11-11-2019, 03:58 PM
** 10-Nov-2019 World View: Hyperinflation
Yes and yes. I've told you a million times.
Do you recognize the irony that you've been saying exactly the
same thing, using the same words, for 15 years, changing only the
numbers each year? And still there's no hyperinflation, and barely
any inflation at all.
No, it's an ocean, not just a swimming pool.
Back in 2008, I was writing a lot about the global debt bubble. As I
wrote at the time, the Bank of International Settlements said that
there are over $1 quadrillion ($1,000 trillion) worth of credit
derivatives and other structured finance securities in the portfolios
of financial institutions around the world.
Money created through debt is just as real as the money "printed" by
the US government. If your $50K home increases in value during a real
estate bubble to $500K, and you borrow $400K against your home, then
you can spend that money on cars, groceries, sex, or whatever you
want. It's the same money.
So the debt bubble injected over $1 quadrillion of money into the
global economy without causing inflation. And you're telling me that
that if the Fed does $4 trillion in QE, it will cause hyperinflation?
Bullsh-t.
Really, this is the same argument we were having ten years ago.
There's not gonna be any hyperinflation. Period.
Krugman's an idiot. He got the Nobel prize because he hated Bush.
There's a good point to be made here. Most economists are idiots,
whether on the right or the left. The only reasons their forecasts
are ever right is because they make the same forecasts every year, and
that's right most of the time. But if something unusual happens they
don't have the vaguest clue.
"There were two economists who were shipwrecked on a desert
island. They had no money but over the next three years, they made
millions of dollars selling their hats to each other."
So listen to Krugman if you'd like. Or dump a bowl of oatmeal on your
head. They're roughly equivalent.
vincecate Wrote:> Do you think the Fed can print as much as they want without risk
> of hyperinflation?
> The US government budget is around $4 trillion per year. If the
> Fed prints $1 trillion every year you think it would be fine?
Yes and yes. I've told you a million times.
Do you recognize the irony that you've been saying exactly the
same thing, using the same words, for 15 years, changing only the
numbers each year? And still there's no hyperinflation, and barely
any inflation at all.
vincecate Wrote:> I expect this "Not QE" to print more than $1 trillion in 12
> months. What about $2 trillion, or $3 or $4 trillion per year? If
> there is no big risk from printing money, should the US just do
> away with taxes?
> The numbers are bigger for the USA than Argentina or Venezuela,
> with the US being a reserve currency for the world, maybe even as
> different as a bathtub and a swimming pool, but it is not as
> different as a bathtub and the ocean. I do expect the phenomenon
> to work the same way, just on a bigger scale.
No, it's an ocean, not just a swimming pool.
Back in 2008, I was writing a lot about the global debt bubble. As I
wrote at the time, the Bank of International Settlements said that
there are over $1 quadrillion ($1,000 trillion) worth of credit
derivatives and other structured finance securities in the portfolios
of financial institutions around the world.
Money created through debt is just as real as the money "printed" by
the US government. If your $50K home increases in value during a real
estate bubble to $500K, and you borrow $400K against your home, then
you can spend that money on cars, groceries, sex, or whatever you
want. It's the same money.
So the debt bubble injected over $1 quadrillion of money into the
global economy without causing inflation. And you're telling me that
that if the Fed does $4 trillion in QE, it will cause hyperinflation?
Bullsh-t.
Really, this is the same argument we were having ten years ago.
There's not gonna be any hyperinflation. Period.
vincecate Wrote:> Even Krugman, who very much likes money printing (nobody would
> call him a Gold Bug) thinks the USA could only get away with a few
> percent of money printing per year without inflation spiraling out
> of control.
> https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/0...DbMzpgAg8k
Krugman's an idiot. He got the Nobel prize because he hated Bush.
There's a good point to be made here. Most economists are idiots,
whether on the right or the left. The only reasons their forecasts
are ever right is because they make the same forecasts every year, and
that's right most of the time. But if something unusual happens they
don't have the vaguest clue.
"There were two economists who were shipwrecked on a desert
island. They had no money but over the next three years, they made
millions of dollars selling their hats to each other."
So listen to Krugman if you'd like. Or dump a bowl of oatmeal on your
head. They're roughly equivalent.
