12-09-2019, 04:57 PM
** 09-Dec-2019 World View: Japan vs China in Central Asia
The problem with arguments like this is that they're too logical in a
generational Crisis era. If Japan came to the aid of Japanese
businesses in Central Asia, then they wouldn't do a risk-reward
analysis.
Let's take an example. Japan Tobacco International (JTI) claims to be
the leading tobacco company in Kazakhstan, with offices, a factory,
and hundreds of employees in the country.
There are also Chinese enclaves in Kazakhstan. Let's suppose that a
Chinese and a Japanese got into a fistfight in Kazakhstan. Suppose
that the Chinese community violently attacked a JTI office in
retaliation. (This kind of things happens frequently in China). JTI
asks for protection, and Japan sends a few security personnel. China
counters with a few army personnel. There's some local fighting
between the Japanese and Chinese forces.
There's a temporary truce, but both sides bring in more soldiers. A
month later there's a new clash. Both sides send in more forces. The
clashes spread to other Japanese businesses and Chinese businesses.
The escalation continues.
This is how these wars start. No one makes a conscious, reasoned
decision to start a war. This is how WW I started, this is how WW II
started. In recent times, this is how Israel's 2006 invasion of
Lebanon started, although that fizzed out because Lebanon was in a
generational Awakening era.
This is all a made-up scenario, but this is how WW III is going to
start. Not with a massive missile attack on the US, but with some
minor clash that grows over a period of months, and finally explodes.
Xeraphim1 Wrote:> I don't think Japan would risk war with China over Central
> Asia. Too much risk for too little reward and Japan has been very
> low risk in foreign policy over the past 70 years and Japan has
> little ability to project force outside it's immediate
> neighborhood. They might go to war over the Senkaku Islands but I
> doubt anything further away.
> Considering the number of US forces in Japan and the fact that the
> US and Japan share many bases, any Chinese attack on Japan would
> kill American forces. The US would not be able to stay out of the
> conflict even if it wanted to. That is the ultimate brake on
> Chinese ambitions that doesn't exist in the South China Sea. The
> Philippines would have been wise to not listen to the leftists in
> kicking the US out of Subic Bay and Clarke. China would have
> thought twice or thrice about steeling territory with a major US
> base just a couple hundred km away.
The problem with arguments like this is that they're too logical in a
generational Crisis era. If Japan came to the aid of Japanese
businesses in Central Asia, then they wouldn't do a risk-reward
analysis.
Let's take an example. Japan Tobacco International (JTI) claims to be
the leading tobacco company in Kazakhstan, with offices, a factory,
and hundreds of employees in the country.
There are also Chinese enclaves in Kazakhstan. Let's suppose that a
Chinese and a Japanese got into a fistfight in Kazakhstan. Suppose
that the Chinese community violently attacked a JTI office in
retaliation. (This kind of things happens frequently in China). JTI
asks for protection, and Japan sends a few security personnel. China
counters with a few army personnel. There's some local fighting
between the Japanese and Chinese forces.
There's a temporary truce, but both sides bring in more soldiers. A
month later there's a new clash. Both sides send in more forces. The
clashes spread to other Japanese businesses and Chinese businesses.
The escalation continues.
This is how these wars start. No one makes a conscious, reasoned
decision to start a war. This is how WW I started, this is how WW II
started. In recent times, this is how Israel's 2006 invasion of
Lebanon started, although that fizzed out because Lebanon was in a
generational Awakening era.
This is all a made-up scenario, but this is how WW III is going to
start. Not with a massive missile attack on the US, but with some
minor clash that grows over a period of months, and finally explodes.
