11-25-2019, 12:09 AM
*** 25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray
****
![[Image: g191124b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g191124b.jpg)
Pro-democracy supporters celebrate huge gains in the district council elections (AP)
In what is being described as a historic election, pro-democracy
activists in Hong Kong's Pan Democracy party have won a massive
victory in electing members for local district councils. The
elections had a record turnout of 71%, while similar elections in 2015
had a turnout of just 47%. Many of those turning out this time were
young first-time voters.
Votes are still being counted. At this time (Sunday evening ET =
Monday morning in Hong Kong), the pro-democracy parties have won 201
seats, while pro-CCP parties have won only 28 seats, with 12 seats for
independents, out of a total of 452 seats. The other 221 seats have
not yet been determined at this time.
Roughly speaking, it appears that pro-democracy parties will control
3/4 of the seats, whereas prior to this election they controlled
roughly 1/4 of the seats. So this is a "historic" reversal at this
level of government.
There have been some "stunning upsets," with well-established pro-CCP
candidates Junius Ho and Michael Tien already losing their seats.
These people have been harshly critical of the pro-democracy
demonstrations, and have threatened jailing and violence of
protesters, even peaceful ones.
In one sense it's only a symbolic victory. The district councils only
control such things as parks and taxicabs. They are not as powerful
as the city's Legislative Council, which controls the citywide
government.
The difference is that anyone is permitted to run for the district
council positions, while the only candidates that can run for the
Legislative Council must first be approved by the CCP in Beijing. So
the local councils are far more democratic, but the Legislative
Council is anti-democratic, but far more powerful.
The huge victory follows five months of pro-democracy street protests,
mostly peaceful but sometimes becoming violent. The pro-CCP camp had
referred to a "silent majority" of voters who who would vote for their
candidates, to show their rejection of the violence of the street
protesters. But actually, violence worked both ways in this election.
Some voted for the pro-CCP candidates because of the street protest
violence, but there was also plenty of violence on the other side --
attacks on the peaceful protesters by police and by white-shirt "triad
thugs."
****
**** Hong Kong pro-democracy activists renew their 'Five Demands'
****
These historic upsets are going to "put wind in the sails" of the
pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and the pro-separatists in
Taiwan.
In Hong Kong, pro-democracy activists are now demanding that Carrie
Lam finally respond to the five demands that the protesters announced
months ago.
The first demand was the withdrawal of the "extradition bill," which
would have permitted the CCP to abduct and arrest people in Hong Kong
and bring them to the mainland for prosecution. Carrie Lam finally
withdrew the bill, but only after several months of equivocation.
During that period, the activists expanded what they wanted to a list
of five demands. The five demands are for the withdrawal of the bill,
an agreement not to call the clashes of June 12 a riot, amnesty for
those arrested on that day, a commission inquiry into allegations of
excessive use of force by the police and a push for genuine universal
suffrage.
It was thought that the CCP would never agree to any of these demands
(except the first), but now activists are saying that the climate must
change because of the overwhelming pro-democracy victory in Hong Kong,
which refutes the CCP claim of a "silent majority" supporting CCP.
The activists claim that this victory forces Carrie Lam to open
negotiations on the remaining four demands.
The CCP could do a lot to defuse the situation in Hong Kong by
permitting Carrie Lam to open those negotiations with the
pro-democracy activists. But that would be the smart thing to do, and
as I've written many times, the CCP always one incredibly stupid thing
after another. We'll see, but my expectation is that the CCP will do
something stupid that will make things worse.
****
**** Taiwan's separatists boosted by Hong Kong election
****
Pro-separatists activists in Taiwan are taking note of the historic
election in Hong Kong, and are hoping that they'll affect Taiwan's
presidential race in January.
The CCP considers Taiwan to be part of China, and any move to declare
Taiwan a separation nation would be an act of secession that would
trigger a Chinese military invasion.
Taiwan's current president is Tsai Ing-wen, from the governing
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Tsai is known to favor complete
independence for Taiwan, although she always uses weasel words in
talking about it, so as not to trigger a Chinese invasion. However,
Tsai has spoken openly of her support for the protesters in Hong Kong,
much to the displeasure of the CCP.
Tsai's opponent is Han Kuo-yu, who is the candidate of the Kuomintang
(KMT) party, which favors merging Taiwan with China.
The CCP has been wooing Taiwan for years by saying that Taiwan could
have a "one country, two systems" just like Hong Kong, and wouldn't
that be wonderful? Tsai’s latest campaign advertisement makes the
assurance that “Taiwan will not become Hong Kong”, while calling on
voters to reject the “one country, two systems” model.
Thus, Sunday's elections in Hong Kong are thought to favor Tsai's
re-election. The reasoning is that voters will see the overwhelming
rejection of the pro-CCP candidates as supporting Tsai in Taiwan.
The CCP in Beijing is already close to full-scale panic over what's
happening in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Sunday's vote will prove to the
CCP that their worst fears and anxieties are coming true, and it may
cause them to panic.
As I keep pointing out, the CCP has a record of doing one incredibly
stupid thing after another. I don't know what the CCP will do about
the situation in Hong Kong or Taiwan, but I can say with certainty
that whatever they do, it will make the situation worse.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong,
Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Carrie Lam,Legislative Council,
Pan Democratic party,
Democratic Alliance For The Betterment Of Hong Kong,
Junius Ho, Michael Tien,
Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP,
Han Kuo-yu, Kuomintang, KMT
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray
- Hong Kong pro-democracy activists renew their 'Five Demands'
- Taiwan's separatists boosted by Hong Kong election
****
**** Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray
****
Pro-democracy supporters celebrate huge gains in the district council elections (AP)
In what is being described as a historic election, pro-democracy
activists in Hong Kong's Pan Democracy party have won a massive
victory in electing members for local district councils. The
elections had a record turnout of 71%, while similar elections in 2015
had a turnout of just 47%. Many of those turning out this time were
young first-time voters.
Votes are still being counted. At this time (Sunday evening ET =
Monday morning in Hong Kong), the pro-democracy parties have won 201
seats, while pro-CCP parties have won only 28 seats, with 12 seats for
independents, out of a total of 452 seats. The other 221 seats have
not yet been determined at this time.
Roughly speaking, it appears that pro-democracy parties will control
3/4 of the seats, whereas prior to this election they controlled
roughly 1/4 of the seats. So this is a "historic" reversal at this
level of government.
There have been some "stunning upsets," with well-established pro-CCP
candidates Junius Ho and Michael Tien already losing their seats.
These people have been harshly critical of the pro-democracy
demonstrations, and have threatened jailing and violence of
protesters, even peaceful ones.
In one sense it's only a symbolic victory. The district councils only
control such things as parks and taxicabs. They are not as powerful
as the city's Legislative Council, which controls the citywide
government.
The difference is that anyone is permitted to run for the district
council positions, while the only candidates that can run for the
Legislative Council must first be approved by the CCP in Beijing. So
the local councils are far more democratic, but the Legislative
Council is anti-democratic, but far more powerful.
The huge victory follows five months of pro-democracy street protests,
mostly peaceful but sometimes becoming violent. The pro-CCP camp had
referred to a "silent majority" of voters who who would vote for their
candidates, to show their rejection of the violence of the street
protesters. But actually, violence worked both ways in this election.
Some voted for the pro-CCP candidates because of the street protest
violence, but there was also plenty of violence on the other side --
attacks on the peaceful protesters by police and by white-shirt "triad
thugs."
****
**** Hong Kong pro-democracy activists renew their 'Five Demands'
****
These historic upsets are going to "put wind in the sails" of the
pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and the pro-separatists in
Taiwan.
In Hong Kong, pro-democracy activists are now demanding that Carrie
Lam finally respond to the five demands that the protesters announced
months ago.
The first demand was the withdrawal of the "extradition bill," which
would have permitted the CCP to abduct and arrest people in Hong Kong
and bring them to the mainland for prosecution. Carrie Lam finally
withdrew the bill, but only after several months of equivocation.
During that period, the activists expanded what they wanted to a list
of five demands. The five demands are for the withdrawal of the bill,
an agreement not to call the clashes of June 12 a riot, amnesty for
those arrested on that day, a commission inquiry into allegations of
excessive use of force by the police and a push for genuine universal
suffrage.
It was thought that the CCP would never agree to any of these demands
(except the first), but now activists are saying that the climate must
change because of the overwhelming pro-democracy victory in Hong Kong,
which refutes the CCP claim of a "silent majority" supporting CCP.
The activists claim that this victory forces Carrie Lam to open
negotiations on the remaining four demands.
The CCP could do a lot to defuse the situation in Hong Kong by
permitting Carrie Lam to open those negotiations with the
pro-democracy activists. But that would be the smart thing to do, and
as I've written many times, the CCP always one incredibly stupid thing
after another. We'll see, but my expectation is that the CCP will do
something stupid that will make things worse.
****
**** Taiwan's separatists boosted by Hong Kong election
****
Pro-separatists activists in Taiwan are taking note of the historic
election in Hong Kong, and are hoping that they'll affect Taiwan's
presidential race in January.
The CCP considers Taiwan to be part of China, and any move to declare
Taiwan a separation nation would be an act of secession that would
trigger a Chinese military invasion.
Taiwan's current president is Tsai Ing-wen, from the governing
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Tsai is known to favor complete
independence for Taiwan, although she always uses weasel words in
talking about it, so as not to trigger a Chinese invasion. However,
Tsai has spoken openly of her support for the protesters in Hong Kong,
much to the displeasure of the CCP.
Tsai's opponent is Han Kuo-yu, who is the candidate of the Kuomintang
(KMT) party, which favors merging Taiwan with China.
The CCP has been wooing Taiwan for years by saying that Taiwan could
have a "one country, two systems" just like Hong Kong, and wouldn't
that be wonderful? Tsai’s latest campaign advertisement makes the
assurance that “Taiwan will not become Hong Kong”, while calling on
voters to reject the “one country, two systems” model.
Thus, Sunday's elections in Hong Kong are thought to favor Tsai's
re-election. The reasoning is that voters will see the overwhelming
rejection of the pro-CCP candidates as supporting Tsai in Taiwan.
The CCP in Beijing is already close to full-scale panic over what's
happening in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Sunday's vote will prove to the
CCP that their worst fears and anxieties are coming true, and it may
cause them to panic.
As I keep pointing out, the CCP has a record of doing one incredibly
stupid thing after another. I don't know what the CCP will do about
the situation in Hong Kong or Taiwan, but I can say with certainty
that whatever they do, it will make the situation worse.
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732738637/
Sources:
- Hong Kong elections: Junius Ho and Michael Tien lose district council seats in stunning upsets (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019)
- Hong Kong’s district council elections traditionally handle municipal matters. This year it was a global event as almost 3 million residents clamoured to be heard (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019)
- Massive turnout in Hong Kong vote seen as pro-democracy test (AP, 24-Nov-2019)
- Hong Kong voters deliver pro-democracy message in 'de facto referendum' (Sydney Morning Herald, 25-Nov-2019)
- Hong Kong elections: Pro-democracy groups makes big gains (BBC, 24-Nov-2019)
- Hong Kong’s pro-democracy parties sweeping pro-Beijing establishment aside in local elections (Washington Post, 24-Nov-2019)
- As it happened: pro-Beijing camp licks wounds after hammering in Hong Kong district council elections (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019)
- Pro-democracy candidates win big victory in Hong Kong election (Financial Times, 24-Nov-2019)
- Hong Kong elections: tsunami of disaffection washes over city as pro-Beijing camp left reeling by record turnout and landslide defeat (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 25-Nov-2019)
- Hong Kong voters deliver landslide victory for pro-democracy campaigners (Guardian, London, 24-Nov-2019)
- Hong Kong democrats romp to local election landslide after months of protests (Reuters, 24-Nov-2019)
- Factbox: What people in Hong Kong are saying about district council elections (Reuters, 24-Nov-2019)
- Hong Kong democrats score historic victory amid ongoing protests (Al-Jazeera, 24-Nov-2019)
- Could Hong Kong protests give Tsai Ing-wen the edge in Taiwan’s presidential race? (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 24-Nov-2019)
- Hong Kong District Council election: Pro-democracy candidates win majority of seats, as pro-Beijing camp suffers historic defeat (Hong Kong Free Press, 24-Nov-2019)
Related Articles:
- Teenage protester shot by policeman in Hong Kong's worst day of violence (02-Oct-2019)
- UK-China war of words escalates sharply over Hong Kong riots (04-Jul-2019)
- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China (22-Jun-2019)
- US approves sophisticated weapons sales to Taiwan, despite China's fury (10-Jul-2019)
- Pro-independence rallies in Taiwan press for faster separation from China (21-Oct-2018)
- Taiwan says that China is 'out of control' after El Salvador switches allegiance (22-Aug-2018)
- China says that its military exercises are intended to threaten Taiwan (17-May-2018)
- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
- China's 'Anti-secession law' provokes massive Taiwan riots (27-Mar-2005)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong,
Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Carrie Lam,Legislative Council,
Pan Democratic party,
Democratic Alliance For The Betterment Of Hong Kong,
Junius Ho, Michael Tien,
Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP,
Han Kuo-yu, Kuomintang, KMT
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
