Thread Rating:
  • 1 Vote(s) - 5 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Generational Dynamics World View
*** 13-Jan-20 World View -- In historic reversal, Iran admits shooting down passenger plane

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • In historic reversal, Iran admits shooting down passenger plane
  • Why did Iran's government finally admit to shooting down the passenger plane?
  • Iran's 'Vietcong Tet Offensive'
  • Generational analysis of situation in Iran

****
**** In historic reversal, Iran admits shooting down passenger plane
****


[Image: g200112b.jpg]
This image from Wednesday shows the crash site with a bulldozer burying the evidence so that Iran can deny culpability. (AP)

Three days ago, overjoyed Iranian officials were watching as millions
of Iranians were in the streets for the funeral of Iran's Gen. Qassim
Soleimani, who had been killed by an American airstrike. Iranian
officials had thought that, finally!, the Iranian people were
returning to their support the government. As I pointed out in
my daily commentary in the Generational Dynamics forum, this was
mostly a show put on by Iran, and it wouldn't last.

Now the situation has flipped back again. Iranians, who had believed
the government's story that they were winning the war in Iraq against
the Americans, now learn that everything that government has told them
was a lie and cover-up, and that the only result of Iran's missile
attack on Americans was not dead Americans, as the government had
claimed, but hundreds of dead Iranians. There are growing
anti-government demonstrations. The new demonstrations are relatively
small, but they're expected to grow.

For any number of reasons, the decision on Saturday by the government
of Iran to admit to shooting down a Ukrainian airlines PS752 passenger
plane with a missile, killing all 176 people aboard, could turn out to
be the most historically consequential decision of Iran's experiment
with a government of Islamic Shia terror and dictatorship that
was created by the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

For several days, the government made increasingly outlandish lies to
defer blame for shooting down the passenger plane. They bulldozed the
crash site to hide the evidence. They refused to allow international
experts to examine the planes "black boxes." They blamed the crash on
a mechanical error, and they said that the plane has suddenly changed
direction ominously -- both claims that Iranian video showed were
untrue. All this was a lie, and the government knew it was a lie from
the very beginning. Iranians listening to the BBC heard that the US,
Canada and Ukraine said they had evidence to prove that Iran had shot
it down with a missile, but the government of Iran said that the BBC
reports were "fake news," part of the usual anti-Iran plot by the and
Israel.

Finally, on Saturday, Iran admitted shooting it down, saying that
doing so was a "disastrous mistake." General Hossein Salami said, "I
swear to almighty god that I wished I were in that plane and had
crashed with them and had burned but had not witnessed this tragic
incident."

****
**** Why did Iran's government finally admit to shooting down the passenger plane?
****


So, why did Iran do a U-turn and admit to shooting it down?

The narrative in the media today is that Iran was forced to do so by
the conclusive evidence that had been collected and presented by the
United States, Canada, Ukraine, and other sources.

But if you believe that, then you also have to explain why the
Russians have never admitted shooting down the Malaysian Airlines MH17
passenger plane over Ukraine in July 2014, but instead have made one
ridiculous claim after another, for example saying that the US had
purposely shot it down to embarrass Russia. Since then, there have
been numerous deep investigations that prove conclusively that MH17
was shot down by the Russians in eastern Ukraine, using a Russian Buk
missile. But Russia continues to make ridiculous excuses.

So if Iran was forced to admit its "disastrous mistake" after only
five days, then how come Russia still makes one ridiculous claim after
another for five years, and still refuses to admit its own mistake?
What's the difference between Russia and Iran?

There could be several reasons, but from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, the most obvious reason is that Iran is in a
generational Awakening era, and with large and growing younger
generations born since the Islamic Revolution, and these younger
generations are generally pro-Western and pro-American. These younger
generations are coming to power in the government, and they would have
pressured their bosses in the government to tell the truth. The
goverment was also pressured by the large anti-government student
protests, which make Iran look every day more and more like America in
the 1960s and 1970s.

The demostrators are protesting that the government was incompetent
because it kept Tehran airport open at the same time that the armed
forces were launching missiles at American targets in Iraq. In fact,
officials in many countries have been highly critical of Iran for
this. Many have expressed incredulity that Iran would keep Tehran's
airport open in what is essentially a war zone. The passenger plane
that was shot down had just taken off from the airport, and the
Revolutionary Guide forces mistook it for an American missile.

But the main criticisms of the government were, of course, that the
government lied for three days, not only denying that an Iranian
missile had shot down the plane, but also that accusing Western
governments and Western media of "fake news" in claiming that a
missile had shot down the plane.

Protesters point out that the government was claiming that the IRGC
missile attack on Americans in Iraq would achieve victory by driving
the Americans out, but all it accomplished was getting hundreds of
Iranians killed.

****
**** Iran's 'Vietcong Tet Offensive'
****


This has dealt a major blow to the government's credibility. Iran's
government has always blamed every problem on the United States and
Israel, even claiming that peaceful protesters were terrorists funded
by the US. The claims always lacked credibility, but now protesters
will claim that every such claim was a lie. One of the chants on
Sunday was, "They’re lying when they say it’s America. Our enemy is
right here."

I heard one Tehran apologist on the BBC claim that the loss of
credibility was only a small, temporary blip, but if Iranian officials
actually believe that, then they're sadly delusional.

The analogous event during America's last Awakening era, in the 1960s,
was the "Vietcong Tet Offensive." This was a massive military
counterattack by North Vietnam's army in cities and villages across
the entire country, beginning in January 1968. It took weeks for the
American and South Vietnam forces to recapture the cities. The Tet
Offensive was a military disaster for the Vietcong and the North
Vietnam forces.

But it was political victory that won the war by turning Americans
against the war. Americans had been told that the war was nearly
won, and that "we're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel,"
but the Tet Offensive caused Americans, especially students, to believe
those were all lies.

The American government never recovered. President Lyndon Johnson
announced that he would have to step down and not run for reelection.
Richard Nixon became president, but he was relentless accused of lying
about everything. The protests against Nixon became worse and worse,
and eventually Nixon was forced to resign, under threat of
impeachment.

So that's the kind of thing that Iran's government is going to be
facing from now on. Iran's anti-government protests will take on new
energy following the recent disaster.

Does this mean "regime change" in Iran? I've been writing for years
that there will be "regime change" in Iran as it's Awakening era
climax, but it's impossible to predict the timing or scenario.

Last week's events have been so politically disastrous for Iran, that
they may at least trigger some resignations and firings in the regime.
There's a major parliamentary election Iran next month, and that may
bring some changes. But as Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei
becomes increasingly embattled, a more drastic change may occur, just
as happened with Johnson and Nixon in America.

****
**** Generational analysis of situation in Iran
****


The complexity of the current situation in Iran and Iraq provides
me with the opportunity to write a deeper generational analysis.

The last week has been fairly dramatic for me personally, because the
article that I posted on Friday evening stated unequivocally, based on
a generational analysis of Iran and Iraq, that there would be NO WAR
with Iran. (See "4-Jan-20 World View -- Iran faces tough choices after Soleimani assassination"
)

This was at a time when the media was filled with analysts almost
unanimously predicting World War III, and left-wing media and
politicians were saying things like, "I can't see how a war can be
avoided." These idiots have now all been proven wrong, and
Generational Dynamics has, as usual, been proven right.

I reached my conclusion based on Iran's history, dating back at least
to Iran's disastrous 1800s border wars. Whenever I make a prediction
like this, I always take a deep breath and wonder whether this will
finally be the time that I'm wrong, and I look like an idiot.
Fortunately for me and for Generational Dynamics, that didn't happen
this time, and in fact has never happened in hundreds of such
predictions over the years, although this was one of the most
dramatic. What did happen in Iran is completely in line with the
generational analysis I posted. So it's been a relief for the world,
and also for me personally.

One thing that I've learned repeatedly is that the experts in
Washington have no clue what's going on in the world. As I've
mentioned several times in my articles, I learned this in 2006 when
Congressional Quarterly and the London Times did a survey of Mideast
"experts," many with years of experience, and found out that they
didn't know the answers to the simplest questions. ( "Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans"
)

One of things that the experts didn't know was whether al-Qaeda was a
Sunni or Shia organization. Think about that. We had people --
Republicans and Democrats -- making foreign policy who were so
ignorant and stupid that they couldn't answer the simplest questions
about the subject they were supposed to be experts on. (And recall
that Pelosi famously declared that al-Qaeda was not in Iraq. Lol.)

Today's politicians and media are obviously just as ignorant, which is
obvious every time they open their mouths. I've previously singled
out the Connecticut senator Chris Murphy for criticism because
al-Jazeera has run video from him several times, and referred to him
as an "expert." He's been in Congress since 2007 and on the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee since 2013, so he should know what's going
on. And yet, he says the most incredibly stupid things. My theory is
that the reason that al-Jazeera runs video from him and others like
him is that they want to show to their Arab audience how stupid the
Americans are.

The generational analysis I'm about to give is not rocket science, but
it's beyond the mental capacity of almost everyone, since it requires
the ability to understand percentages and to do math at least the
fourth grade level, and most people cannot do fourth grade math. Say
what you want about Boomers, but we knew how to do percentages. But
in the past few decades, SAT scores have been falling, and college
graduates are so dumb, they don't even know how to read a map or
understand historical concepts. If you listen to many politicians,
reporters and analysts today talk about the economy and Socialism, you
quickly realize that they're too dumb to even do second grade
arithmetic.

It's obvious that none of the experts on tv has any idea of what's
going on in Iran, because they don't have the mental capacity to
understand it. Also, they know absolutely nothing about Iran's
history, because that's also beyond their mental capacity.

So let's take a look at what you'd have to know if you want to
understand Iran today. You may wish to have a pencil and paper
handy to take notes.
  • It would be nice for you to know something about the
    relationship between the Constitutional Revolution and the Islamic
    Revolution in Iran's history, but that would be asking too much.

  • You'd have to recognize the importance of the Iran/Iraq war of the
    1980s. But why would anyone know about that? There are two wars
    going on right now -- in Syria and Yemen -- and there have been other
    recent wars -- four Gaza wars, Lebanon war, Iraq war, Gulf war -- so
    why would anyone know anything about this ancient antedeluvian
    Iran/Iraq war that happened so long ago that it's totally meaningless
    and forgotten today?

  • Then you'd have to be able to make generational connections. This
    is very abstract, and few people are capable of it, given that few
    people can do fourth grade percentage problems. Suppose a poll in
    2000 revealed that only 20% of 30-40 year old Iranians believe that
    ABC is true, and that a poll taken today says that 80% of 30-40 year
    olds believe that ABC is true. Most analysts, reporters, economists
    and politicians would say, omigod, 30-40 year olds have changed their
    minds about ABC. These baffled people fall back on the usual
    extraneous factors, such as changed poverty levels or a change in the
    US administration, since that all they're mentally capable of
    understanding. They would not be mentally capable of understanding
    that 30-40 year olds in 2000 would be 50-60 years old today, and 10-20
    year olds in 2000 would be 30-40 years old today, and so they haven't
    changed their minds at all. Examining the two poll results would
    reveal that everyone believes the same thing they did 20 years ago,
    but they've just gotten older. That concept is completely foreign and
    incomprehensible to the mainstream media, economists and analysts, but
    it's crucial to understanding what's going on in Iran today.

  • Applying that abstract reasoning to the current situation, the
    students who were beaten, tortured and jailed by Iran's security
    policy for peaceful demonstrations 20 years ago are now going to be
    30-40 years old, and they're obviously going to remain extremely angry
    at the current hardline leaders, even if they did crowd the streets at
    Solomeini's funeral.

  • Even more recently, those 30-40 year olds have not forgotten
    that just a month ago, Solomeini was overseeing the torture,
    rape, jailing and murder of peaceful anti-government protesters.

  • Applying the same abstract reasons, everyone over age 35 in Iran
    today has some personal memory of the Iran/Iraq war, and how their
    fathers, uncles and brothers were tortured and killed by Iraqis. For
    these people, Solomeini is a war hero, and those feelings haven't gone
    away. So feelings about Solomeini are going to be mixed -- many
    revere him for fighting the Iraqis, and also loathe him for torturing
    and killing peaceful Iranian protesters. Once again, this is way too
    nuanced and abstract for anyone in Washington to understand.

  • Finally, the situation in Iraq is even more nuanced. On the one
    hand, Solomeini is a war criminal because of the Iran/Iraq war, and
    Solomeini has been overseeing the Iran-backed People's Mobilization
    Forces (PMFs) in torturing, beating and jailing peaceful anti-Iran
    protesters, but on the other hand, Iran is pretty much in control of
    Iraq's government, which is pretty much in shambles anyway.

So if you understand the above, they you understand why my unequivocal
prediction that there would NOT be a war with Iran turned out to
be true, while the idiots on TV and in the media who were predicting
WW III really are idiots.

And quite seriously, Dear Reader, if you listen to these guys in the
mainstream media, you should understand that they literally don't have
a clue about anything. They probably couldn't find Iran on a map, and
they certainly know nothing about Iran's history. You might as well
get your news from the Saturday morning cartoon shows.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: Iran's Struggle for Supremacy
-- Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East"
(Generational Theory Book Series, Book 1), September 2018, Paperback:
153 pages, over 100 source references, $7.00, https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Suprem...732738610/

Sources:

Related Articles:



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Qassim Soleimani, Iraq,
Ukraine, Ukrainian Airlines PS752,
Vietnam, Vietcong, Tet Offensive,
Constitutional Revolution, Islamic Revolution,
Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-14-2016, 03:21 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 05-23-2016, 10:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by radind - 08-11-2016, 08:59 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 01-18-2017, 09:23 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 02-04-2017, 10:08 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 03-13-2017, 03:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 02:56 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by SomeGuy - 03-15-2017, 03:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 05-30-2017, 01:04 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 07-08-2017, 01:34 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-09-2017, 11:07 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 08-10-2017, 02:38 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 10-25-2017, 03:07 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by rds - 10-31-2017, 06:33 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by noway2 - 11-20-2017, 04:31 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-28-2017, 11:00 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 12-31-2017, 11:14 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 06-22-2018, 02:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:54 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-19-2018, 12:43 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-25-2018, 02:18 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 07-11-2018, 01:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-18-2018, 03:42 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Galen - 08-19-2018, 04:39 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 09-25-2019, 11:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by John J. Xenakis - 01-13-2020, 12:12 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-09-2020, 02:11 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Camz - 03-10-2020, 10:10 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 03-12-2020, 11:11 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by JDG 66 - 03-16-2020, 03:21 PM
RE: 58 year rule - by Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020, 11:17 AM
RE: 58 year rule - by John J. Xenakis - 04-02-2020, 12:25 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by Isoko - 05-04-2020, 02:51 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by tg63 - 01-04-2021, 12:13 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by CH86 - 01-05-2021, 11:17 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-10-2021, 06:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-11-2021, 09:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-12-2021, 02:53 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 03:58 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-13-2021, 04:16 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by mamabug - 01-15-2021, 03:36 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-19-2021, 03:03 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 08-21-2021, 01:41 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 06:06 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-27-2022, 10:42 PM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: Generational Dynamics World View - by galaxy - 02-28-2022, 04:08 PM

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Why the social dynamics viewpoint to the Strauss-Howe generational theory is wrong Ldr 5 4,835 06-05-2020, 10:55 PM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  Theory: cyclical generational hormone levels behind the four turnings and archetypes Ldr 2 3,412 03-16-2020, 06:17 AM
Last Post: Ldr
  The Fall of Cities of the Ancient World (42 Years) The Sacred Name of God 42 Letters Mark40 5 4,701 01-08-2020, 08:37 PM
Last Post: Eric the Green
  Generational cycle research Mikebert 15 16,308 02-08-2018, 10:06 AM
Last Post: pbrower2a
Video Styxhexenhammer666 and his view of historical cycles. Kinser79 0 3,345 08-27-2017, 06:31 PM
Last Post: Kinser79

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 58 Guest(s)