 year span refers to something completely different -- the end
of one crisis war to the end of the next crisis war -- 1945 to 2025 in
the current context. However, this is NOT a hard number, since it
depends on the start and length of the crisis war, and that depends on
the time when the Regeneracy occurs, which is an external event at
variable times. So the 80 year span can become a 70 year span or a 90
year span, depending on when the Regeneracy occurs.
(11-05-2019, 12:06 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Yes, I think that the 80 year span is a good theory because it is
> both simple and inevitable. That elder generation had been fading
> from public life/public influence due to its aging, and now that
> generation has begun to rapidly disappear. I recall a description
> of age 80 as the "fragility barrier"-an individual's body has
> become quite fragile, and he is living on borrowed time, in
> effect.
The 80 year span is a completely different thing from the span in
the 58 Year Hypothesis.
The 58 Year Hypothesis applies to any situation where a catastrophic
event occurs that affects the entire population.
Focusing on the crisis war cycle, 58 years is the length of time from
the end of the crisis war -- more specifically the crisis war climax
-- to the beginning of the next Fourth Turning Crisis era -- 1945 to
2003 in the current context. The 58 Years is a hard number -- it
depends ONLY on generational changes, and is not affected by events.
The 80 year span refers to something completely different -- the end
of one crisis war to the end of the next crisis war -- 1945 to 2025 in
the current context. However, this is NOT a hard number, since it
depends on the start and length of the crisis war, and that depends on
the time when the Regeneracy occurs, which is an external event at
variable times. So the 80 year span can become a 70 year span or a 90
year span, depending on when the Regeneracy occurs.
Code:
|-----------------------------------------|-------|......|
| | | War |
| 4T Regeneracy Climax2
| Recovery Awakening Unraveling | Crisis |
Climax1 Climax1+58 Climax1+80?
1945 2003 2025?