12-20-2019, 11:29 PM
*** 21-Dec-19 World View -- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey
****
![[Image: g191220b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g191220b.jpg)
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ® and Fayez al-Sarraj (L), the head of Libya's Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), meeting in Istanbul on November 27 (Anadolu)
The ongoing civil war / proxy war in Libya escalated sharply on Friday
as warplanes from the renegade government bombed targets in the
capital city Tripoli, as well as Misurata and Sirte.
The internationally recognized government is the Government of
National Accord (GNA), with headquarters in the capital city Tripoli,
in western Libya, led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. On Thursday,
the GNA and Turkey announced that Turkey would be supplying the GNA
with weapons, military advisors and, if requested, soldiers.
The renegade government is headed by General Khalifa Haftar, who
defected from the internationally recognized government in 2014 and
formed a government in eastern Libya in Tobruk, known as the Libyan
National Army (LNA).
The bombing of Tripoli and the two other cities began after the
announcement that Turkey would be supplying military aid to the GNA.
Haftar also issued an ultimatum that all GNA militias must pull out of
the three cities by Sunday evening. Haftar announced on Friday that
his forces were making "pre-emptive airstrikes against three separate
locations near Tripoli that were expected landing points for Turkish
military forces."
GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj asked Turkey, the US and several
European countries to come to their aid.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin said on Thursday said that he was
"in contact with all regional parties to try and end the conflict in
Libya."
It's been known for several months that the Wagner Group, Vladimir
Putin's "private" militia, has been operating in Libya in support of
Haftar. Putin has used Wagner in Syria, Ukraine and Central AFrican
Republic when he wants to intervene militarily, but maintain
deniability by not using the Russian army directly. (See "7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic"
)
On Friday, Russia's Foreign Ministry said that the "possible
deployment of Turkish troops in Libya is a source of worry" because it
"could trigger a reaction from neighboring states."
It's unclear what will happen when Haftar's deadline passes on Sunday
evening, but there is certainly a possibility of a much larger
conflict.
****
**** Brief history of Libya's civil war / proxy war
****
The ongoing civil war / proxy war in Libya is about to be escalated as
the Government of National Accord (GNA) in western Libya in Tripoli
has accepted Turkey's offer of military help. The GNA, headed by
prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj, is the government officially
recognized by the United Nations, the United States and the European
Union, and is militarily supported by Qatar, Italy, the Muslim
Brotherhood, and now Turkey.
Libya's civil war began in 2011 with the "Arab Spring" that was
triggered by the death of a food vendor next door in Tunisia. There
were widespread riots in multiple Arab countries in Spring 2011,
including Libya, where there were hundreds of thousands of Libyan
refugees pouring into neighboring countries, and thousands more
crossing the Mediterranean Sea into Europe. With a growing bloodbath
in Libya, the leader Muammar Gaddafi threatened to kill all
protesters, and crush any enemy, with mass slaughter. With Libya's
civil war destabilizing the entire region, the Arab League unanimously
requested the UN, the US and Europe to enforce a no-fly zone over
Libya, to keep Gaddafi from bombing and killing civilians. Nato
implemented a no-fly zone, but the conflict in Libya continued until
Gaddafi was killed.
In the aftermath, Libya became increasingly lawless and ungovernable.
Libya is a land of hundreds of militias, all competing with one
another for money and power. The United Nations attempted several
times to set up a stable government. The latest attempt is the
Government of National Accord (GNA), which is currently the government
internationally recognized by the UN, US, the EU, and particularly by
Libya's former colonial power, Italy. It is also an an Islamist
government supported by Qatar, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood.
However, in May 2014, General Khalifa Haftar defected from the
government and joined a group of anti-government militias who claimed
to be fighting Islamist terrorists. He was supported by Egypt's
General Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, who overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood
government in Egypt in 2013. Haftar was an ally of Muammar Gaddafi in
the 1969 Libyan revolution, but he turned against Gaddafi in the
1980s, and fled to the U.S. where he apparently became a citizen
living in Virginia and became a CIA asset. He returned to Libya after
the 2011 war. Haftar set up his own capital city in Tobruk in eastern
Libya, where he formed the Libyan National Army (LNA), and backed by
many former military officers as well as militias tied to the cities
of Benghazi, Tobruk and Ajdabiya in the east and Zintan in the west.
Starting in 2014, Haftar's forces moved west with the intention of
defeating the GNA government in Tripoli and taking control. Haftar
was supplied with weapons and backed by warplanes from Egypt and
United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Since then, Qatar and UAE have been supplying weapons to the opposing
sides, the Islamists and secularists, respectively, in Libya, making
it a proxy war. However, the war has continued with neither side
being successful in landing a decisive blow.
But now Turkey is joining Qatar in supplying weapons and military
advisors to the internationally recognized Islamist Government of
National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. So far, this is only advisors and
weapons, but not troops. We'll have to see if this results in a
victory by either side, or if there's a major escalation.
****
**** Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens Egypt, Greece, Cyprus
****
Yes, Dear Reader, there's more.
The military agreement under which Turkey is now providing weapons,
advisors and possibly soldiers to Libya was signed on November 28.
On the same day, the two countries also signed a Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) on "Delimitation Of The Maritime Jurisdiction
Areas In The Mediterranean." In this second agreement, Libya and
Turkey agreed to the boundaries of the continental shelf and the
exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of each country within the Mediterranean
Sea. The result is that they've created a 200-mile wide strip between
their countries that they claim they own as their shared EEZ, and
which are rich in minerals, oil and gas.
However, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus are pointing out that their own EEZ
regions supercede and conflict with the claimed Libya-Turkey EEZ
regions. In particular, the Libya-Turkey EEZ regions interfere with a
gigantic gas field off Egypt's coast, and with a planned pipeline
between Israel and Cyprus.
However, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that on the
basis of his country’s occupation since 1974 of Northern Cyprus, he
might lay claim to all waters around Cyprus.
There have already been verbal threats of war between Greece and
Turkey over oil and gas exploration around Cyprus, and those threats
may increase as a result of this new agreement between Libya and
Turkey.
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Tripoli, Misurata, Sirte,
Fayez al-Sarraj, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
General Khalifa Haftar, Tobruk, Benghazi, Ajdabiya,
Libyan National Army, LNA, Russia, Wagner Group,
Egypt, General Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Israel, Cyprus,
continental shelf, exclusive economic zone, EEZ
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey
- Brief history of Libya's civil war / proxy war
- Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens Egypt, Greece, Cyprus
****
**** War in Libya escalates as Tripoli receives military aid from Turkey
****
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ® and Fayez al-Sarraj (L), the head of Libya's Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), meeting in Istanbul on November 27 (Anadolu)
The ongoing civil war / proxy war in Libya escalated sharply on Friday
as warplanes from the renegade government bombed targets in the
capital city Tripoli, as well as Misurata and Sirte.
The internationally recognized government is the Government of
National Accord (GNA), with headquarters in the capital city Tripoli,
in western Libya, led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. On Thursday,
the GNA and Turkey announced that Turkey would be supplying the GNA
with weapons, military advisors and, if requested, soldiers.
The renegade government is headed by General Khalifa Haftar, who
defected from the internationally recognized government in 2014 and
formed a government in eastern Libya in Tobruk, known as the Libyan
National Army (LNA).
The bombing of Tripoli and the two other cities began after the
announcement that Turkey would be supplying military aid to the GNA.
Haftar also issued an ultimatum that all GNA militias must pull out of
the three cities by Sunday evening. Haftar announced on Friday that
his forces were making "pre-emptive airstrikes against three separate
locations near Tripoli that were expected landing points for Turkish
military forces."
GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj asked Turkey, the US and several
European countries to come to their aid.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin said on Thursday said that he was
"in contact with all regional parties to try and end the conflict in
Libya."
It's been known for several months that the Wagner Group, Vladimir
Putin's "private" militia, has been operating in Libya in support of
Haftar. Putin has used Wagner in Syria, Ukraine and Central AFrican
Republic when he wants to intervene militarily, but maintain
deniability by not using the Russian army directly. (See "7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic"
)
On Friday, Russia's Foreign Ministry said that the "possible
deployment of Turkish troops in Libya is a source of worry" because it
"could trigger a reaction from neighboring states."
It's unclear what will happen when Haftar's deadline passes on Sunday
evening, but there is certainly a possibility of a much larger
conflict.
****
**** Brief history of Libya's civil war / proxy war
****
The ongoing civil war / proxy war in Libya is about to be escalated as
the Government of National Accord (GNA) in western Libya in Tripoli
has accepted Turkey's offer of military help. The GNA, headed by
prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj, is the government officially
recognized by the United Nations, the United States and the European
Union, and is militarily supported by Qatar, Italy, the Muslim
Brotherhood, and now Turkey.
Libya's civil war began in 2011 with the "Arab Spring" that was
triggered by the death of a food vendor next door in Tunisia. There
were widespread riots in multiple Arab countries in Spring 2011,
including Libya, where there were hundreds of thousands of Libyan
refugees pouring into neighboring countries, and thousands more
crossing the Mediterranean Sea into Europe. With a growing bloodbath
in Libya, the leader Muammar Gaddafi threatened to kill all
protesters, and crush any enemy, with mass slaughter. With Libya's
civil war destabilizing the entire region, the Arab League unanimously
requested the UN, the US and Europe to enforce a no-fly zone over
Libya, to keep Gaddafi from bombing and killing civilians. Nato
implemented a no-fly zone, but the conflict in Libya continued until
Gaddafi was killed.
In the aftermath, Libya became increasingly lawless and ungovernable.
Libya is a land of hundreds of militias, all competing with one
another for money and power. The United Nations attempted several
times to set up a stable government. The latest attempt is the
Government of National Accord (GNA), which is currently the government
internationally recognized by the UN, US, the EU, and particularly by
Libya's former colonial power, Italy. It is also an an Islamist
government supported by Qatar, Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood.
However, in May 2014, General Khalifa Haftar defected from the
government and joined a group of anti-government militias who claimed
to be fighting Islamist terrorists. He was supported by Egypt's
General Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi, who overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood
government in Egypt in 2013. Haftar was an ally of Muammar Gaddafi in
the 1969 Libyan revolution, but he turned against Gaddafi in the
1980s, and fled to the U.S. where he apparently became a citizen
living in Virginia and became a CIA asset. He returned to Libya after
the 2011 war. Haftar set up his own capital city in Tobruk in eastern
Libya, where he formed the Libyan National Army (LNA), and backed by
many former military officers as well as militias tied to the cities
of Benghazi, Tobruk and Ajdabiya in the east and Zintan in the west.
Starting in 2014, Haftar's forces moved west with the intention of
defeating the GNA government in Tripoli and taking control. Haftar
was supplied with weapons and backed by warplanes from Egypt and
United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Since then, Qatar and UAE have been supplying weapons to the opposing
sides, the Islamists and secularists, respectively, in Libya, making
it a proxy war. However, the war has continued with neither side
being successful in landing a decisive blow.
But now Turkey is joining Qatar in supplying weapons and military
advisors to the internationally recognized Islamist Government of
National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. So far, this is only advisors and
weapons, but not troops. We'll have to see if this results in a
victory by either side, or if there's a major escalation.
****
**** Turkey-Libya maritime agreement threatens Egypt, Greece, Cyprus
****
Yes, Dear Reader, there's more.
The military agreement under which Turkey is now providing weapons,
advisors and possibly soldiers to Libya was signed on November 28.
On the same day, the two countries also signed a Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) on "Delimitation Of The Maritime Jurisdiction
Areas In The Mediterranean." In this second agreement, Libya and
Turkey agreed to the boundaries of the continental shelf and the
exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of each country within the Mediterranean
Sea. The result is that they've created a 200-mile wide strip between
their countries that they claim they own as their shared EEZ, and
which are rich in minerals, oil and gas.
However, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus are pointing out that their own EEZ
regions supercede and conflict with the claimed Libya-Turkey EEZ
regions. In particular, the Libya-Turkey EEZ regions interfere with a
gigantic gas field off Egypt's coast, and with a planned pipeline
between Israel and Cyprus.
However, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that on the
basis of his country’s occupation since 1974 of Northern Cyprus, he
might lay claim to all waters around Cyprus.
There have already been verbal threats of war between Greece and
Turkey over oil and gas exploration around Cyprus, and those threats
may increase as a result of this new agreement between Libya and
Turkey.
Sources:
- Tunisia, Egypt concerned over Turkey’s push in Libya - Arab Weekly (Ahval News, Turkey, 18-Dec-2019)
- Turkey / Erdogan’s statements over Libya, gas seen by Egypt as ‘crossing red lines’ (Arab Weekly, 15-Dec-2019)
- Turkey’s expanded push in Libya sparks concerns in Tunisia (Arab Weekly, 11-Dec-2019)
- Turkish maritime deal a political risk for Libya’s Serraj (Ahval News, Turkey, 7-Dec-2019)
- Full text of Turkey-Libya maritime agreement revealed (NordicMonitor, 5-Dec-2019)
- Libyan government activates cooperation accord with Turkey (Guardian, 20-Dec-2019)
- Turkey backs legitimate government in Libya: Envoy (Anadolu, Ankara, 19-Dec-2019)
- Turkey / Libya's GNA accepts Turkish offer of military support (Al-Jazeera, 19-Dec-2019)
- Turkey Combat Troops Aren’t About to Enter Libya War, Envoy Says (Bloomberg, 19-Dec-2019)
- Turkey signs maritime boundaries deal with Libya amid exploration row (Reuters, 28-Nov-2019)
- Head of Libya parliament says Turkey-Libyan deal invalid (Reuters, 12-Dec-2019)
- Libya confident of Turkey’s military help when needed: Envoy (Hurriyet, Ankara, 19-Dec-2019)
- Egypt and allies seek to confront Turkish involvement in Libya (Jerusalem Post, 18-Dec-2019)
- Turkish-Libyan security, maritime deals spike tensions (Al-Monitor, 17-Dec-2019)
- Erdogan Says Turkey Won't Be Silent Over Russian-Backed Mercenaries in Libya (Moscow Times / Reuters, 20-Dec-2019)
- Tripoli-Based Unity Government Calls for Turkish Intervention in Libya, as Haftar's Forces Bomb Opposition (VOA, 20-Dec-2019)
- UN: Libya in Total Disarray as Violence, Terror and Abuse Grow (VOA, 20-Dec-2019)
Related Articles:
- Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution (14-Nov-2018)
- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic (07-Nov-2018)
- Libya declares state of emergency, closes Tripoli airport (03-Sep-2018)
- Russia denies reports of Russian special forces in eastern Libya (17-Mar-2017)
- A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
- Massive refugee crisis in Libya increases international calls for intervention (02-Mar-2011)
- With Libya in chaos, migrant deal with Italy collapses (16-Jan-2017)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Tripoli, Misurata, Sirte,
Fayez al-Sarraj, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
General Khalifa Haftar, Tobruk, Benghazi, Ajdabiya,
Libyan National Army, LNA, Russia, Wagner Group,
Egypt, General Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Israel, Cyprus,
continental shelf, exclusive economic zone, EEZ
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
