Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 11-Jan-2020 World View: Corrections to Taiwan article

Guest Wrote:> A few typos, John. But I can only assume these were do to a lack
> of sleep. Hong Kong was British until 1997, not 1977. Hong Kong's
> two systems, one country status ends in 2047, not 1947. Otherwise
> excellent analysis of the situation as usual. Thank you. I bought
> and like both of your GD books.

You're right about the lack of sleep. Thanks for the corrections.
Also, thanks for buying the books. I hope you enjoy them.

Quote:> Cantonese, is very different from Taiwanese
> (Fukienese, Southern Min). When I first studied Taiwanese for 1.5
> years in Taiwan in 1986, Taiwanese was the primary home language
> for about 70% of the people. Mandarin, while the national
> language or the ROC, was spoken natively in the home for only
> about 15% of the people, the Mainlanders. Another 7-8% was Hakka
> Chinese and the remaining 7-8% were from of the 6-7 indigenous
> tribes in the mountain regions. Taiwanese, Mandarin, and Hakka are
> all considered as ethnic Han Chinese.

> Cantonese, Taiwanese, and Mandarin, as well as four other
> "dialects" like the one of Shanghai, are completely different
> languages, all with similar grammars, all united by using the same
> Chinese character system. However, Ethnologue and most
> non-Chinese linguists (or those not pressured by China), will say
> those are all completely different languages. Ethnologue also
> stated, at least as of the last time I looked, that China has
> about 299 different languages.

> Cantonese and Taiwanese are about as mutually intelligible as
> English is to German. Mandarin may rank as French. Cultural
> background have tons of similarities, but the phonic systems,
> particularly the tonal and phonemic aspects, are 100% different. I
> gave up the study of Taiwanese for a number of reasons, then
> became fluent in Mandarin.

(01-10-2020, 11:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > This is not correct. Almost everyone in Taiwan speaks Mandarin,
> not Cantonese; the few that don't speak Mandarin speak Taiwanese,
> which is farther from either Mandarin or Cantonese than they are
> from each other. To the extent that they see each other as close,
> it's only because they are both small democratic Han entities that
> live in the shadow of Mainland China, and thus have some common
> interests.

I thank both readers for their comments, and for the wealth of
information provided. I've corrected the article online to be
more ambiguous.

I note that both of these comments agree that most Taiwanese do NOT
speak Cantonese, which I had assumed would follow from Taiwan's
heritage in people fleeing the communists through Hong Kong in 1949.

However, I also take note of the fact that these two comments appear
to disagree on whether the most commonly spoken language is Mandarin
or Taiwanese.

Here's a comment from a reader in Taiwan:

Quote:> FROM THE ARTICLE: "It is almost certain that the
> current president Tsai Ing-wen will be reelected. Tsai is leader
> of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)"

> I think this is an overstatement at best. Han Guo Yu has bigger
> turn outs at his ralley and way more energy in his base. It
> splits along age lines with young voters opting for Cai and older
> voters opting for Han. In Taiwan there are more old voters than
> young voters and historically the older voters voter turnout has
> been on the order of 80% and young voter turnout has been on the
> order of 60%.

> Consequently I think it is more likely than the media would have
> you believe that Han Gu Yu will win. The weather is good and the
> turnout is going to be huge. It will in any case be very close.
> We are having and election watching party tonight.

I would wonder whether younger voters would have a low turnout in
this election, in view of the effect of the massive pro-democracy
protests by young people in Hong Kong. I would assume that the
events in Hong Kong have energized the young people in Taiwan.

At any rate, events have caught up to the situation:

Quote:> "Taiwan election: Tsai Ing-wen wins second
> presidential term

> 11 January 2020

> Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen has secured a second term after
> sweeping to victory in an election dominated by the island's
> relationship with China.

> With almost all votes counted, Ms Tsai had just over 57% of the
> vote, well ahead of her rival Han Kuo-yu."
> https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51077553

I hope you're enjoying your election watching party. The night
(there) is still young.

Related Article:

** 11-Jan-20 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party expected to win Saturday presidential elections
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200111