01-28-2020, 10:22 AM
(01-27-2020, 10:03 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(01-27-2020, 01:05 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Lethality: 3% of infected people die, according to official figures
from China -- about 10 times higher than the flu, but with SARS, 10%
of infected people died (about 800 deaths out of 8000 people
infected).
3% of confirmed cases. However, there are likely lots of cases that have not been confirmed, especially since they've actually managed to identify several asymptomatic cases. The incubation period is between 2 and 14 days, so the average isn't far from the 6 days of other coronaviruses.
The mayor of Wuhan says 5 million of the 11 million population has already left, many for travel associated with the Chinese New Year's holiday. The quarantine is going to be ineffective and counterproductive.
Yes, the people fled when they could, and will again if they can. The adjacent river is narrow and impossible to police, so things can get very bad all over the country. Will that translate into widespread disease elsewhere? If so, and the diseased are not apparently ill until after they have had the chance to spread the virus, a pandemic is very possible. A lot of unknowns there, to be sure.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
