01-03-2020, 02:03 PM
** 03-Jan-2020 World View: China vs Iran
Both China and Iran have evil, malevolant governments -- the hardline
geezer survivors of the 1979 civil war in Iran, the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) thugs in China. And so it would seem that the two are
very similar.
But we can see some dramatic differences that follow from the fact
that China is deep into a generational Crisis era, and is highly
nationalistic and xenophobic, while Iran is in a generational
Awakening era, with a deeply split population, where the young people
are pro-American and pro-Western and want the hardline geezers to be
gone. Imagine if you can, Dear Reader, what would happen if Trump
ordered a drone strike to kill a high-level Chinese military official
as he was traveling in Korea or Taiwan. China would already have
warplanes and missiles in the air. That's what a country does in a
generational Crisis era.
But Iran's reactions are much more subdued. They have lots of pundits
and politicians screaming anti-American statements and threatening the
destruction of America and Israel -- but that's what Iran's pundits
and politicians have been doing for 40 years years anyway. There's no
change. Iran is much more worried about anti-Iran protests in Iran
and Iraq. Worrying about protests is what a country does in a
generational Awakening era.
But China and Iran do in fact have some similar objectives. Neither
of them wants a war with the US unless absolutely necessary. But they
both want American forces to leave their respective regions. The CCP
thugs want American forces gone so that they they have a free hand to
invade and annex Taiwan, and to invade Japan and get revenge for WW II
by colonizing Japan and enslaving the Japanese. Neither of those are
possible with American forces in the region, ready to oppose Chinese
forces.
Iran's hardline geezers want Americans gone so that they can complete
the "Shia crescent" -- replacing the Ottoman Empire with a new Persian
Empire, taking control of Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, pushing
Israel into the sea, and developing nuclear weapons. American forces
in the region are blocking all these objectives. So both China and
Iran just want America, the "Policeman of the World," to disappear and
stop policing.
The speculation continues wildly about how Iran will retaliate.
Various officials in other countries -- Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon
-- are expressing the hope that Iran will not retaliate on the US in
their countries, and any Iran attack on American in one of those
countries would violate that country's sovereignty.
Some speculation is that Hezbollah will conduct some terrorist attack
against America and Israel. Hezbollah is already poor, because of the
anti-Iran sanctions, and weak from having fought for years in Syria.
At any rate, America and Israel are always ready for a Hezbollah
terrorist attack.
One reason that Iran is boxed in is because it has been conducting war
against the United States for years, and has done so with no response,
with impunity. Here are some of the things that Iran has done lately
to attack the US and allies:
So they could repeat these kinds of actions -- which wouldn't even be
a change from what they've been doing anyway. Or they could violate
another country's sovereignty (Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan).
China, in a generational Crisis era, could attack and not worry about
the consequences. Iran, in a generational Awakening era, is very
worried about anti-Iran protests in Iraq and Iran, and would worry
that any attack could backfire on Iran.
So now, as the screaming and outrage against America's assassination
of Soleimani starts to fade, attention will turn to international
criticism of any actions that Iran takes in retaliation.
Both China and Iran have evil, malevolant governments -- the hardline
geezer survivors of the 1979 civil war in Iran, the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) thugs in China. And so it would seem that the two are
very similar.
But we can see some dramatic differences that follow from the fact
that China is deep into a generational Crisis era, and is highly
nationalistic and xenophobic, while Iran is in a generational
Awakening era, with a deeply split population, where the young people
are pro-American and pro-Western and want the hardline geezers to be
gone. Imagine if you can, Dear Reader, what would happen if Trump
ordered a drone strike to kill a high-level Chinese military official
as he was traveling in Korea or Taiwan. China would already have
warplanes and missiles in the air. That's what a country does in a
generational Crisis era.
But Iran's reactions are much more subdued. They have lots of pundits
and politicians screaming anti-American statements and threatening the
destruction of America and Israel -- but that's what Iran's pundits
and politicians have been doing for 40 years years anyway. There's no
change. Iran is much more worried about anti-Iran protests in Iran
and Iraq. Worrying about protests is what a country does in a
generational Awakening era.
But China and Iran do in fact have some similar objectives. Neither
of them wants a war with the US unless absolutely necessary. But they
both want American forces to leave their respective regions. The CCP
thugs want American forces gone so that they they have a free hand to
invade and annex Taiwan, and to invade Japan and get revenge for WW II
by colonizing Japan and enslaving the Japanese. Neither of those are
possible with American forces in the region, ready to oppose Chinese
forces.
Iran's hardline geezers want Americans gone so that they can complete
the "Shia crescent" -- replacing the Ottoman Empire with a new Persian
Empire, taking control of Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, pushing
Israel into the sea, and developing nuclear weapons. American forces
in the region are blocking all these objectives. So both China and
Iran just want America, the "Policeman of the World," to disappear and
stop policing.
The speculation continues wildly about how Iran will retaliate.
Various officials in other countries -- Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon
-- are expressing the hope that Iran will not retaliate on the US in
their countries, and any Iran attack on American in one of those
countries would violate that country's sovereignty.
Some speculation is that Hezbollah will conduct some terrorist attack
against America and Israel. Hezbollah is already poor, because of the
anti-Iran sanctions, and weak from having fought for years in Syria.
At any rate, America and Israel are always ready for a Hezbollah
terrorist attack.
One reason that Iran is boxed in is because it has been conducting war
against the United States for years, and has done so with no response,
with impunity. Here are some of the things that Iran has done lately
to attack the US and allies:
- Shooting down a US drone with a surface-to-air missile
over the Strait of Hormuz in June.
- Multiple attacks on oil tanks in the Persian Gulf and the
Sea of Oman
- Attacking Aramco oil refineries in Saudi Arabia
- Months of artillery attacks on American bases in Iraq,
finally killing an American on Friday.
- Attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad. This is generally considered
to be an act of war.
So they could repeat these kinds of actions -- which wouldn't even be
a change from what they've been doing anyway. Or they could violate
another country's sovereignty (Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan).
China, in a generational Crisis era, could attack and not worry about
the consequences. Iran, in a generational Awakening era, is very
worried about anti-Iran protests in Iraq and Iran, and would worry
that any attack could backfire on Iran.
So now, as the screaming and outrage against America's assassination
of Soleimani starts to fade, attention will turn to international
criticism of any actions that Iran takes in retaliation.
