12-09-2019, 11:59 AM
** 09-Dec-2019 World View: Start of World War III
I think you're contemplating a Pearl Harbor style attack. I know you
have my book on war between China and Japan, and in the chapters on
theory of war, I describe how world wars start -- usually with some
trivial military clash that escalates. The massive attacks come
later. The attack on Pearl Harbor came four years after war had
already begun between Japan and China.
Right now, the populations of many countries have become extremely
nationalistic and xenophobic. This is in contrast to the 1990s, when
the WW II survivors were running things. At that time, a minor
military clash would fizzle quickly, while today it would be much more
likely to escalate.
So I expect WW III to begin with some small confrontation that
escalates, with nuclear weapons not used until months or years later.
This could happen, for example, in Kashmir, the South China Sea, or
the Mideast.
The most interesting example of such a possible confrontation would be
a clash between Chinese and Japanese assets in Central Asia. Since no
one in the West pays any attention to Central Asia, such a
confrontation could escalate to a small war, and the West would be so
consumed with Brexit and impeachment that they wouldn't even know it
was happening. This would be an example of a scenario that could lead
to WW III, as both China and Japan bring in reinforcements and have a
small war for several months. At that point, China might decide to
end the war once and for all by a nuclear attack on Japan, warning the
US not to interfere. Within a few more days or weeks, China might
attack the US -- and this would be the analog to the Pearl Harbor
attack.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Trevor Wrote:> Sometimes I wonder what's holding China back from attacking
> us. They're currently capable of pushing us out of the South and
> East China Sea. Whether they could hold the line against our
> current capabilities. . . not sure. I know not everything is
> public knowledge.
I think you're contemplating a Pearl Harbor style attack. I know you
have my book on war between China and Japan, and in the chapters on
theory of war, I describe how world wars start -- usually with some
trivial military clash that escalates. The massive attacks come
later. The attack on Pearl Harbor came four years after war had
already begun between Japan and China.
Right now, the populations of many countries have become extremely
nationalistic and xenophobic. This is in contrast to the 1990s, when
the WW II survivors were running things. At that time, a minor
military clash would fizzle quickly, while today it would be much more
likely to escalate.
So I expect WW III to begin with some small confrontation that
escalates, with nuclear weapons not used until months or years later.
This could happen, for example, in Kashmir, the South China Sea, or
the Mideast.
The most interesting example of such a possible confrontation would be
a clash between Chinese and Japanese assets in Central Asia. Since no
one in the West pays any attention to Central Asia, such a
confrontation could escalate to a small war, and the West would be so
consumed with Brexit and impeachment that they wouldn't even know it
was happening. This would be an example of a scenario that could lead
to WW III, as both China and Japan bring in reinforcements and have a
small war for several months. At that point, China might decide to
end the war once and for all by a nuclear attack on Japan, warning the
US not to interfere. Within a few more days or weeks, China might
attack the US -- and this would be the analog to the Pearl Harbor
attack.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
