11-15-2019, 05:04 PM
(11-14-2019, 11:07 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ****
**** Brief generational history of Bolivia
****
Bolivia's history is dominated by its invaders -- various indigenous
tribes, then the Incas, and then the Spaniards -- who enslaved them
and used them to mine and extract minerals, for shipment back
to Europe.
Bolivia gained independence in 1825 with Simón Bolívar's war of
independence. The next generational crisis war was the War of the
Pacific (1879-1884), where Bolivia lost its entire coastline to Chile,
turning it into a landlocked country.
The next generational crisis war began in 1965 with a guerrilla
movement mounted from Cuba and headed by Maj. Ernesto "Ché" Guevara, a
well-known Argentine Marxist revolutionary. With the aid of
U.S. military advisers, the Bolivian army smashed the guerrilla
movement, and the crisis war climax occurred on October 8, 1967, when
Guevara was captured and killed.
The death of Ché Guevara is still referenced today by Moreno's
Movement to Socialism (MAS), and by indigenous activists in general,
using it as a symbol for indigenous activism, and for opposition to
United States intervention.
There is a serious fault line between the descendants of Spanish
invaders + mestizos versus the indigenous groups. The tensions are
growing, but I don't expect them to grow into a civil war, because
it's too soon.
It's been only 52 years since Ché Guevara was killed, and so there are
still many survivors alive today who lived through and remember that
climactic battle and don't want to see it repeated. From the point of
view of Generational Dynamics, the "58-Year Hypothesis" applies, which
means that a full-scale civil war will not begin before 2025
(1967+58). In the meantime, there will be riots and low-level clashes
in the next few days or weeks, but I expect them to fizzle reasonably
quickly.
Sources:
- 'This Is a Military Coup': Bolivian President Evo Morales Resigns After Army Calls for His Ouster (Common Dreams, 11-Nov-2019)
- Bolivian President Evo Morales resigns amid election protests (BBC, 11-Nov-2019)
- Bolivia ex-president Evo Morales on the run as supporters clash with police, barricade roads (Fox News, 11-Nov-2019)
- Che Guevara's legacy still contentious 50 years after his death in Bolivia (Guardian, London, 5-Oct-2017)
- Evo Morales Condemns 'Coup' After Lawmaker Assumes Bolivia's Interim Presidency (NPR, 13-Nov-2019)
- Evo Morales leaves Bolivia dangerously divided (Economist, 16-Nov-2019)
- Bolivia rocked by more violent clashes as Evo Morales warns government not to ‘stain themselves with blood’ (Independent, London, 14-Nov-2019)
- Many wanted Morales out. But what happened in Bolivia was a military coup (Guardian, London, 13-Nov-2019)
- How Evo Morales lost control of Bolivia (Reuters, 14-Nov-2019)
- Bolivia crisis: Clashes as Morales supporters oppose interim rule (BBC, 14-Nov-2019)
- Russia / Why Bolivian Politics Suddenly Matters to Putin (Bloomberg, 11-Nov-2019)
- History of Bolivia (InfoPlease)
Related Articles:
- Bolivia nationalizes pension funds, lowers retirement age to 58 (12-Dec-2010)
- Bolivia accuses Chile of setting up military base near border (09-May-2016)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bolivia, Evo Morales, Movement to Socialism, MAS,
Ernesto Ché Guevara, Jeanine Áñez,
Cochabamba, Mexico, Amerindians,
Peru, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro,
Organization of American States, OAS,
Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba,
Alvaro García, Adriana Salvatierra,
War of the Pacific
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John J. Xenakis
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Sorry John but this is nonsense, Bolivia's 20th Century Crisis war was obviously the Chaco War with Paraguay. Guevara's uprising was a local conflict. Regarding Global Geopolitics, Communism is simply no longer a significant ideological force in the world Since 1989.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaco_War
