11-14-2019, 11:07 PM
*** 15-Nov-19 World View -- Ouster of Bolivia's president Evo Morales evokes memories of Ché Guevara
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Ouster of Bolivia's president Evo Morales evokes memories of Ché Guevara
****
![[Image: g191114b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g191114b.jpg)
Opposition politician Jeanine Áñez, who declared herself interim president of Bolivia after resignation of Evo Morales (AP)
Bolivia's far-left President Evo Morales resigned on Sunday after
nearly 14 years in power as the country's first indigenous president.
The resignation follows a heavily disputed re-election on October 20,
leading to weeks of riots and chaos.
Bolivia's army generals last weekend called for him to step down,
after they fought angry anti-Morales protesters for weeks. On Sunday,
Morales resigned on nationwide tv, saying he resigned willingly "so
there would be no more bloodshed." He also said that he felt forced
to stand down because his supporters and his family near his home in
Cochabamba were being harassed, persecuted and threatened.
After resigning, he fled to Cochabamba, which is a stronghold of his
indigenous supporters. From there, he has fled to Mexico, where
he has been given asylum. Now Morales is calling the situation
a coup.
Now the anti-Morales protesters are being met by pro-Morales
protesters in the capital city La Paz and across the country. An
opposition leader, Jeanine Áñez, has declared herself to be interim
president, and has promised new elections.
Moreno's political party, Movement to Socialism (MAS), is evoking the
memory of 1960s Marxist revolutionary Ché Guevara. Guevara launched a
revolutionary coup in Bolivia in 1965. Guevara's guerrilla movement
was defeated by the Bolivian army, and Guevara himself was killed on
October 8, 1967, allegedly with the help of the United States. MAS
today uses Guevara as a symbol for opposition to United States
intervention.
****
**** Racial division in Latin America
****
As usual, racism is the dominating factor in Bolivia's society.
Society is split between the descendants of the Spanish invaders,
along with the mestizos, versus the indigenous groups, led by the
far-left indigenous president Evo Morales. According to the CIA
Factbook, the first group comprise 68% of the population, while the
indigenous people are 20%.
Although the percentages vary, this same kind of European/indigenous
split occurs in populations throughout Latin America. This is
true of Peru, Chile and Ecuador, which all currently have
widespread protests. The same is true of Venezuela.
A common thread running through all these countries is that the
European descendant population is market dominant, while the
indigenous population, often called Amerindians, is marginalized, with
large disparities in wealth and income. Somebody ought to figure out
why this always happens.
In Bolivia, Morales has been in power since 2006. The indigenous
minority was marginalized under earlier leaders. Morales, the
country's first indigenous leader, is credited with substantially
improving Bolivia's economy, and particularly reducing poverty
substantially among the indigenous population. This of course
explains why the population of Morales in the indigenous population
goes well beyond racial affinity.
(As an aside, it's worth noting that in this generational Crisis era,
there are widespread protests not only in Latin America, but also in
countries around the world, including Hong Kong, Iraq, Lebanon,
Catalonia, Kazakhstan, Libya and Egypt.)
Today a major regional issue is that Morales is one of the few leaders
in the world aligned with the Venezuelan thug Nicolás Maduro, who is
flooding the entire region with millions of Venezuelan migrants who
are fleeing violence and starvation. In some cases, Morales is
deporting Venezuelans back to Maduro and Venezuela to be punished,
which is increasing tensions in Bolivia.
****
**** Morales' grab for power
****
![[Image: g191114c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g191114c.jpg)
Bolivia's far-left president Evo Morales announced his resignation on national television on Sunday (AP)
What Morales has done is similar to what I've seen in country after
country in Africa. An African warlord comes to power, usually under a
constitution that limits him to two terms. But he uses the time in
office to take control of the courts and the main institutions, and
uses corruption to illegally enrich all his cronies, so that the
entire government is tied to him and dependent on him. Their wealth
depends on the leader staying in power, and a new leader would expose
them to criminal corruption charges and jailing. The leader uses
torture, beatings, rape, and jailing of the opposition to make sure
that he stays in power. This is standard fare in country after
country in Africa.
Evo Morales has been in power since 2006. The constitution prohibited
him from running for a fourth term in 2019. In 2016 he ran a national
referendum to authorize his running for a fourth term, and he lost the
referendum. The constitutional court, which is widely believed to
have been corrupted by Morales, rejected the referendum result, so
that he could run for a fourth term anyway, in the October 20 election.
It's also widely believed that Morales and his cronies have been
corrupting the voting system during the last few years. When the
election finally took place last month, the election commission
stopped in the middle of counting the votes, when it appeared that
Morales was going to lose. They started counting votes again the next
day, and then suddenly Morales was winning. Subsequently, the
Organization of American States (OAS) did an investigation and found
numerous irregularities in the election, so they called for new
elections. This lead to the protests and rioting, and Morales'
decision to step down.
After fleeing to Mexico, Morales changed his mind and announced that
his resignation was forced, and that this was a coup. This is not
surprising since, as I described above, there are typically many of
his corrupt cronies in government who would be subject to criminal
prosecution under a new leadership, and they undoubtedly demanded that
he rescind his resignation. Politicians in other far-left Latin
American countries -- Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba -- are also calling
the resignation a coup, and are demanding that he be reinstated. On
the other hand, Brazil, Colombia and the United States are supporting
the opposition leader, Jeanine Áñez.
Along with Morales, the next two successors, vice-President Alvaro
García and Senate President Adriana Salvatierra, also resigned,
leaving a power vacuum in Bolivia. There are fears of more riots and
violence and that the army may step in to maintain order.
The situation in Bolivia today is febrile and chaotic, with continuing
clashes between European and indigenous factions, and the possibility
of greater violence.
****
**** Brief generational history of Bolivia
****
Bolivia's history is dominated by its invaders -- various indigenous
tribes, then the Incas, and then the Spaniards -- who enslaved them
and used them to mine and extract minerals, for shipment back
to Europe.
Bolivia gained independence in 1825 with Simón Bolívar's war of
independence. The next generational crisis war was the War of the
Pacific (1879-1884), where Bolivia lost its entire coastline to Chile,
turning it into a landlocked country.
The next generational crisis war began in 1965 with a guerrilla
movement mounted from Cuba and headed by Maj. Ernesto "Ché" Guevara, a
well-known Argentine Marxist revolutionary. With the aid of
U.S. military advisers, the Bolivian army smashed the guerrilla
movement, and the crisis war climax occurred on October 8, 1967, when
Guevara was captured and killed.
The death of Ché Guevara is still referenced today by Moreno's
Movement to Socialism (MAS), and by indigenous activists in general,
using it as a symbol for indigenous activism, and for opposition to
United States intervention.
There is a serious fault line between the descendants of Spanish
invaders + mestizos versus the indigenous groups. The tensions are
growing, but I don't expect them to grow into a civil war, because
it's too soon.
It's been only 52 years since Ché Guevara was killed, and so there are
still many survivors alive today who lived through and remember that
climactic battle and don't want to see it repeated. From the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, the "58-Year Hypothesis" applies, which
means that a full-scale civil war will not begin before 2025
(1967+58). In the meantime, there will be riots and low-level clashes
in the next few days or weeks, but I expect them to fizzle reasonably
quickly.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bolivia, Evo Morales, Movement to Socialism, MAS,
Ernesto Ché Guevara, Jeanine Áñez,
Cochabamba, Mexico, Amerindians,
Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro,
Organization of American States, OAS,
Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba,
Alvaro García, Adriana Salvatierra,
War of the Pacific
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Ouster of Bolivia's president Evo Morales evokes memories of Ché Guevara
- Racial division in Latin America
- Morales' grab for power
- Brief generational history of Bolivia
****
**** Ouster of Bolivia's president Evo Morales evokes memories of Ché Guevara
****
Opposition politician Jeanine Áñez, who declared herself interim president of Bolivia after resignation of Evo Morales (AP)
Bolivia's far-left President Evo Morales resigned on Sunday after
nearly 14 years in power as the country's first indigenous president.
The resignation follows a heavily disputed re-election on October 20,
leading to weeks of riots and chaos.
Bolivia's army generals last weekend called for him to step down,
after they fought angry anti-Morales protesters for weeks. On Sunday,
Morales resigned on nationwide tv, saying he resigned willingly "so
there would be no more bloodshed." He also said that he felt forced
to stand down because his supporters and his family near his home in
Cochabamba were being harassed, persecuted and threatened.
After resigning, he fled to Cochabamba, which is a stronghold of his
indigenous supporters. From there, he has fled to Mexico, where
he has been given asylum. Now Morales is calling the situation
a coup.
Now the anti-Morales protesters are being met by pro-Morales
protesters in the capital city La Paz and across the country. An
opposition leader, Jeanine Áñez, has declared herself to be interim
president, and has promised new elections.
Moreno's political party, Movement to Socialism (MAS), is evoking the
memory of 1960s Marxist revolutionary Ché Guevara. Guevara launched a
revolutionary coup in Bolivia in 1965. Guevara's guerrilla movement
was defeated by the Bolivian army, and Guevara himself was killed on
October 8, 1967, allegedly with the help of the United States. MAS
today uses Guevara as a symbol for opposition to United States
intervention.
****
**** Racial division in Latin America
****
As usual, racism is the dominating factor in Bolivia's society.
Society is split between the descendants of the Spanish invaders,
along with the mestizos, versus the indigenous groups, led by the
far-left indigenous president Evo Morales. According to the CIA
Factbook, the first group comprise 68% of the population, while the
indigenous people are 20%.
Although the percentages vary, this same kind of European/indigenous
split occurs in populations throughout Latin America. This is
true of Peru, Chile and Ecuador, which all currently have
widespread protests. The same is true of Venezuela.
A common thread running through all these countries is that the
European descendant population is market dominant, while the
indigenous population, often called Amerindians, is marginalized, with
large disparities in wealth and income. Somebody ought to figure out
why this always happens.
In Bolivia, Morales has been in power since 2006. The indigenous
minority was marginalized under earlier leaders. Morales, the
country's first indigenous leader, is credited with substantially
improving Bolivia's economy, and particularly reducing poverty
substantially among the indigenous population. This of course
explains why the population of Morales in the indigenous population
goes well beyond racial affinity.
(As an aside, it's worth noting that in this generational Crisis era,
there are widespread protests not only in Latin America, but also in
countries around the world, including Hong Kong, Iraq, Lebanon,
Catalonia, Kazakhstan, Libya and Egypt.)
Today a major regional issue is that Morales is one of the few leaders
in the world aligned with the Venezuelan thug Nicolás Maduro, who is
flooding the entire region with millions of Venezuelan migrants who
are fleeing violence and starvation. In some cases, Morales is
deporting Venezuelans back to Maduro and Venezuela to be punished,
which is increasing tensions in Bolivia.
****
**** Morales' grab for power
****
Bolivia's far-left president Evo Morales announced his resignation on national television on Sunday (AP)
What Morales has done is similar to what I've seen in country after
country in Africa. An African warlord comes to power, usually under a
constitution that limits him to two terms. But he uses the time in
office to take control of the courts and the main institutions, and
uses corruption to illegally enrich all his cronies, so that the
entire government is tied to him and dependent on him. Their wealth
depends on the leader staying in power, and a new leader would expose
them to criminal corruption charges and jailing. The leader uses
torture, beatings, rape, and jailing of the opposition to make sure
that he stays in power. This is standard fare in country after
country in Africa.
Evo Morales has been in power since 2006. The constitution prohibited
him from running for a fourth term in 2019. In 2016 he ran a national
referendum to authorize his running for a fourth term, and he lost the
referendum. The constitutional court, which is widely believed to
have been corrupted by Morales, rejected the referendum result, so
that he could run for a fourth term anyway, in the October 20 election.
It's also widely believed that Morales and his cronies have been
corrupting the voting system during the last few years. When the
election finally took place last month, the election commission
stopped in the middle of counting the votes, when it appeared that
Morales was going to lose. They started counting votes again the next
day, and then suddenly Morales was winning. Subsequently, the
Organization of American States (OAS) did an investigation and found
numerous irregularities in the election, so they called for new
elections. This lead to the protests and rioting, and Morales'
decision to step down.
After fleeing to Mexico, Morales changed his mind and announced that
his resignation was forced, and that this was a coup. This is not
surprising since, as I described above, there are typically many of
his corrupt cronies in government who would be subject to criminal
prosecution under a new leadership, and they undoubtedly demanded that
he rescind his resignation. Politicians in other far-left Latin
American countries -- Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba -- are also calling
the resignation a coup, and are demanding that he be reinstated. On
the other hand, Brazil, Colombia and the United States are supporting
the opposition leader, Jeanine Áñez.
Along with Morales, the next two successors, vice-President Alvaro
García and Senate President Adriana Salvatierra, also resigned,
leaving a power vacuum in Bolivia. There are fears of more riots and
violence and that the army may step in to maintain order.
The situation in Bolivia today is febrile and chaotic, with continuing
clashes between European and indigenous factions, and the possibility
of greater violence.
****
**** Brief generational history of Bolivia
****
Bolivia's history is dominated by its invaders -- various indigenous
tribes, then the Incas, and then the Spaniards -- who enslaved them
and used them to mine and extract minerals, for shipment back
to Europe.
Bolivia gained independence in 1825 with Simón Bolívar's war of
independence. The next generational crisis war was the War of the
Pacific (1879-1884), where Bolivia lost its entire coastline to Chile,
turning it into a landlocked country.
The next generational crisis war began in 1965 with a guerrilla
movement mounted from Cuba and headed by Maj. Ernesto "Ché" Guevara, a
well-known Argentine Marxist revolutionary. With the aid of
U.S. military advisers, the Bolivian army smashed the guerrilla
movement, and the crisis war climax occurred on October 8, 1967, when
Guevara was captured and killed.
The death of Ché Guevara is still referenced today by Moreno's
Movement to Socialism (MAS), and by indigenous activists in general,
using it as a symbol for indigenous activism, and for opposition to
United States intervention.
There is a serious fault line between the descendants of Spanish
invaders + mestizos versus the indigenous groups. The tensions are
growing, but I don't expect them to grow into a civil war, because
it's too soon.
It's been only 52 years since Ché Guevara was killed, and so there are
still many survivors alive today who lived through and remember that
climactic battle and don't want to see it repeated. From the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, the "58-Year Hypothesis" applies, which
means that a full-scale civil war will not begin before 2025
(1967+58). In the meantime, there will be riots and low-level clashes
in the next few days or weeks, but I expect them to fizzle reasonably
quickly.
Sources:
- 'This Is a Military Coup': Bolivian President Evo Morales Resigns After Army Calls for His Ouster (Common Dreams, 11-Nov-2019)
- Bolivian President Evo Morales resigns amid election protests (BBC, 11-Nov-2019)
- Bolivia ex-president Evo Morales on the run as supporters clash with police, barricade roads (Fox News, 11-Nov-2019)
- Che Guevara's legacy still contentious 50 years after his death in Bolivia (Guardian, London, 5-Oct-2017)
- Evo Morales Condemns 'Coup' After Lawmaker Assumes Bolivia's Interim Presidency (NPR, 13-Nov-2019)
- Evo Morales leaves Bolivia dangerously divided (Economist, 16-Nov-2019)
- Bolivia rocked by more violent clashes as Evo Morales warns government not to ‘stain themselves with blood’ (Independent, London, 14-Nov-2019)
- Many wanted Morales out. But what happened in Bolivia was a military coup (Guardian, London, 13-Nov-2019)
- How Evo Morales lost control of Bolivia (Reuters, 14-Nov-2019)
- Bolivia crisis: Clashes as Morales supporters oppose interim rule (BBC, 14-Nov-2019)
- Russia / Why Bolivian Politics Suddenly Matters to Putin (Bloomberg, 11-Nov-2019)
- History of Bolivia (InfoPlease)
Related Articles:
- Bolivia nationalizes pension funds, lowers retirement age to 58 (12-Dec-2010)
- Bolivia accuses Chile of setting up military base near border (09-May-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bolivia, Evo Morales, Movement to Socialism, MAS,
Ernesto Ché Guevara, Jeanine Áñez,
Cochabamba, Mexico, Amerindians,
Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro,
Organization of American States, OAS,
Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba,
Alvaro García, Adriana Salvatierra,
War of the Pacific
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
