11-08-2019, 02:42 PM
** 08-Nov-2019 World View: Regeracy vs Start of War
Yes, the Fourth Turning begins exactly 58 years after the climax of
the preceding crisis war. This is not event-driven. It's purely
based on generational changes. I arrived at the number 58 based on
many examples in the last 15 years.
By contrast, the Regeneracy is an event, and can occur at any time.
Here's a table that I've posted before, based on a crisis war climax
year YYYY:
Well, the "start of a war" is more a political decision than anything
else. When did World War II start? Here are some choices:
So when did WW II start?
The Regeneracy is a very important date in generational theory, since
it triggers major changes in attitudes and behaviors in the public.
By contrast, the date named as "the start date of the war" is almost
completely irrelevant, and is often not identified until years later.
I often say that the war starts with the regeneracy because it's
convenient to do so, even if it's not always precisely true. However,
I think it is almost always true that when the Regeneracy occurs, the
non-crisis war turns into a full-fledged generational crisis war.
Code:
|-----------------------------------------|-------|......|
| | | War |
| 4T Regeneracy Climax2
| Recovery Awakening Unraveling | Crisis |
Climax1 Climax1+58 Climax1+80?
1945 2003 2025?(11-08-2019, 12:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > This graph seems to imply that the fourth turning necessarily
> begins at a 58 year echo. Is that what you mean to say, including
> the implication that the timing between the end of a cycle and the
> beginning of the next crisis period is exact?
Yes, the Fourth Turning begins exactly 58 years after the climax of
the preceding crisis war. This is not event-driven. It's purely
based on generational changes. I arrived at the number 58 based on
many examples in the last 15 years.
By contrast, the Regeneracy is an event, and can occur at any time.
Here's a table that I've posted before, based on a crisis war climax
year YYYY:
Code:
Eras:
YYYY+00 to YYYY+18: Recovery era
YYYY+19 to YYYY+38: Awakening era
YYYY+39 to YYYY+58: Unraveling era
YYYY+59 to YYYY+78: Crisis era
YYYY+79 ..........: Fifth TurningCode:
Birth years of generations:
YYYY-04 to YYYY+14: Prophets
YYYY+15 to YYYY+34: Nomads
YYYY+35 to YYYY+54: Heroes
YYYY+55 to YYYY+74: Artists(11-08-2019, 12:12 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Also, it seems to imply that the regeneracy and the beginning of
> the crisis war are the same event; is that what you mean?
> I'm not arguing for or against at the moment; I'm just trying to
> get more clarification on what you're saying Generational Dynamics
> predicts.
Well, the "start of a war" is more a political decision than anything
else. When did World War II start? Here are some choices:
- US destroyed Japan's silk industry with Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in
1930
- Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931
- Italy invaded Ethiopia in 1935.
- Japan invaded China in 1937
- Germany invaded Poland in September 1939
- Japan abrogated treaty of commerce with the US in January, 1940.
- Japan signed the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy on
September 27, 1940.
- US established embargo on oil and gasoline exports to Japan on
August 1, 1941.
- Japan bombed Pearl Harbor in September 1941
So when did WW II start?
The Regeneracy is a very important date in generational theory, since
it triggers major changes in attitudes and behaviors in the public.
By contrast, the date named as "the start date of the war" is almost
completely irrelevant, and is often not identified until years later.
I often say that the war starts with the regeneracy because it's
convenient to do so, even if it's not always precisely true. However,
I think it is almost always true that when the Regeneracy occurs, the
non-crisis war turns into a full-fledged generational crisis war.
