12-15-2019, 06:23 PM
** 15-Dec-2019 World View: Chaotic panic
Everything is connected to everything else, but that's not the point.
I always like to point to the example that no one knows what caused
the 1929 stock market panic to occur on October 28, instead of a few
months earlier or later. It was unexpected. It just happened on
October 28.
The Israeli government panic and invasion of Lebanon on July 12, 2006,
was also unexpected. Why did it occur on that day? Was it because of
the abduction? It's certainly reasonable to assume so.
But here are some questions that are left unanswered:
Did the 1929 panic have to occur at all? I believe so. Did the 2006
Israeli panic have to occur at all? I think so, but I can't prove it.
Some things are just "in the air," and are going to happen one way or
another.
Germany's invasion of Poland was not a panic event like Israel's
invasion of Lebanon, so the same reasoning doesn't apply.
Or maybe it was a panic event, in which case Chamberlain's achievement
may have had no effect at all.
Whether something is a chaotic event has to be proven. Sometimes this
can be done with computer models, by running the model with different
inputs, and finding whether tiny changes to the inputs produce huge
changes in the results. It's hard to do such a test with things like
a military invasion.
The invasion of Poland was not the start of WW II. At that time, WW
II had already been going on for several years. I count the beginning
of WW II as 1937, when a Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in
the woods, and his commander assumed that he had been abducted by the
Chinese, triggering the China-Japan war and quickly leading to the
rape of Nanking. That's a good example of a chaotic event triggering
a war.
(12-15-2019, 03:58 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > So now you're saying the abduction was unconnected to the
> war?
Everything is connected to everything else, but that's not the point.
I always like to point to the example that no one knows what caused
the 1929 stock market panic to occur on October 28, instead of a few
months earlier or later. It was unexpected. It just happened on
October 28.
The Israeli government panic and invasion of Lebanon on July 12, 2006,
was also unexpected. Why did it occur on that day? Was it because of
the abduction? It's certainly reasonable to assume so.
But here are some questions that are left unanswered:
- If there had been an abduction a month earlier or later, would
the same panic and invasion have occurred?
- Could the panic have been triggered by something else -- perhaps a
belligerent speech by Nasrallah?
- Did the panic and invasion have to occur at all?
Did the 1929 panic have to occur at all? I believe so. Did the 2006
Israeli panic have to occur at all? I think so, but I can't prove it.
Some things are just "in the air," and are going to happen one way or
another.
(12-15-2019, 12:45 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > To take an historical example, the policy of Appeasement by
> Chamberlain before WWII most certainly delayed the Europe wide
> portion of WWII. Some argue that the delay was critical to
> rearmament efforts.
Germany's invasion of Poland was not a panic event like Israel's
invasion of Lebanon, so the same reasoning doesn't apply.
Or maybe it was a panic event, in which case Chamberlain's achievement
may have had no effect at all.
Whether something is a chaotic event has to be proven. Sometimes this
can be done with computer models, by running the model with different
inputs, and finding whether tiny changes to the inputs produce huge
changes in the results. It's hard to do such a test with things like
a military invasion.
The invasion of Poland was not the start of WW II. At that time, WW
II had already been going on for several years. I count the beginning
of WW II as 1937, when a Japanese soldier had to pee and got lost in
the woods, and his commander assumed that he had been abducted by the
Chinese, triggering the China-Japan war and quickly leading to the
rape of Nanking. That's a good example of a chaotic event triggering
a war.
