11-26-2019, 08:29 AM
** 26-Nov-2019 World View: Hong Kong and Taiwan
The CCP thugs really don't care about anything except themselves and
their Mandate from Heaven, so they're baffled by the Hong Kong crisis,
especially since the recent elections shows that most of their working
assumptions have been dead wrong.
China's history is filled with massive anti-government rebellions, and
many of them were triggered by religious movements. That's why the
CCP is so hysterically paranoid about religions. That's why they
beat, torture, rape and jail Christians, Buddhists and Muslims, and
sometimes even Daoists.
The Taiping Rebellion (1852-64) in particular was led by a Christian
convert who believed that he was the son of God and the younger
brother of Jesus. The rebellion began in the south and spread north.
Hong Xiuquan became the very charismatic leader of the God Worshipping
Society, in a domain of southern China called Taiping Tianguo
(Heavenly Kingdom of Eternal Peace). He gained thousands of followers
as his word spread, leading to the massive Taiping Rebellion. The CCP
is VERY well aware of that history. They're also well aware that
Mao's Communist Revolution anti-government rebellion started in the
south and spread north.
So that's the history that the CCP thugs are dealing with. Xi Jinping
would happily just flatten all of Hong Kong if he thought that would
keep him safe. But doing anything so brutal would risk triggering an
anti-CCP rebellion in southern China. Furthermore, both Donald Trump
and the US Congress are tying Hong Kong human rights to US-China trade
and sanctions, and the Chinese are increasingly desperate for a trade
deal. This infuriates the CCP thugs who say that Hong Kong policy is
the internal affair of China, and that the barbarians in Washington
should never dare to criticize the leaders of the Master Race.
So I'm in agreement with those analysts who say that the CCP will NOT
send in the army -- since the army can't accomplish anything anyway
that the local police can't accomplish. As things stand now, it's the
Hong Kong police, rather than the CCP, who are receiving international
criticism, and the CCP would like it to remain that way.
However, in my opinion, the CCP would change its policy in a
nanosecond if there is any sign that the protests in Hong Kong are
spreading to the mainland in southern China. This is the real fear of
the CCP thugs, and so they're content to treat Hong Kong protests as
the "new normal" for the time being.
Hong Kong and Taiwan are really two completely different situations,
since Hong Kong is officially a territory of China, while Taiwan
is viewed internationally as an independent nation, despite the curses
of the CCP thugs.
Then there's also the problem there would be no military response if
China's military started smashing Hong Kong since, after all, it
is officially a territory of China. On the other hand, Taiwan has
a mutual defense treaty with the US, and a military invasion of Taiwan
would almost certainly lead to a war with the US.
So the two situations are completely different, and a violent crackdown
in Hong Kong would not necessarily lead to an invasion of Taiwan at
all.
However, any sort of internal rebellion on the mainland would change
the CCP calculation, and lead to diversionary invasions of Japan and
Taiwan. If you're looking for a time interval, I would guess several
months after the internal rebellion began.
This is a very interesting article, because it shows how China's
economy is falling apart at the edges, and as Higgie always points
out: "While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the
capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently."
In the case of China, this would be one of China's massive internal
rebellions, and this would lead quickly to an external war as a
diversionary tactic.
Fantastic! This is a really great analysis.
The only thing that I would add is that you may be assigning too much
rationality to the CCP. The strategy of a "warmup" war is not
realistic in a generational Crisis era, when people are highly
nationalistic and xenophobic, and do not have the patience for a
"warmup." At the first sign of any military clash of any kind, the
nationalists in China would be calling for a full-scale invasion of
Japan and Taiwan, and things would start to move.
richard5za Wrote:> Both Hong Kong and Taiwan are regarded by the CCP as Chinese
> territory so there is a linkage
> I wonder what will eventually happen in Hong Kong? If CCP past
> behavior is the guideline it will be a heavy handed response. And
> then what will that create? Pro-democracy freedom fighters have a
> history of support. Could this be the start of regional
> war?
The CCP thugs really don't care about anything except themselves and
their Mandate from Heaven, so they're baffled by the Hong Kong crisis,
especially since the recent elections shows that most of their working
assumptions have been dead wrong.
China's history is filled with massive anti-government rebellions, and
many of them were triggered by religious movements. That's why the
CCP is so hysterically paranoid about religions. That's why they
beat, torture, rape and jail Christians, Buddhists and Muslims, and
sometimes even Daoists.
The Taiping Rebellion (1852-64) in particular was led by a Christian
convert who believed that he was the son of God and the younger
brother of Jesus. The rebellion began in the south and spread north.
Hong Xiuquan became the very charismatic leader of the God Worshipping
Society, in a domain of southern China called Taiping Tianguo
(Heavenly Kingdom of Eternal Peace). He gained thousands of followers
as his word spread, leading to the massive Taiping Rebellion. The CCP
is VERY well aware of that history. They're also well aware that
Mao's Communist Revolution anti-government rebellion started in the
south and spread north.
So that's the history that the CCP thugs are dealing with. Xi Jinping
would happily just flatten all of Hong Kong if he thought that would
keep him safe. But doing anything so brutal would risk triggering an
anti-CCP rebellion in southern China. Furthermore, both Donald Trump
and the US Congress are tying Hong Kong human rights to US-China trade
and sanctions, and the Chinese are increasingly desperate for a trade
deal. This infuriates the CCP thugs who say that Hong Kong policy is
the internal affair of China, and that the barbarians in Washington
should never dare to criticize the leaders of the Master Race.
So I'm in agreement with those analysts who say that the CCP will NOT
send in the army -- since the army can't accomplish anything anyway
that the local police can't accomplish. As things stand now, it's the
Hong Kong police, rather than the CCP, who are receiving international
criticism, and the CCP would like it to remain that way.
However, in my opinion, the CCP would change its policy in a
nanosecond if there is any sign that the protests in Hong Kong are
spreading to the mainland in southern China. This is the real fear of
the CCP thugs, and so they're content to treat Hong Kong protests as
the "new normal" for the time being.
Guest Wrote:> I have relatives in Taipei. I would like to ask the writer of this
> blog (and any others who read it) how long an interval would there
> be between a violent crackdown in Hong Kong and an invasion of
> Taiwan? This is a serious question.
Guest Wrote:> I would like to add that some local media say an invasion is
> imminent, but I don't think these people really know anything. The
> same people said we would be invaded in 1997.
Hong Kong and Taiwan are really two completely different situations,
since Hong Kong is officially a territory of China, while Taiwan
is viewed internationally as an independent nation, despite the curses
of the CCP thugs.
Then there's also the problem there would be no military response if
China's military started smashing Hong Kong since, after all, it
is officially a territory of China. On the other hand, Taiwan has
a mutual defense treaty with the US, and a military invasion of Taiwan
would almost certainly lead to a war with the US.
So the two situations are completely different, and a violent crackdown
in Hong Kong would not necessarily lead to an invasion of Taiwan at
all.
However, any sort of internal rebellion on the mainland would change
the CCP calculation, and lead to diversionary invasions of Japan and
Taiwan. If you're looking for a time interval, I would guess several
months after the internal rebellion began.
utahbob Wrote:> You might find this interesting. As the saying goes "follow the
> money." How to Conduct Business with Chinese Companies That See a
> Dark Future By Dan Harris on November 13, 2019
> https://www.chinalawblog.com/2019/11/how...uture.html
This is a very interesting article, because it shows how China's
economy is falling apart at the edges, and as Higgie always points
out: "While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the
capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently."
In the case of China, this would be one of China's massive internal
rebellions, and this would lead quickly to an external war as a
diversionary tactic.
utahbob Wrote:> John, good analysis on your comment dated Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:02
> pm. Worse case scenario, it would be like Budapest in 1956 before
> the UN would try to declare a ceasefire for evacuation of
> foreigners.
> This is just my opinion, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is
> pretty vulnerable to fail due to more internal than external
> forces. I would like to state that the CCP is the latest version
> of the Mandarins that has ruled China for the past thousands of
> years. Only 6 to 7 per cent of the Chinese population are members
> of the CCP. This segment of China will fight tooth and nail for
> the CCP.
> One of the more telling facts is the amount of money and energy is
> spent to control its population versus spent on the People’s
> Liberation Army for external defense. It has an army of occupation
> (The People’s Armed Police), information control (Great Fire Wall)
> and surveillance and coordination apparatus (Ministry of State
> Security) with its neighborhood dragnet, digitized “social credit”
> systems and other enforcement systems. The mass detention system
> is getting its first run with the Uighurs and I would bet soon
> other ethnic minorities such as the Mongols, Tibetans, Tajik,
> Korean... will get their turn unfortunately.
> A significant inflection point will be the breakdown of the
> information control system. It is crumbling already due to the
> lack of trust, creditability and cynicism. Chinese people are
> trying to move money out of China or move out completely. I have
> seen this personally.
> Personally, I think there will be war, but not between the US and
> PRC. The general US population is war adverse and a civil war in
> China will not be an existential threat to the US if contained
> within the borders of China. The only action with the US military
> will be the conduct of a Non-combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO)
> from Shanghai, Shenzhen, Dalian and other major cities with
> concentrations of Americans and Westerners.
> John you stated in your book that the odds are tilting to a PRC
> versus Japan knife fight, but I think a warmup will be easier for
> the PRC to go after Taiwan or Vietnam. It would be easier for the
> PLA, PLAF and PLAN to get operational experience. Japan would be
> bloody and you said and I agree, the US would stand behind
> Japan. It would be less like for a USA/PRC conflict over Taiwan
> and/or Vietnam.
> You might find this interesting:
> https://twitter.com/GregPoling/status/11...1458026496 I would
> bet a Sam Adams winter lager that this has been war-gamed by PACOM
> already.
Fantastic! This is a really great analysis.
The only thing that I would add is that you may be assigning too much
rationality to the CCP. The strategy of a "warmup" war is not
realistic in a generational Crisis era, when people are highly
nationalistic and xenophobic, and do not have the patience for a
"warmup." At the first sign of any military clash of any kind, the
nationalists in China would be calling for a full-scale invasion of
Japan and Taiwan, and things would start to move.
