11-19-2019, 07:04 PM
** 19-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong protesters folding like a cheap suit
The problem with posting anonymously and not registering, creating an
account, and posting under your own account is that claims of past
"correct" predictions cannot be verified, so are useless.
At any rate, it doesn't really matter, because the situations in
Catalonia and Hong Kong are completely different.
In Catalonia, the separatists folded like cheap suits because all
their government officials were being arrested, so they had no
leadership. Furthermore, half the population of Catalonia was opposed
to the separatist movement, and there was no group of people in Spain
outside Catalonia who were particularly sympathetic.
In Hong Kong, the government is already controlled by the CCP through
Carrie Lam, so there's no government leadership to arrest. Second,
the Hong Kong protests are organic. There were some pro-democracy MPs
or activists arrested, but they hadn't been providing leadership, so
the arrests had no effect except to turn the arrested kids into
heroes. Third, the pro-democracy protesters are generally supported
by 70-80% of the population, and there is also popular support from
Cantonese speaking people on the mainland in southern China.
There are other factors too. The Spanish politicians could promise
the Catalonians a bright future as part of Spain. But the CCP can
only promise that the Hong Kongers will be treated more and more
harshly in the future, and that they and their children will be
subjected to a full-scale brutal CCP dictatorship in 2047, with all
the oppression and atrocities that go with the CCP.
One more factor: Catalonia was always part of Spain, while Hong Kong
was part of Britain until 1997, so they remember what freedom was
like.
So I don't know if you're speaking for the CCP when you say that the
Hong Kong protesters will fold like a cheap suit, but from the point
of view of Generational Dynamics there will be at most a pause, if
that, before a new round of organic protests begin.
Guest Wrote:> I think the Hong Kongers will fold like cheap suits. Just like I
> correctly predicted about the Catalans.
The problem with posting anonymously and not registering, creating an
account, and posting under your own account is that claims of past
"correct" predictions cannot be verified, so are useless.
At any rate, it doesn't really matter, because the situations in
Catalonia and Hong Kong are completely different.
In Catalonia, the separatists folded like cheap suits because all
their government officials were being arrested, so they had no
leadership. Furthermore, half the population of Catalonia was opposed
to the separatist movement, and there was no group of people in Spain
outside Catalonia who were particularly sympathetic.
In Hong Kong, the government is already controlled by the CCP through
Carrie Lam, so there's no government leadership to arrest. Second,
the Hong Kong protests are organic. There were some pro-democracy MPs
or activists arrested, but they hadn't been providing leadership, so
the arrests had no effect except to turn the arrested kids into
heroes. Third, the pro-democracy protesters are generally supported
by 70-80% of the population, and there is also popular support from
Cantonese speaking people on the mainland in southern China.
There are other factors too. The Spanish politicians could promise
the Catalonians a bright future as part of Spain. But the CCP can
only promise that the Hong Kongers will be treated more and more
harshly in the future, and that they and their children will be
subjected to a full-scale brutal CCP dictatorship in 2047, with all
the oppression and atrocities that go with the CCP.
One more factor: Catalonia was always part of Spain, while Hong Kong
was part of Britain until 1997, so they remember what freedom was
like.
So I don't know if you're speaking for the CCP when you say that the
Hong Kong protesters will fold like a cheap suit, but from the point
of view of Generational Dynamics there will be at most a pause, if
that, before a new round of organic protests begin.
