01-27-2020, 01:05 PM
** 27-Jan-2020 World View: Wuhan coronavirus by the numbers
Various analysts have been providing some numbers.
Every person who has the disease will transmit to 2-3 other people,
which is about the same level as the flu. In order for the disease to
die out, that number would have to be less than 1.
Lethality: 3% of infected people die, according to official figures
from China -- about 10 times higher than the flu, but with SARS, 10%
of infected people died (about 800 deaths out of 8000 people
infected).
The Chinese say that 81 people have died out of 3,000 people infected.
A lot of people believe that the Chinese are lying, and that the
numbers are far higher.
Before this is over, it's possible that millions of people will be
infected, which will result in a huge number of deaths, far higher
than with SARS.
There is one huge question that hasn't been fully answered: To what
extent can a person spread the disease before having symptoms. The
standard tools for containing the spread of a disease all require
testing people for symptoms and isolating the ones with symptoms. If
there's no way to determine infections by testing for symptoms, then
the situation will be much worse.
---- Source:
-- Coronavirus death toll jumps above 80, five US cases confirmed:
Everything we know
https://www.cnet.com/how-to/coronavirus-...g-we-know/
(Cnet, 27-Jan-2020)
Various analysts have been providing some numbers.
Every person who has the disease will transmit to 2-3 other people,
which is about the same level as the flu. In order for the disease to
die out, that number would have to be less than 1.
Lethality: 3% of infected people die, according to official figures
from China -- about 10 times higher than the flu, but with SARS, 10%
of infected people died (about 800 deaths out of 8000 people
infected).
The Chinese say that 81 people have died out of 3,000 people infected.
A lot of people believe that the Chinese are lying, and that the
numbers are far higher.
Before this is over, it's possible that millions of people will be
infected, which will result in a huge number of deaths, far higher
than with SARS.
There is one huge question that hasn't been fully answered: To what
extent can a person spread the disease before having symptoms. The
standard tools for containing the spread of a disease all require
testing people for symptoms and isolating the ones with symptoms. If
there's no way to determine infections by testing for symptoms, then
the situation will be much worse.
---- Source:
-- Coronavirus death toll jumps above 80, five US cases confirmed:
Everything we know
https://www.cnet.com/how-to/coronavirus-...g-we-know/
(Cnet, 27-Jan-2020)
