01-10-2020, 11:40 PM
*** 11-Jan-20 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections
****
![[Image: g200110b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g200110b.jpg)
The Lennon Ship on the campus of Taipei National University of the Arts, built by Hong Kong students in support of Tsai Ing-wen (SCMP)
Taiwan's presidential election occurs on Saturday. The voting has
already begun at the time I'm writing this article (Friday evening
ET), and the voting may be over by the time you read this.
The election results are almost certain to be very bad news for the
leaders of Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It is almost certain that
the current president Tsai Ing-wen will be reelected. Tsai is leader
of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which favors independence
of Taiwan from China.
China has repeatedly threatened military action to invade Taiwan and
annex it to China. Indeed, my book "War Between China and Japan - why
the US must be prepared" contains a detailed historical analysis of
China's current plans to invade Japan to get vengeance for World War
II, and to invade Taiwan to annex it.
In 2005, China passed an "Anti-Secession Law" that stated that China
will take military action in response to anything that even hints at
independence:
<QUOTE>"Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan
independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by
any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or
that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China
should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful re-unification
should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ
non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's
sovereignty and territorial integrity."<END QUOTE>
Passage of this law in China in 2005 provoked massive riots and
anti-China demonstrations in Taiwan.
Tsai's chief opponent is Han Kuo-yu of the opposition Kuomintang
Party, which is the modern day descendant of the Nationalist Party
formed by Chiang Kai-shek in the 1920s. Mao Zedong's Communist
Revolution civil war (1934-49), split northern China from Southern
China. Chiang lost militarily to Mao, and many people in southern
China fled to Hong Kong, which was then a British colony, and from
there to Formosa and Taiwan. Chiang's Kuomintang party maintained
iron rule in Taiwan until the 1990s, when the Taiwan independence
movement led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) began to rise,
especially after the Taiwanese people watched the 1989 Tiananmen
Square massacre in horror. Tsai has one more opponent, James Soong
Chu-yu, chairman of the smaller People First Party.
****
**** Hong Kong chaos boosts Tsai Ing-wen and DPP in Taiwan
****
The victory by Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP in January 2016 was considered
historic because it was a large, decisive victory, and so was a major
setback for the CCP.
However, the DPP lost badly in local elections in 2018, and might well
be on her way to losing the current presidential election, if it were
not for the chaos in Hong Kong from pro-democracy protests that began
in June of last year.
Hong Kong was a British colony prior to 1977, and Taiwan was a
Japanese colony prior to the end of World War II, but Hong Kong and
Taiwan see themselves as very close. They both favor the Cantonese
dialect of the Chinese language over the Mandarin dialect favored by
the CCP. And they both favor freedom and democracy, which the CCP
considers to be a Western plot to overthrow the CCP. They're still in
shock from 1991 when a pro-democracy movement in the Soviet Union
caused the Russian Communist Party to collapse.
The CCP has been trying to convince the people of Taiwan to adopt the
supposedly wonderful "one country, two systems" formula used in Hong
Kong. The argument appeared to be winning until last year, when it
became clear that the CCP was violating the agreement in Hong Kong,
with acts that led to the massive street protests. It became clear to
the Taiwan people that "one country, two systems" would just lead to
putting the island in control of the brutal, violent CCP dictatorship.
A number of analysts have been suggesting that things have calmed down
in Hong Kong because of the approaching Taiwan election, since the
pro-democracy students in Hong Kong are supporting the re-election of
Tsai Ing-wen. This follows a historic victory by pro-democracy
activists in Hong Kong in November. ( "25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray"
)
If this is true, then it means that Saturday's election in Taiwan, if
the DPP wins as expected, has the potential to be extremely
significant. Two major pro-democracy elections at nearly the same
time in Hong Kong and Taiwan may throw the CCP thugs into a panic.
This could be even worse if, once the Taiwan election is over, Hong
Kong returns to extreme chaos again in the weeks to come.
The CCP leaders in Beijing are hoping that if they remain calm, then
the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong will fizzle, and the
pro-independence movement in Taiwan will die. As I've said many
times, the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong cannot end, because all
young people in Hong Kong know that if they marry and bring children
into the world, then the children will be under the control of the
brutal, violent CCP dictatorship in 1947. The same would happen in
Taiwan.
If the Taiwan election goes as expected, then the CCP leaders in
Beijing are going to be looking ahead to a long 12 months in 2020
where the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and the
pro-indenpendence movement in Taiwan will grow. This isn't going to
change, no matter how much the CCP thugs pretend to be "nice."
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources:
Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China,
Tsai Ing-wen, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP,
Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Anti-Secession Law
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections
- Hong Kong chaos boosts Tsai Ing-wen and DPP in Taiwan
****
**** Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections
****
The Lennon Ship on the campus of Taipei National University of the Arts, built by Hong Kong students in support of Tsai Ing-wen (SCMP)
Taiwan's presidential election occurs on Saturday. The voting has
already begun at the time I'm writing this article (Friday evening
ET), and the voting may be over by the time you read this.
The election results are almost certain to be very bad news for the
leaders of Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It is almost certain that
the current president Tsai Ing-wen will be reelected. Tsai is leader
of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which favors independence
of Taiwan from China.
China has repeatedly threatened military action to invade Taiwan and
annex it to China. Indeed, my book "War Between China and Japan - why
the US must be prepared" contains a detailed historical analysis of
China's current plans to invade Japan to get vengeance for World War
II, and to invade Taiwan to annex it.
In 2005, China passed an "Anti-Secession Law" that stated that China
will take military action in response to anything that even hints at
independence:
<QUOTE>"Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan
independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by
any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or
that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China
should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful re-unification
should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ
non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's
sovereignty and territorial integrity."<END QUOTE>
Passage of this law in China in 2005 provoked massive riots and
anti-China demonstrations in Taiwan.
Tsai's chief opponent is Han Kuo-yu of the opposition Kuomintang
Party, which is the modern day descendant of the Nationalist Party
formed by Chiang Kai-shek in the 1920s. Mao Zedong's Communist
Revolution civil war (1934-49), split northern China from Southern
China. Chiang lost militarily to Mao, and many people in southern
China fled to Hong Kong, which was then a British colony, and from
there to Formosa and Taiwan. Chiang's Kuomintang party maintained
iron rule in Taiwan until the 1990s, when the Taiwan independence
movement led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) began to rise,
especially after the Taiwanese people watched the 1989 Tiananmen
Square massacre in horror. Tsai has one more opponent, James Soong
Chu-yu, chairman of the smaller People First Party.
****
**** Hong Kong chaos boosts Tsai Ing-wen and DPP in Taiwan
****
The victory by Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP in January 2016 was considered
historic because it was a large, decisive victory, and so was a major
setback for the CCP.
However, the DPP lost badly in local elections in 2018, and might well
be on her way to losing the current presidential election, if it were
not for the chaos in Hong Kong from pro-democracy protests that began
in June of last year.
Hong Kong was a British colony prior to 1977, and Taiwan was a
Japanese colony prior to the end of World War II, but Hong Kong and
Taiwan see themselves as very close. They both favor the Cantonese
dialect of the Chinese language over the Mandarin dialect favored by
the CCP. And they both favor freedom and democracy, which the CCP
considers to be a Western plot to overthrow the CCP. They're still in
shock from 1991 when a pro-democracy movement in the Soviet Union
caused the Russian Communist Party to collapse.
The CCP has been trying to convince the people of Taiwan to adopt the
supposedly wonderful "one country, two systems" formula used in Hong
Kong. The argument appeared to be winning until last year, when it
became clear that the CCP was violating the agreement in Hong Kong,
with acts that led to the massive street protests. It became clear to
the Taiwan people that "one country, two systems" would just lead to
putting the island in control of the brutal, violent CCP dictatorship.
A number of analysts have been suggesting that things have calmed down
in Hong Kong because of the approaching Taiwan election, since the
pro-democracy students in Hong Kong are supporting the re-election of
Tsai Ing-wen. This follows a historic victory by pro-democracy
activists in Hong Kong in November. ( "25-Nov-19 World View -- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray"
)
If this is true, then it means that Saturday's election in Taiwan, if
the DPP wins as expected, has the potential to be extremely
significant. Two major pro-democracy elections at nearly the same
time in Hong Kong and Taiwan may throw the CCP thugs into a panic.
This could be even worse if, once the Taiwan election is over, Hong
Kong returns to extreme chaos again in the weeks to come.
The CCP leaders in Beijing are hoping that if they remain calm, then
the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong will fizzle, and the
pro-independence movement in Taiwan will die. As I've said many
times, the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong cannot end, because all
young people in Hong Kong know that if they marry and bring children
into the world, then the children will be under the control of the
brutal, violent CCP dictatorship in 1947. The same would happen in
Taiwan.
If the Taiwan election goes as expected, then the CCP leaders in
Beijing are going to be looking ahead to a long 12 months in 2020
where the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and the
pro-indenpendence movement in Taiwan will grow. This isn't going to
change, no matter how much the CCP thugs pretend to be "nice."
John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/
Sources:
- Taiwan election: How Tsai stayed one step ahead (BBC, 10-Jan-2020)
- 'We need more dreams': Taiwan's 'Squad' rallies youth ahead of election (Guardian, London, 10-Jan-2020)
- West studies Beijing’s disinformation campaign in Taiwan looking for clues into its cyber playbook (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 11-Jan-2020)
- Hong Kong / Taiwan / Students from the city take their message to campus on the self-governing island (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 10-Jan-2020)
- Chinese university deletes study forecasting win for Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan election (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 10-Jan-2020)
- China threat looms over presidential election in Taiwan (AP, 10-Jan-2020)
- Taiwan’s Presidential Election: What to Know (Council on Foreign Relations, 19-Dec-2019)
- How China Is Interfering in Taiwan’s Election (Council on Foreign Relations, 7-Nov-2019)
Related Articles:
- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China (22-Jun-2019)
- Historic Hong Kong elections throw relations with China mainland into disarray (25-Nov-2019)
- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
- Taiwan's presidential elections crucial to relationship with China (14-Jan-2012)
- Taiwan / China relations thaw in wake of election and earthquake (28-May-2008)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China,
Tsai Ing-wen, Democratic Progressive Party, DPP,
Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Anti-Secession Law
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
