01-13-2020, 01:37 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2020, 04:19 PM by John J. Xenakis.)
** 13-Jan-2020 World View: Reza Pahlavi son of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi
The Crisis Climax is typically a bloody, genocidal military event
that establishes the winner of the war, and the loser. It can
take many forms.
The Awakening Climax is typically a chaotic political event that
establishes the winner of the political struggle between the
generations of survivors of the preceding crisis war and the
generations growing up after the war, and resolves unfinished business
from the end of the crisis war.
The Awakening Climax, which typically occurs 30-50 years after the
Crisis Climax, can be thought of as a political event that settles and
solidifies the changes that occurred as a result of the Crisis Climax.
If the preceding crisis war was an internal ethnic or racial civil
war, then the Awakening Crisis is typically resolved with a political
victory by the older generations (survivors of the war), which
represent the winning race or ethnic group.
If the preceding crisis war was an external war, then typically the
country has political freedom, and the Awakening crisis is a free
political battle that is typically resolved with a political victory
by the younger generations (growing up after the war).
Either way, it signals the beginning of the Unraveling Era.
Some examples of Awakening climaxes:
Identifying an Awakening Climax is a lot harder than identifying a
Crisis Climax, so this is an area that requires more research.
At any rate, with regard to Iran, the constitution that Khomeini set
up in 1979 is clearly defective, with no checks and balances, as I
described in my book. So I would expect that some kind of change to
the constitution would come out of the Awakening Climax. If there's a
reversion to the constitution adopted by the Constitutional Revolution
in 1906, then Reza Pahlavi, who is a leader of Iran's opposition, may
become the Shah of Iran, the country's new leader. He is the son of
Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, the last official Shah of Iran. He's
quite popular among opposition groups outside of Iran.
However, all this is speculative and, even if it occurs, it may not
occur for years.
Just promise the people whatever nonsense they want to hear, and then
forget about it when you get elected.
The last Shah of Iran was almost as violent and repressive as
Khomeini, so I don't expect much change.
---- Related:
** 9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151109
(01-12-2020, 07:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I agree that would be ideal. Reality is rarely ideal, though.
> John, wouldn't a change of form of government be inconsistent with
> an awakening era? If you think it's consistent, can you outline
> how you think it could happen?
The Crisis Climax is typically a bloody, genocidal military event
that establishes the winner of the war, and the loser. It can
take many forms.
The Awakening Climax is typically a chaotic political event that
establishes the winner of the political struggle between the
generations of survivors of the preceding crisis war and the
generations growing up after the war, and resolves unfinished business
from the end of the crisis war.
The Awakening Climax, which typically occurs 30-50 years after the
Crisis Climax, can be thought of as a political event that settles and
solidifies the changes that occurred as a result of the Crisis Climax.
If the preceding crisis war was an internal ethnic or racial civil
war, then the Awakening Crisis is typically resolved with a political
victory by the older generations (survivors of the war), which
represent the winning race or ethnic group.
If the preceding crisis war was an external war, then typically the
country has political freedom, and the Awakening crisis is a free
political battle that is typically resolved with a political victory
by the younger generations (growing up after the war).
Either way, it signals the beginning of the Unraveling Era.
Some examples of Awakening climaxes:
- 1918 Germany: the Imperial government of Germany is replaced
by the Weimar Republic.
- 1974 America: Richard Nixon is forced to resign.
- 1989 Czechoslovakia: The Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia ended
communist rule, and turned the country into a parliamentary
republic.
- 1989 China: Tiananmen Square massacre turned China into a far more
oppressive dictatorship.
Identifying an Awakening Climax is a lot harder than identifying a
Crisis Climax, so this is an area that requires more research.
At any rate, with regard to Iran, the constitution that Khomeini set
up in 1979 is clearly defective, with no checks and balances, as I
described in my book. So I would expect that some kind of change to
the constitution would come out of the Awakening Climax. If there's a
reversion to the constitution adopted by the Constitutional Revolution
in 1906, then Reza Pahlavi, who is a leader of Iran's opposition, may
become the Shah of Iran, the country's new leader. He is the son of
Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, the last official Shah of Iran. He's
quite popular among opposition groups outside of Iran.
However, all this is speculative and, even if it occurs, it may not
occur for years.
(01-13-2020, 12:48 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I once saw an interview of the son of the late Reza Shah Pahlavi
> II, and he said that he would function much like Juan Carlos of
> Spain... promoting a liberal and largely-secular Iran that
> respects the religious sensibilities of the People. Whatever that
> means...
Just promise the people whatever nonsense they want to hear, and then
forget about it when you get elected.
The last Shah of Iran was almost as violent and repressive as
Khomeini, so I don't expect much change.
---- Related:
** 9-Nov-15 World View -- Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151109
