11-08-2019, 08:39 AM
** 07-Nov-2019 World View: Russia and Turkey
With regard to Russia and Assad, it's the other way around. The war
would have fizzled out quickly if it hadn't been for Assad. Assad is
a sociopathic monster, who wants to finish his father's job of
exterminating the Sunni Arabs. Even so, he would have lost to the
Arabs, except that he got the Russians to support him in return for
giving Russia two military bases inside Syria, the Tartus naval base
and Hmeimim airbase. Putin is completely lacking in any morality
whatsoever, but he isn't the same kind of sociopathic monster as
Assad. For Putin, it's just opportunistic genocide and ethnic
cleansing.
Turkey obviously doesn't want any part of the war in Syria, but
they've been forced into it because of the flood of millions of
refugees, and because of the threat of a Kurdish state in Syria on the
Turkish border. For that reason, Turkey is involved in the war, but
as little as possible.
Your reference to Syria as a "preparation ground" for a much larger
war is a very appealing analogy -- thinking of a growing mass of
flammable tinder on the ground, waiting for a match to light it.
However, I think it's now months away, not decades.
I've written many times about the many wars between Russia and Turkey.
** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151125
Nonetheless, I have a great deal of trouble saying with certainty that
there will be a crisis war between Turkey and Russia. Here are some
issues:
On the other hand, the war between the Christian Armenians and the
Turkic Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh could expand into a larger war
between Russia and Turkey, but I wouldn't expect that, since it's
an Awakening era for both countries.
So you may be right that there will be a generational crisis war
between Russia and Turkey. I may have suggested it myself in the
past. But it's complicated, and certainly not an open and shut case.
One more thing: You say "Russia and Turkey were supporting opposing
sides in these conflicts," and that's true, but it's still not a war
between Russia and Turkey. Particularly what we've seen recently,
Russia and Turkey have supported opposing sides in Syria but even more
than that they've cooperated with each other to prevent the war from
expanding.
DaKardii Wrote:> John, I have a few things to say about "18-Oct-19 World View --
> Generational analysis of Turkey-Syria war and ceasefire
> agreement," which can be found at
> http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...191018.htm.
> At one point in the article, you state: ...
> You seem to be implying that Russia is the main external force
> pushing Assad to continue the war, which is a non-crisis war for
> Syria, well past its natural ending point. You also seem to be
> implying that Turkey is playing a similar role regarding the
> rebels. If that's the case, then I agree with both of those
> implications.
With regard to Russia and Assad, it's the other way around. The war
would have fizzled out quickly if it hadn't been for Assad. Assad is
a sociopathic monster, who wants to finish his father's job of
exterminating the Sunni Arabs. Even so, he would have lost to the
Arabs, except that he got the Russians to support him in return for
giving Russia two military bases inside Syria, the Tartus naval base
and Hmeimim airbase. Putin is completely lacking in any morality
whatsoever, but he isn't the same kind of sociopathic monster as
Assad. For Putin, it's just opportunistic genocide and ethnic
cleansing.
Turkey obviously doesn't want any part of the war in Syria, but
they've been forced into it because of the flood of millions of
refugees, and because of the threat of a Kurdish state in Syria on the
Turkish border. For that reason, Turkey is involved in the war, but
as little as possible.
DaKardii Wrote:> In my opinion, the war in Syria is causing the entire Middle East
> to slowly be transformed into a "preparation ground" for a much
> larger conflict between Russia and Turkey. Turkey is attempting to
> expand (its influence or territory) southward in hopes of bringing
> enough of the region under its influence or control, because it's
> going to need that if it expects to win a war against
> Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is attempting to expand (its influence
> or territory) into the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Balkans to
> create buffer zones against Turkey, while also using third parties
> such as Iran, Syria, and even Saudi Arabia to curb Turkey's own
> expansionism.
> This upcoming conflict will be many decades in the making. In my
> opinion, it can all be traced back to the end of the last war
> Russia and Turkey fought: World War I, which was also a crisis war
> for both countries. World War I led to the collapse of both the
> Russian and the Ottoman Empires. Both countries lost large amounts
> of territory and had their monarchies overthrown. Neither country
> ever got over the loss of their empires, even with new regimes in
> power. This was made clear both during WWII and during the Cold
> War, although during those times neither country was in the mood
> to fight another round. They were in generational High, Awakening,
> and Unraveling eras back then. The collapse of the USSR was a
> turning point. Since then, several conflicts that can be seen as
> part of a wider conflict between Russia and Turkey have broken
> out. Nagorno-Karabakh, Yugoslavia, the wars in the Northern
> Caucasus, Ukraine, and now Syria.
> It doesn't matter who is in power in either country. Conflict is
> inevitable. Russia and Turkey were supporting opposing sides in
> these conflicts before anyone had even heard of either Vladimir
> Putin or Recep Erdogan. The foreign policies of those two leaders
> are not the disease itself, but rather symptoms of the
> disease.
Your reference to Syria as a "preparation ground" for a much larger
war is a very appealing analogy -- thinking of a growing mass of
flammable tinder on the ground, waiting for a match to light it.
However, I think it's now months away, not decades.
I've written many times about the many wars between Russia and Turkey.
** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151125
Nonetheless, I have a great deal of trouble saying with certainty that
there will be a crisis war between Turkey and Russia. Here are some
issues:
- Before the Ottoman conquest, Anatolia was the Orthodox Christian
Byzantine Empire, and the Muslims and Orthodox Christians have largely
coexisted peacefully since then.
- Although WW I was a devastating crisis war for both Russia and Turkey,
it was not a war they fought against each other.
- They did fight each other in the Crimean War, but that was less
a war with each other and more a war over Jerusalem, as Russia considered
itself the protector of Jerusalem since the fall of the Byzantine Empire.
- China is arresting millions of Uighur Muslims and using them as
slave labor for its war machine. This is a potentially explosive
issue for Turkey, since the Uighurs and the other Muslim ethnic groups
in Central Asia are mostly Turkic. Furthermore, Russia has a stake in
protecting Central Asia from China, because those countries were part
of the Soviet Empire. So Russia and Turkey are aligned in Central
Asia against China.
On the other hand, the war between the Christian Armenians and the
Turkic Azerbaijanis in Nagorno-Karabakh could expand into a larger war
between Russia and Turkey, but I wouldn't expect that, since it's
an Awakening era for both countries.
So you may be right that there will be a generational crisis war
between Russia and Turkey. I may have suggested it myself in the
past. But it's complicated, and certainly not an open and shut case.
One more thing: You say "Russia and Turkey were supporting opposing
sides in these conflicts," and that's true, but it's still not a war
between Russia and Turkey. Particularly what we've seen recently,
Russia and Turkey have supported opposing sides in Syria but even more
than that they've cooperated with each other to prevent the war from
expanding.
